Swarajya Podcast: Maratha Agitators Call Off Protest, But Is All Well Within Ruling Alliance?

On Saturday (27 January) morning, Eknath-led Maharashtra government accepted the Maratha quota demands of Manoj J Patil and Maratha protesters, following which dissatisfaction and disagreements started brewing up within the ruling alliance in the state itself.

A gazette notification issued later by the state government simplified and broadened the process of granting Kunbi OBC certification to eligible members of the Maratha community, enabling them to avail government jobs and educational opportunities.

While the Supreme Court-mandated cap of 50 per cent reservation is not being touched by this decision, many OBC groups have expressed their concern over a larger number of people now being accommodated into the 27 per cent quota for OBCs.

In episode 39 of What This Means, a Swarajya podcast where we explain the meaning of news developments and their effects, Diksha Yadav and guest-speaker Varun Singh discussed this issue and its impact on Maharashtra politics.

Below is an edited transcript of their conversation. (To listen on the App click here, for Spotify click here)

Diksha: It was the sixth episode of What This Means when we spoke about the Maratha reservation protests that were going on, around three months back. And you did mention that there would be some backlash if Maratha community's reservation demands are accepted, which we are starting to see now.

Varun: The Maratha reservation issue, I would say that the last incident that happened in Navi Mumbai, close to Mumbai, was handled pretty well. A lot of people were expecting that if the Maratha protesters come inside the city, there would be chaos. But it was handled pretty well.

We got our freedom in the midnight, even the Maratha reservation thing was done in the midnight, where the protesters or Patil was given the GR (government resolution), stating that they will be able to take all the benefits that are under the OBC (other backward caste), ie the benefits that they get by reservation.

There has been a sort of, I wouldn't say backlash, but discomfort amongst many ministers, including a Maratha Minister Narayan Rane. And we also have another minister from the OBC community, Chhagan Bhujbal, who is from the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) Ajit Pawar faction.

OBC forms a huge vote bank, not just in Maharashtra, but in every place of the country. If you go and see, every state has OBCs who form a major vote bank and no one wants to lose on them.

We have a CM who himself comes from the Maratha community, Eknath Shinde. And another deputy CM, Ajit Pawar, he is also from the Maratha community. So, it was expected that the Marathas wouldn't be left hanging like they were earlier.

And also, I always reiterate that it was a Brahmin CM, Devendra Fadnavis, who gave the reservation. They (state Opposition) never gave any reservation to the Marathas. And then this issue wasn't handled pretty well by Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) because of the curative petition.

The curative petition had been filed in the Supreme Court (SC) and during the hearing, the MVA couldn't represent it well in the SC. And that is the reason the Maratha reservation was struck down.

But talking about what chaos it has created, I wouldn't say it has created yet any chaos, but it may. Because everyone is very sensitive when it comes to caste. Everyone is very sensitive when it comes to reservation. However, CM Eknath Shinde has said that no one/community will be impacted with this decision.

The OBCs who enjoy the reservation benefits, they wouldn't be impacted. But in a way, some people are trying to say that it may impact the OBCs who already are under reservation because now Kunbis are being added to it. Now, there is no 'disciplined' clarification.

And what I mean by disciplined clarification is if the government doesn't come out very openly about what exactly and how OBCs wouldn't be impacted, there are many politicians sitting over here just to pounce upon it because it will be beneficial for them in the elections.

So yes, I do expect some problems might come up, but I'm sure the government, especially Fadnavis and Shinde will be able to handle it.

Diksha: The two opposing statements that have been gaining the media limelight also, Varun, is one from Union Minister Narayan Rane and the other from senior leader and Minister Chhagan Bhujbal. Rane went on to say that it will cause unrest in Maharashtra, while Bhujbal is planning to organise protests where he is calling OBCs, SCs and STs to join in on 1 February.

So two things, Varun. First, what could be the reasons that they're taking a different stand on the issue from the alliance? And second, will this step help them to appeal to their voters or bear any effect on the elections? What do they gain from this?

Varun: Absolutely. You know, it does. As I said, it was Gopinath Munde who was considered as the biggest OBC leader in Maharashtra. If I'm not wrong, there was a time when earlier, I think when Munde ji was alive, even at that point of time, Bhujbal, and all these people belonging to the OBC, had come together for certain issues related to the community.

I don't think Rane is so dependent on Maratha votes only, but he comes from that community. And obviously, as he was an ex-chief minister, he sees himself as a state leader, as a leader who has larger vote appeal.

Rane being the ex-chief minister, knows that what the government has promised is an ad-hoc thing. Probably till the time the Supreme Court doesn't hear it, till then, this thing will be in force. So, it is not a permanent solution.

Till the time curative petition at the Supreme Court isn't heard, nothing can be permanent in terms of the reservation. So Rane probably is hinting towards that.

But there is one small thing which I disagree with what Rane said about the unrest. What he means by unrest, it could be an emotional unrest. I don't see a physical unrest. Because the Marathas right now have gone back happily to their respective hometowns.

And the other reason that Bhujbal is calling all the communities together against this decision of accepting the Maratha quota demands could probably also be that the state doesn't have a stronger OBC face right now, and Bhujbal would like to create himself or would want himself to be seen as the biggest OBC leader.

And this is one of the best opportunities that he probably has. And knowing how politicians work and knowing what politicians want, obviously he wouldn't let this opportunity go.

