Experts Predict Sluggish Monsoon Ascent Up Western Coast Due To Cyclone Biparjoy

The Arabian Sea's Cyclone Biparjoy has become a 'very severe cyclone' and is currently situated around 850 km west of Goa.

Forecasted to head northwards and eventually turn towards Oman, the cyclone's approach will likely aid in the onset of monsoon into Kerala within the next 48 hours. However, it could potentially result in a slow ascent up the Western coast as noted by various experts.

According to D Sivananda Pai of the India Meteorological Department, the cyclone system has separated from the monsoon system, bringing adequate rainfall and favorable winds to Kerala. However, it is still unknown whether the cyclone's separation will have any impact on the monsoon's future movement, which requires a few more days of observation.

Several scientists predict that the Biparjoy will reduce monsoon moisture due to various factors combining.

According to Roxy Mathew Koll, a Climate Scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune, several environmental factors are contributing to the formation of a cyclone in the Arabian Sea.

These include an abnormally warm Arabian Sea, weak monsoon onset, and favourable Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) conditions in the Indian Ocean. Due to these conditions, the cyclone is developing differently than a typical monsoon onset.

The monsoon, which typically reaches Goa by June 5th and Mumbai by June 10th, is also experiencing a delay this year due to the unusual weather patterns.

G P Sharma, the President of Skymet Weather, a private weather analytics company, stated that there is a possibility that the monsoon might arrive on 8-9 June, but it won't be robust.

The location of the anticipated cyclonic storm is likely to impede the progress of the monsoon and its strengthening, making it detrimental.