Maharashtra Seat Sharing: Why Even A Split Has Not Dampened The Senas' Demands

It has been more than a week since the first list of candidates for the upcoming Lok Sabha 2024 polls was announced by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Followed by this, the main opposition party- Indian National Congress (INC) too released their first list of candidates a few days back.

What is common in these lists is the fact that both parties are yet to declare their candidates for the Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra.

Demand of a double digit figure in terms of seats by both Shiv Senas on the either sides is said to have been the major reason behind delay in finalising seat sharing in both coalitions.

Since Maharashtra comprises 48 Lok Sabha constituencies- the second largest number of seats state wise- both, BJP and INC are not in a mood to take risk and spare equal numbers to their respective Sena allies.

Notably, there has been no decline in the vigour and aggression of both the Senas. This is despite the major split in the regional saffron party that was engineered by a faction led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde in 2022.

Shiv Sena demanding a larger or equal share has been a recurrent theme in every seat sharing meets for all kinds of elections. Hence, it becomes pertinent to understand the basis on which a regional party like Sena then and the two Senas now, muster confidence to demand a large number of seats to its coalition leaders.

The ‘Motha Bhau’ Narrative

“We are the big brother in Maharashtra, we were the big brother and will stay the big brother,” said Shiv Sena leader Sanjay Raut back in January 2019 when the party was asking for a larger share in the Lok Sabha seat sharing talks with the BJP.

Experts point out that although the Sena is now split into two rival parties- Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray), their belief of being the dominant force in the state polity remains. This is also the reason why both Senas are reluctant to settle for any less than 20 seats for Lok Sabha.

Uday Tanpathak, associate editor of the Marathi daily Pudhari is of the opinion that while the claim that Shiv Sena pre-dates BJP is true, the claim that it enabled BJP to grow in the state however is factually incorrect.

“Both — Shiv Sena and BJP — have grown on their individual merit. While Shiv Sena’s hardline Hindutva appealed to a certain section of the electorate, BJP with its RSS roots and its image as a mainstream party too had many supporters right from the start,” he said.

An octogenarian Shiv Sainik from Girgaon who has closely followed the party's rise and who did not wish to be named concurs with Tanpathak’s observation.

“It is incorrect to claim that BJP grew in the state because of Sena. The first Member of Legislative Assembly (MLA) from Shiv Sena was Wamanrao Mahadik who wrested Parel seat from Communists in 1969 by-polls. Come 1972, we couldn’t even retain that seat while the only MLA we were able to elect was Pramod Navalkar from Girgaon,” he said.

“Same is the case in terms of Sena’s representation in the Lok Sabha. We had no representation there until 1989. In the 1989 polls, Sena was able to elect four Members of Parliament (MPs) for the first time because we had an alliance with the BJP,” he said.

The two saffron parties — Shiv Sena and BJP — joined hands for the first time in the run-up to 1989 Lok Sabha elections. This was after the Vile Parle assembly by-polls in 1987 that saw Shiv Sena candidate Ramesh Prabhu emerging victorious against the BJP and Indian National Congress candidates. The Sena and the BJP subsequently joined hands in order to avoid division of the 'Hindu' vote-bank.

It is important to note here that despite having had double digit representation in the state assembly right since its inception in 1980, BJP can be visibly said to have shown magnanimity by agreeing to cede a larger share of the seats to Shiv Sena when both parties came together for the first time in 1990. Prior to this, the lone Sena MLA in the assembly after 1985 elections was Chhagan Bhujbal, who later in 1991 defected to Congress with 16 MLAs from the Sena.

Shiv Sena’s Pockets Across Maharashtra

The political sphere of influence of both the Shiv Sena and Uddhav Sena mainly includes the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and parts of Konkan.

In the MMR region particularly, prior to the split, Shiv Sena for more than two decades has been in control of the cash-rich Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai (MCGM) along with the Municipal Corporations of Thane and Kalyan-Dombivali.

This apart, the regional saffron party also controlled the municipal councils of Ambernath, Kulgaon-Badlapur, Karjat and Uran.

Considering this, Shiv Sena has been viewed and at times ridiculed as a ‘sub-regional’ party. This is similar to the mockery of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) as a party largely limited to three and half districts in the western Maharashtra.

However, while looking for its presence in the other parts of the state, it turns out that Shiv Sena is influential in few pockets that are spread across all regions of the state.

Particularly outside its MMR-Konkan citadel, the party has historically had a strong presence in Jalgaon in Khandesh; Chatrapati Sambhaji Nagar, Jalna, Parbhani, Hingoli, Nanded in Marathwada; Kolhapur in Western Maharashtra along with Washim and Amravati in Vidarbha.

