IMD's Optimistic Outlook: Southwest Monsoon Season Likely To Bring Above-Normal Rainfall

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted above-normal rainfall for the 2024 southwest monsoon season (June to September) over the country as a whole.

The seasonal rainfall is likely to be 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of ± 5 per cent. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

Currently, moderate El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region, but the latest forecasts indicate a weakening of El Nino to neutral conditions in the early part of the monsoon season, followed by the development of La Nina conditions during the second half.

Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently prevailing over the Indian Ocean, but positive IOD conditions are likely to develop later in the season.

The spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts indicates that above-normal seasonal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas over northwest, east, and northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is expected. The model has no clear signal for certain areas of the country.

The IMD will issue updated forecasts for the monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May 2024.

The forecast is based on a combination of dynamical and statistical models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, which uses coupled global climate models from various global climate prediction centres.