Context

Why Rahul Gandhi May Lose From Wayanad In 2024

Swarajya StaffApr 28, 2022, 02:59 PM | Updated 05:21 PM IST
Rahul Gandhi. (Qamar Sibtain/India Today Group/Getty Images)

Rahul Gandhi. (Qamar Sibtain/India Today Group/Getty Images)


Senior Marxist leader in Kerala, EP Jayarajan recently invited the Muslim League, and a former ally, the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP), to join the Left’s fold. This has implications for Rahul Gandhi

The context: In 2019, Rahul Gandhi won the Lok Sabha election from Wayanad in Kerala to become a Member of Parliament.

  • Gandhi’s margin of victory, more than 4 lakh votes, was the highest in Kerala.

  • This was largely due to the fact that the Congress had allied with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), a party commanding decisive support in the Wayanad parliamentary constituency.

  • The Congress-led coalition in Kerala, the United Democratic Front (UDF) also included the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) among others.

  • The long term impact. The Muslim League’s response for the time being has been to politely decline the offer. But there are reasons for the Congress to worry.

    • There appears to be a growing realisation in the IUML that as an ally of the Congress, their chances of being part of a government are dwindling year upon year.

  • This is because the Congress lost the bulk of its traditional Nair vote base to the BJP, as a result of which, the winnability of the Congress’s Hindu candidates has decreased in Kerala.

  • Also, the League and Communists are old pals. Even in recent times, Islamist-Leftists bonhomie was seen in events like:


  • Shaheen Bagh,

  • Delhi riots of 2020,

  • Karnataka hijab row

  • The consequences are interesting. If the Congress-led coalition disintegrates in Kerala, that would ironically make the BJP the state’s de facto opposition.

    • The offer from the LDF to the Muslim League still stands.

  • After the refusal by the League, Communist leader Jayarajan, who made the offer, publicly rescinded his offer.

  • However, he backtracked on his backtracking in an interview with a Kerala channel.

  • Bottomline: Last time Rahul Gandhi went looking for a safe seat because he perhaps sensed defeat in Amethi. Time to look for another safe seat apart from Wayanad?

    You can read an in-depth analysis of the situation here.

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