A Wide Social Base

Interestingly, all of these districts mentioned above have significant Scheduled Caste and Muslim populations in varying proportions.

For instance, the Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (CS Nagar, previously Aurangabad) Lok Sabha seat comprises 21 per cent Muslim and 8 per cent neo-Buddhist (Scheduled Castes) population. This is even more pronounced in the CS Nagar city wherein Muslims count for 31 per cent and neo-Buddhists count for 15 per cent of the total population.

Despite this, the party candidates have consistently managed to win from the CS Nagar Lok Sabha seat from 1989 only to lose it in 2019 when the incumbent Shiv Sena MP Chandrakant Khaire lost to former NDTV reporter and All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) candidate Imtiyaz Jaleel.

However, in the subsequent 2019 state assembly polls, out of the six assembly seats that make up the CS Nagar Lok Sabha Constituency, four were wrested by the Shiv Sena. This apart, the party has also been in control of the city’s municipal corporation for more than two decades.

Notably, in 2022 when the party became a house divided after Eknath Shinde led a coup against its then chief Uddhav Thackeray, out of the 35 MLAs who rallied behind Shinde, eight were from Marathwada, region-wise the largest share, and which is far away from Sena strong-hold of MMR-Konkan.

According to experts, it is the relatively strong presence of the Muslims and Scheduled Castes in these constituencies of Marathwada that has prevented the splitting of the remaining Hindu votes that usually get divided along the caste lines.

For instance, senior journalist Nishikant Bhalerao in a recent interview pointed out that Shiv Sena prospered in CS Nagar and other parts of Marathwada owing to the party’s hardline unabashed Hindutva stance against the fundamentalist tendencies among a section of the Muslims.

According to Bhalerao, this supposed display of Hindu might is said to have appealed to lay Hindu masses in CS Nagar.

Tanpathak in context of Sena’s presence in Marathwada said, “Apart from exploiting the fear of Muslim domination among Hindus, Sena’s stance against the Namantar Andolan too helped it consolidate its presence in this part of the state.”

The Namantar Andolan that lasted from 1977 to 1994 took place in Marathwada. It demanded that the Marathwada University be renamed after Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar.

While the Dalit student organisations supported by communist and socialist youth outfits led the protests, their demands were met with stiff resistance from the dominant Maratha caste leaders and other forward castes. This resulted in the riots of 1978 that saw several Dalits being killed, attacked, or displaced.

As per reports, Shiv Sena is said to have sided with the numerically dominant and politically influential Marathas of the region over this issue. The party chief is also reported to have said, “When there is not enough peeth (flour) in their (agitators) homes and I wonder why are they asking for a vidyapeeth (university).”

Apart from Marathwada, districts such as Jalgaon in Khandesh along with Washim and Amravati in Vidarbha, where Sena found many takers, Other Backward Class (OBC) groups along with nomadic and Scheduled Tribes are equally influential as are the Marathas.

According to experts, Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray shrewdly chose to focus on such highly-polarised areas considering that his charisma would work exceedingly well in constituencies that were socially ‘mixed’ in nature.

The cadre base of Shiv Sena in MMR and Konkan too is diverse with its rank and file comprising leaders and volunteers from forward sections of society such as Brahmins, Kayasthas, Marathas along with a large number of Agri, Koli, SC and tribal communities. Also, not to forget its aggressive mahila aghadis (women front) comprising women of all age groups that lead many protests from the front.

Notably, this time, a large number of Muslim votes too seem to be in favour of the the Uddhav Sena.

This can be discerned from the increasing association of minority leaders with the Thackeray family. It became evident more so after intellectuals from the left-wing progressive Muslim Satyashodhak Mandal started writing articles in Marathi dailies describing how Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena is secular and different from that under his father.

Some academicians, by selectively ignoring the party's historic stance against the Namantar Andolan and caste-based reservations, have even gone to the length of calling the party’s version of Hindutva being a ‘Subaltern’ one and thus more acceptable compared to that of BJP’s allegedly 'Brahminical Hindutva'.

Notwithstanding all of this, it cannot be discounted that Shiv Sena hasn’t been a reliable partner in the past. As per experts, BJP also seems to have underestimated its present partner Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena. This became evident more so when a video clip claiming Shinde's cordial relations with Maratha agitator Manoj Jarange who has consistently criticised BJP, went viral.

State BJP leaders in the past have pointed out several instances of Sena cadre having gone to the aid of opposition parties against BJP.

Considering this and the fact that the BJP had performed well when it fought independently in the 2014 assembly elections and in the subsequent BMC polls, its cadre now are largely of the opinion that the party must convince Shinde’s Shiv Sena to not ask for more and largely fight it out by itself in all elections ahead.