Five Key Takeaways From The Exit Polls

The wait is over. The #ExitPolls of the 2024 general elections are out and there is largely consensus that the BJP is coming back to power for the third consecutive time and it is bettering its 2019 tally!

Unless the June 4 results throw up a real surprise, and I am pretty sure they won’t, the exit poll results bust several long-held assumptions about the political landscape of Bharat that some YouTubers and opposition leaders have been trying to best to perpetuate. 

If the exit polls are correct, they will challenge and potentially debunk five popular myths that have shaped public perception and political strategy for years thanks to their careful cultivation in the media. 

Myth 1: The BJP is a ‘North India -centric ‘cow belt’ party which has no appeal in the educated, industrialised South.

For a long time, some political analysts have viewed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as a party with its stronghold primarily in the northern states of India, notably UP and Bihar, the two states that are often derided as ‘cow belt’ by the armchair analysts and journalists who spend most of their time in the climate controlled environment of Lutyens Delhi or in the TV studios of Noida. 

This perception has its roots the BJP’s historical performance in 2014 and 2019 and its ideological emphasis on issues like cultural nationalism resonating strongly with the Hindi-speaking belt.

However, the 2024 exit polls suggest a significant shift. The BJP is seen to be increasing its foothold in the southern states like Karnataka, Telangana, and even parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu indicate a broader acceptance of both, its governance model as well as its ideology.

In Karnataka, traditionally a battleground state with a history of oscillating between the BJP and the Congress, the exit polls indicate a clear edge for the BJP with both the prominent demographic groups, the Vokkaligas as well as the Lingayats backing the BJP, suggesting that its message of development and governance coupled with cultural nationalism is resonating well beyond its traditional voter base.

Similarly, in Telangana, where regional parties have historically held sway, the BJP's projected meteoric rise points to a successful strategy of adaptation of local issues and rhetoric and national policy. Even in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, traditionally seen as the two states most antithetical to the philosophy the BJP espouses, exit polls show that the BJP is making a significant headway both in terms of projected seats as well as the vote share.

If the exit polls are right, this expansion into the Southern states of Bharat could fundamentally alter the perception of the BJP as merely a northern-centric entity, showing that its unique plank of good governance coupled with a sense of a united national cultural identity is appealing to the people of Bharat  all over.

If the exit polls are correct, the BJP is well on its way to become the only pan-India centric national party. 

Myth 2: The Southern states somehow think differently and have different priorities and eventually, they want to form a different country.

The notion that southern states have fundamentally different priorities from the rest of India, to the extent of wanting to form a separate country, is another myth that the exit polls challenge.

This myth has been fueled by the perceived linguistic, economic and historical differences between the Northern and the Southern states that are often highlighted more than the shared heritage, cultural values, aspirations of the common citizens and challenges faced by the people.

However, the exit polls suggest that when it comes to crucial issues like development, economic growth, and national security, there is a significant alignment between the South and the rest of the country. The exit polls also suggest that the vision that the BJP espouses of a strong and united Bharat  bound together by a common cultural heritage and hopes for a bright future finds resonance in the North and South alike! 

The projected convergence of voting patterns in states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh with the national trends indicates that the electorate in these regions not only prioritises stability, development, and effective governance like the rest of Bharat, the people of the region also endorse the vision of Bharat as one land, culturally united. 

The myth of a divergent South is further dispelled by the substantial support for a national party like the BJP espousing the ideal of cultural unity showing that regional identities, while important, do not necessarily translate into a desire for separation. This alignment underscores a robust, cohesive national identity that transcends regional differences.

Myth 3: Rahul Gandhi is a leader with great political acumen and his #BharatJodo Yatras were a great success.

This is a carefully manufactured myth that is pushed in the electoral market like clockwork every five years by some usual suspects only to be debunked by voters with the same regularity.  Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra and its sequel, the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra were widely touted as significant political manoeuvres aimed at reinvigorating the Congress party across Bharat and reestablishing Gandhi's leadership credentials in the Congress party.

