What Worked For Modi In Last Two Terms Won't Work Now: He Has To Reboot Strategy And Do Better Politics

It is a no-brainer that India’s challenges — economic, social, political, and geopolitical — have multiplied significantly over the last few years and months.

First, of course, is the vulnerability of the Narendra Modi government to political pressures in a coalition government. With two global wars raging vigorously, the global economic threats will also loom large even as internal growth will slow down.

Regionally, the China-Pakistan axis is already problematic, but to this we must add an unstable eastern front, thanks to the Myanmar government losing control of areas near the Indian border, and, more recently, the fall of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh and its replacement by a hardcore Islamist regime. 

These changes on the eastern front will pose even greater threats to India’s security than the Pakistan-China axis, since the US Deep State is also fishing in troubled waters.

Internally, the state of Hindu-Muslim relations seems destined to worsen, as the latter community seems emboldened by the opposition’s improved performance in the last Lok Sabha elections and is turning more aggressive with its demands.

If the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) fails to do well in Haryana, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and J&K, the Modi government will become even more politically vulnerable than it is now.

Many old Modi mantras need re-examination.

Contrary to Modi’s suggestion two years ago that “this is not the era of war”, reality seems to be suggesting the exact opposite. This is becoming another era of endless wars which could still spiral out of control into multi-state, multi-front wars in many parts of the world that could also engulf India.

India must be prepared both for external strife and internal threats to its security, not to speak of an economic downturns and insecurities.

Given this reality, the Prime Minister has to re-examine his basic approach adopted since 2014. He cannot assume that he can focus on governance and do politics only around election time.

He has to do better politics most of the time, adopt better tactics, and evolve a better strategy to protect both India’s interests and his own party’s. Instead, he is allowing the Rahul Gandhis and Arvind Kejriwals to set the narrative. He must seize the initiative and not behave like a deer caught in the headlights.

The things he must change are the following.

#1: He has to seize the initiative to change current narratives. What does this mean? It means he must launch new political initiatives to either neuter the opposition or bring them into alignment with the nation’s objectives.

Two ideas could be to set up a new commission to suggest more devolution of financial power to the states and urban local bodies, and another on history, truth and reconciliation to reduce Hindu-Muslim tensions. This should be accompanied by a HIndu-Muslim-Christian dialogue that should end in compromises that all communities can accept.

The assumption that only the majority community must make sacrifices to preserve India’s pluralism is not going to work. There must be give and take, no one-sided sacrifices by the Hindu community to maintain communal amity.

Apart from the Waqf Board amendments, Modi must propose a modification in articles 25-30 of the Constitution to make it explicit that the rights given to minorities must apply equally to Hindus.

#2: Sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishwas and sabka prayas is a pipe dream. Modi can keep talking about this, but his actions must work in the opposition direction to create a coalition of the willing in Indian politics. His slogan for the BJP — as opposed to the government — should be Jo hamare saath, hum uske saath. We will be friends of those who are with us. This is what Dharmo Rakshati Rakshitah means.

Instead we must negotiate with them on the basis of give and take. (Example, we will give you more slaughter house licences if you accept a nation-wide cow slaughter ban. Etc, etc.) 

On the other hand, why not woo jatis that are willing to be wooed? While no government scheme can discriminate against any section of the citizenry in any of its schemes, the new schemes should be tailored to address the needs and requirements of those communities that are willing to be wooed.

A caste census and higher reservations in government jobs would be part of this strategy, but this short-term approach must be augmented by longer-term schemes aimed at improving skills among the backward Hindu jatis and tribals — all of them.

The non-quota castes must be helped by giving them subsidies to acquire even higher skills that are needed in private sector jobs. This is not the age of sabka saath. It is the age where identities matter to social groups, and the BJP will be wiped out if it is not a Hindu party seeking to build a broad coalition of Hindu groups in order retain power and defend the collective Hindu identity of all jatis. 

#3: This is the age of war, and war preparedness. India has to push for faster and quicker atmanirbharta in critical armaments and equipment, since America could turn out to be an unreliable partner in defence supplies.

Already, the US is dragging its feet on delivering engines for the Tejas aircraft and the supply of the Apache attack helicopters. While it is not clear if these delays are the result of the US trying to pressure us on political issues or because its own supplies are thinning down due to the need to supply Ukraine and Israel with more equipment, one thing is clear. We can’t rely on anyone else for critical defence supplies.

We must restart our own fighter aircraft engine development programme. We must ensure that we have access to tactical nuclear weapons and abandon the no-first-use policy on N-weapons in respect to China if it attacks us at a vulnerable moment. We need huge investments in drones, AI technology, cyber and information warfare capabilities, for this is the age of not just war, but hybrid war. 

India’s eastern front is hugely vulnerable at several points, including the Chicken’s Neck region, which could face threats from both China and Bangladesh in a geography rendered adverse by the rapid growth of the minority population there.

So what can India do? There are more questions than answers, but we must address them. Should India demand safe, self-governing zones for Hindus in Bangladesh, and/or support arming those minorities for self-defence? Should India bolster its naval capabilities in the Bay of Bengal so that if Bangladesh makes any move to block the Chicken’s Neck, it would face a naval blockade at all its ports?

How will India defend Assam, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Manipur, Tripura, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram from Chinese threats and insurgencies? India must seek several levers to keep Bangladesh-based Islamist threats in check even while seeking air and land supply routes for our armed forces guarding the porous north-eastern borders. 

#4: India cannot remain a tech coolie forever, depending on labour arbitrage alone to make money from the export of software services. We must develop our own patented technologies and not depend on Google, Meta, Wikipedia, OpenAI or X too much.

We must have our own social media platforms, subject to Indian laws, and our own data centres, our own Indiawiki and information portals so that Indians do not need to depend on tainted sources of information.

This is where Rahul Gandhi’s anti-Adani-Ambani rhetoric is doing damage. In the age of 'Big Tech', it is conglomerates like these and also the Birlas and Tatas and Infosys that must provide the capital and infrastructure to develop our own platforms and intellectual property rights for our own needs.

Schemes to encourage Indian startups and big businesses to collaborate to create these platforms, and our own artificial intelligence programmes using large language models (LLMs) based on Indian languages.

It is a big worry that Google has built big LLMs based on Indian languages, including translation engines, ahead of us. We also need large investments in drug research, with the Covid-based vaccine funding model providing a roadmap for government-industry collaboration.

The Narendra Modi government must wake up to the new realities and learn to play good politics in order to consolidate its power in a coalition era where the internal and external threats are rising.