Odd-Even: Vision, Not Knee-Jerk Reaction Required To Save Urban India

One thing is clear from the ‘Odd-Even’ debate, without addressing issues of unplanned urbanisation, all we would be doing is lurch from one urban crisis to another.

Those who remember the legendary traffic jams of Delhi and the fume-spewing DTC buses, would tell us that Delhi has been a polluted city since long. Shift to unleaded petrol, low-sulphur diesel, catalytic converters, introduction of CNG-based public transport, resurrection of Metro Rail—all of these owe their adoption to Delhi’s growing pollution.

A recent IIT Kanpur study on apportionment of particulate pollution might have profound effect on future course of events. The most visible of which might be the banning of registration of vehicles with diesel engines with capacity of two litres or more in Delhi by the Supreme Court for a period of three months and, the odd-even rule enforced by the Delhi Government.

Would odd-even scheme result in reduction of air pollution in Delhi?

It is interesting to note that the ‘odd-even’ would reduce pollution by just 1 percent, or even less, and that too if we assume that it works perfectly. Not just this, Gaurav Dalmia informs us that this arrangement has failed in several cities shortly upon introduction. A FirstPost analysis reveals that predictably, the impact hasn’t been felt, with pollution levels still remaining what they were.

The additional steps which are required to effectively contain pollution would still take some more time, and some are not even talked about. Thus, odd-even rule is clearly not the way to go for addressing pollution, though it may only serve the purpose of reducing the number of vehicles on the road to some extent and easing parking in the short term.

It would be interesting to evaluate, at a later date, as to why was this scheme attempted when cars taken off the roads could would reduce pollution by just 1 percent? (as per the IIT-Kanpur study) Citizenry rose to the occasion but what about the decisions which only government can take?

Incidentally the ‘odd-even’ rule applies even to the vehicles which are coming from outside of the city. Delhi has been a key centre for trade and services and the odd-even rule upsets that if the mobility of stakeholders in Delhi’s economy gets impacted. Delhi is part of a continuum which spans Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and also the states of Punjab, Himachal and Madhya Pradesh. Did the decision makers evaluate that even-odd scheme hits out at the basic mobility needs of the economy?

Let us go a step further. World over, people agree that an efficient economy should deploy latent or lesser used resources. Concept of shared economy rests on this premise. I seldom come across people who love driving down to their work places in Delhi. To drive in the morning is not as taxing as it is to drive back after a tiring day. Surely, an efficient and safe taxi service like ones seen in several of mature cities, which have even greater congestion than Delhi, is one ready answer. Unfortunately, taxi hailing services and aggregation platforms for on demand mobility have been banned and position of law remains unclear.

The principal reason being given is—taxis get registered in a different tax structure. Centre and the State government can readily work out deployment of private vehicles on a model like that of Uber (or Ola) legally integrated in taxi hailing apps-an extremely user-friendly, on demand, personal mobility option. This would take care of the key mobility need of private vehicle users-that of on demand mobility. Aggregation of spare mobility capacity with readily available tools can provide more economically efficient use of cars and satisfy need of having a car available on demand. This would result in impacting the demand of the private vehicles for personal mobility.

An Emotional Reaction

A leading media house has been running an emotional ad campaign featuring young kids urging people to follow the odd-even rule. The fact that action taken as yet would have less than 1% impact, would possibly lead to the call of putting two wheelers which have much larger contribution to poor air quality, also in the ‘odd-even’ rule. This in turn would severely dent personal mobility and commerce, casting a proverbially long shadow while at the same time affecting people who would find use of taxis for daily commute expensive.

Urbanisation & Mobility

The IIT Kanpur study identifies that in a circle of 300 km about Delhi, pollution containment measures need to be taken. This takes me to the concept of golden distance and economic circles introduced here. Further, the need of developing 50 km and 500 km mobility links about existing cities was discussed here, with 500 km radius circle about a city termed as an economic circle-new proposed unit for mobility and urban planning.

Also discussed was the fact that India has to gear up for more than 50% of urban population in just another three decades from the current figure of about a third of our population. During this period the population would grow from current 1.3 bn to more than 1.6 bn. Even today, about a crore people move out of the villages every year. Such linkages would provide the axes where the new settlements can emerge. Planning for such economic circles alone can avert the impending disaster. Little scenario mapping along the trajectory of business as usual would make present times look extremely rosy vis-a-vis the future.

Having come to such a stage, India can ill ignore its economic progress. Only out of such progress can resources for meeting such challenges can be generated.

Urban Freight

The IIT Kanpur study further talks of trucks as amongst the largest contributors to poor air quality and the SC has imposed restrictions on the movement of trucks in Delhi.

To quote from a WB study, a city generates 30 to 50 tons of goods per person per year. How do we propose to handle it? A model was proposed here which would ease movement of freight on trunk routes and over last mile.

Energy Usage: Issue of Diesel

Diesel, which has been the mainstay of Indian economy, suddenly is being cast as a villain in the piece. The slack provided by continued failure to have universal electrification and reliable electricity supply has been picked up by diesel. I think diesel deserves some more respect. India’s most glitzy town, Gurgaon gets 14% of its electricity from diesel generators. Further, there has been a perverse incentive on diesel usage in road vehicles by way of preferred pricing for decades vis-a-vis petrol.

Failure to electrify villages led to use of diesel for irrigation by farmers which needed to be subsidised. Cheaper diesel led to incentive on buying diesel vehicles for personal mobility, despite the fact that diesel vehicles were more expensive to buy and diesel engines need more frequent maintenance inputs. This aspect has always been in the public domain.

A hard course correction is always painful and presents tentativeness to the citizenry. The increased number of diesel vehicles is largely due to the policy which has been in vogue since decades. An integrated economy of a country needs seamless mobility of freight and people. Without addressing issues arising out of unplanned urbanisation while depending on city centric planning (as argued here, here, here and here) we would be lurching from one crisis to another. Let us not forget that pollution is an outcome of discharge of economic functions and unless we acknowledge this organic linkage and causal relationships thereof, we would keep taking decisions which at best would give symptomatic cure only.