El Nino Casts Shadow: India Anticipates Driest Monsoon Season In Eight Years

India is expected to experience its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, as the El Niño weather pattern is predicted to reduce September precipitation.

August is also on track to be the driest month in over a century, according to two officials from the weather department, as reported by Reuters.

The deficit in summer rainfall could lead to higher prices for essential commodities such as sugar, pulses, rice, and vegetables.

This, in turn, may contribute to an overall increase in food inflation, which reached its highest level since January 2020 in July.

The monsoon is crucial for India's $3 trillion economy as it provides around 70% of the country's required rainfall for irrigation and replenishing reservoirs and aquifers.

Unfortunately, almost half of the farmland in India lacks proper irrigation facilities.

According to an unidentified senior official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the El Niño phenomenon has resulted in reduced rainfall in August and is expected to negatively impact rainfall in September as well.

India is likely to experience an 8% rainfall deficit by the end of the June-September monsoon season, which would be the largest deficit since 2015. During that year, El Niño also caused a reduction in precipitation.

Overall, the monsoon's reduced rainfall this year will have significant implications for India's agricultural sector and water resources.

The requests for comment made to the weather department have not been responded to yet.

In their previous full-season forecast on 26 May, the IMD had predicted a 4% deficit in rainfall for the season, assuming that the El Niño weather pattern would have limited impact.

El Niño refers to the warming of Pacific waters, which often leads to decreased rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.

According to weather department officials, India is currently experiencing its driest August in over a century.

The monsoon season this year has been inconsistent, with June rains falling 9% below average but July rains making up for it by exceeding the average by 13 per cent.

As per the IMD official, the southwest monsoon is expected to withdraw from northwestern India either on time or slightly earlier than the usual date of 17 September.

In the past four years, September has seen above-average rainfall due to the delayed withdrawal of the monsoon, as mentioned by the official.

According to a second official, there is a possibility of below-normal rainfall in northern and eastern states in September.

However, there is hope for a revival in rainfall in the southern peninsula.