The Yatra, a mass mobilization campaign that involved Gandhi walking the length and breadth of Bharat with a vast entourage sought to connect with grassroots voters and inject a message of rejuvenation within the Congress party. There were reports in the media of the Yatras being wildly successful in giving an image makeover to Rahul Gandhi of being a serious political leader and not just a dilettante.

The underwhelming performance of the Congress in critical states like UP, MP, even Rajasthan and the two states where it is in power, Karnataka and Telangana, as suggested by the exit polls, calls into question the effectiveness of Gandhi's leadership and the overall impact of the Bharat Jodo Yatra.

It appears that while the Yatra may have succeeded in energizing party cadres and creating a temporary buzz, it did not sufficiently address the deeper issues of organizational weakness, policy paralysis and strategic incoherence that plague the Congress party.

This outcome challenges the narrative of Gandhi as a transformative leader and suggests that the party needs to undergo more substantive reforms to regain its political footing if it has to survive. Once perceived as the only pan-India national party, exit poll figures suggest that the Congress is now struggling for its survival in almost all parts of Bharat! 

Myth 4: Mamata Banerjee has no viable alternative in West Bengal

Mamata Banerjee is the formidable leader of the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), a regional party that has long been viewed as the unchallenged political force in West Bengal. Her stronghold over the state has been marked by two significant consecutive electoral victories and a strong personal following.

However, the 2024 exit polls indicate a potential shift in this dynamic, with the BJP making significant inroads into what was considered TMC's impregnable fortress.

The emergence of the BJP as a viable alternative in West Bengal suggests a growing appetite for change among the electorate. Factors such as anti-incumbency, governance issues, increasing anger among women voters over the #Sandeshkhali issue, Mamata’s aggressive minority appeasement and the BJP's relentless campaigning seem to have resonated with voters, challenging the perception that Banerjee is invincible.

If the exit polls are accurate, they signal a significant shift in the electoral fortunes of the BJP that could translate to a more competitive political landscape in West Bengal at state levels as well, where the electorate is open to exploring alternatives, thereby ending the myth of Mamata Banerjee's unassailable dominance.

Myth 5: Opposition parties coming together can easily pose a challenge to Narendra Modi led BJP

The notion that a united opposition can effortlessly defeat Narendra Modi and the BJP has been a persistent theme in Indian politics pushed in some sections of the media.

This belief stems from the idea that the BJP's dominance is primarily due to a fragmented opposition, and that unity among opposition parties would consolidate votes against the ruling party. However, the 2024 exit polls suggest that even a concerted effort by the opposition may not be sufficient to unseat Modi.

The exit polls indicate that the BJP, under Modi's leadership, continues to not retain a significant share of the electorate, driven by factors such as strong leadership, economic reforms, and nationalistic policies, it is, in fact, increasing its vote share, now penetrating into areas that haven’t been its traditional strong holds.

The fragmented and often ideologically disparate nature of the opposition alliances appears to have limited their effectiveness. Voters perceive the I.N.D.I.A alliance as a rag-tag coalition of convenience hastily cobbled together for the benefit of the political parties involved and not as a viable alternative for the voters. The lack of a cohesive and compelling alternative vision to counter Modi's strong, unified narrative further weakens the opposition's position.

This outcome underscores the complexity of Indian electoral politics and the challenge of overcoming Modi's political acumen, his nationwide personal popularity and the BJP's formidable organizational strength as a political party. 

Conclusion

The exit polls of the 2024 election, if accurate, suggest a significant reconfiguration of the Indian political landscape.

They debunk several long-held myths, revealing a more nuanced and dynamic reality. The BJP's expansion into the South, the alignment of southern states with national priorities, the questioning of Rahul Gandhi's leadership effectiveness, the emergence of viable alternatives in West Bengal and Odisha and the resilience of Narendra Modi who towers as a colossus against a united opposition all point to a rapidly evolving political scenario.

These developments highlight the importance of adaptability, strategic vision, and organizational strength in contemporary Indian politics, signaling a future where old assumptions are constantly challenged and redefined.

The greatest underlying message of the Exit Polls however is that it underlines the cultural unity of Bharat and the belief of the electorate that they have faith in Narendra Modi’s vision of a strong, united Bharat that is a key player on world stage.