It will benefit the alliance, I would say, because in areas where Marathas are strong, the Shinde-Sena can put their candidate and in places where OBCs are strong, the NCP-Ajit Pawar faction can put their candidates.

In Uttar Pradesh, we have a famous saying, that vote is to be given in one's caste (vote apne jaat mein dena hai). That same thing is followed, I think, everywhere. In Maharashtra also, it is followed, in rural Maharashtra especially.

I think the opposition sees it as a rift within the ruling alliance, but I see it as a very, very strategic political move where all the three parties will benefit because they are catering to specific vote banks and those vote banks will stick with them.

Diksha: The BJP and Shiv Sena took their time to calm the chaos regarding this issue. But still, do you think they will be able to resolve this rift between the parties before the 2024 elections because only few weeks are left?

Varun: The general election, I don't think it will matter much because, you know, as I said earlier also, in general election right now, more than caste, what is working in Maharashtra, what is working across the majority parts of the country, except for certain areas in South, is the Modi wave.

In Lok Sabha, the candidate will not be the person, the candidate will be the Prime Minister face, Prime Minister Narendra Modi. So, whosoever is part of the alliance, they are going to get good votes.

I know there are many 'surveys' which keep responding to me on several occasions, stating that the MVA, especially the Congress and the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray is going to gain majority of seats in Maharashtra. But being on ground, going across the state and meeting people, I have realised one simple thing and that is that people of Maharashtra are in love with Narendra Modi.

And in the last one month, in January itself, he had made two visits and both were for very important events. May it be the Atal Setu or may it be handing over 15,024 homes to those people in Solapur.

The majority of the time, we do not even count them in the list, can you believe someone has given homes to the rat pickers, someone has given home to the unorganised sector workers. Kamgars have got houses, garment textile workers have got houses in Solapur under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana.

It's rare in India that the person who inaugurated the project in 2019 came in January 2024 to give the houses. So, Modi is very popular. In general elections, I don't think of these aspects that we are talking right now will matter, because the elections will be fought on Prime Minister Modi's face. It wouldn't be fought on merely Eknath Shinde's face or Narayan Rane or Chhagan Bhujbal.

So, what I mentioned about the caste helping these parties, I think for further clarity, I would like to say that I meant it in the assembly elections.

Diksha: The Opposition parties in the state have actually supported the Maratha movement from quite some time now. So, do you think they are in a position to flip their stand and try to consolidate the other communities, the other OBC, SC and ST communities now for the Lok Sabha elections?

Varun: You know, one of the most overused words is ‘masterstroke’ in Indian politics. I would say that is what has happened because the opposition parties weren't expecting that a GR or government resolution of this kind will come out and that too in the midnight of 26 January and something like this will happen.

Everyone was expecting, I think, from the opposition, that the government will not pay heed to the Maratha reservation protestors. And they will falter on their promises and there would be a chaos, there would be unrest in the state on which they can bank upon.

But I'm very happy that there was no chaos or no unrest in the state. The Maratha reservation protestors have gone back to their home safe and sound. No untoward incident happened and this, the opposition wasn't expecting, to be honest.

That is the reason they thought, let's support the Maratha reservation protestors, which even the government — you had many people from the government — who were also supporting the Maratha reservation protestors.

And at the end of the day, the way it ended, I think it was unexpected for most of those people who were expecting it to go in the opposite direction.

With what face do you think Sharath Pawar, who has been supporting Jarange Patil, would go and say, OBCs come unite against Patil or SCs/STs come unite against Maratha reservation? This would be a loss of face for them.

Diksha: Lastly, Varun, we see that when the caste issues or reservation topics are raised in states like, say, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, etc., there's often a narrative that builds up that the BJP is anti-Hindu or pro-upper caste. But that does not seem to be the case with Maharashtra. So, what could be the reason behind that?

Varun: Very surprising. Because in Maharashtra, if you see, the majority of the CMs that the state has had have been from the Maratha community. Except for, I would say, Sushil Kumar Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis. In the recent history, I forgot the other CM name who was from Konkan. Most of them, majority of them have been from the Maratha community.

Devendra Fadnavis is the only, in the recent past, non-Maratha CM to complete his tenure for five years. Apart from that, in the state, Marathas have always been the chief minister or in important positions.

But at the same time, if you see, many leaders from other backward communities may it be Gopinath Munde or Chhagan Bhujbal are/have been in important positions.

Important portfolios have been given to almost all the communities. All the castes are very strong over here. You also have to understand that Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Babasaheb Ambedkar, isn't holding any constitutional position in the state. But even he, as such, is a big leader over here. He holds influence in certain districts. So, almost all leaders have played/are playing a crucial role.

And that is another reason why we don't see so much of uproar against anyone who is seeking reservation. There was not uproar against the Maratha community even in the earlier term of Devendra Fadnavis, when they were holding those silent protests.

Even this time, if you see, no other community was opposing the Maratha reservation of protestors. Instead, they were like, okay, if reservations can be granted, then give them. And that is what makes Maharashtra a bit different from others.

So, we do not see an uproar in terms of caste. Politics does happen. But the common public as such isn't so envious about anyone else getting a benefit. Yeah, they do expect that they should also get the benefit.

Probably that is one reason why till now, in spite of today being the fourth day of the GR coming out, there is no chaos.

Diksha: Very interesting.