Should India Start Worrying About Another Scanty Monsoon?

It seems the rain gods are still not ready to shower their blessings on Indian farmers. The state weather forecaster, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has mapped the cumulative rainfall between 1 to 15 June 2016 (the first two weeks of the monsoon period).

The picture is covered in too much red for one’s taste.

The areas coloured in red are the ones facing deficient rainfall. The areas shown in green are getting normal monsoon rains and the few areas down South covered in blue are getting excess rainfall. Yellow colour shows the areas that are receiving scanty rainfall.

Here’s how different parts in the country are faring:

Areas receiving deficient rainfall: Jammu & Kashmir, West Rajasthan, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, all northeastern states, Chattisgarh, Vidarbha, central Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa, Orissa, Lakshadweep, Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Areas receiving scanty rainfall: West and east Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and western Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Areas receiving normal rains: Haryana, Punjab, Uttrakhand, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and coastal Karnataka, Marathawada.

Areas receiving excess rains: Northern and southern Karnataka, Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh.

As one can see, most of the states are coloured in red or yellow. Both IMD, the state weather forecaster and Skymet, a private forecaster had predicted above average monsoon rains this year. But the trend so far flies in the face of conventional wisdom. IMD has even advised Maharashtra farmers to go slow on sowing.

The rain gods need to smile quickly for the trend to improve in the coming days. Otherwise the uptick seen in inflation coupled with a bad monsoon can prove to be fatal for the economy. This is especially so for rural areas which are already reeling under stress.

Meanwhile, the governments, both at the centre and in states, have their work cut out.