Amidst NDA Clean Sweep In Bihar, RJD’s M-Y Combination Goes For A Toss

The results of the Bihar by-poll have surprised many. Though it was expected that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would perform well, a clean sweep was not on the cards.

It was expected that at least Ramgarh and Imamganj would hold the fort for the Indian National Inclusive Developmental (INDI) Alliance.

For Jagada Nand Singh, the current state president of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Ramgarh is a bastion in the grandest sense of the word. He won six consecutive elections from here between 1985 and 2005. Later, his party fellow Ambika Yadav and son Sudhakar Singh also contested and won.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Ashok Kumar Singh's victory was the only aberration in the last 39 years. The seat fell vacant after Sudhakar Singh became a parliamentarian from Buxar in the 2024 general elections (GE).

Considering the fact that Ramgarh is synonymous with the Jagada Nand and family, RJD thought it prudent to field Ajit Kumar Singh, the younger son of its president, from Ramgarh. However, in the final count, he could only muster 35,825 votes and was placed in the third position.

It turns out that Satish Kumar Singh Yadav of the Bahujan Samaj Party came too close to beating BJP candidate Ashok Kumar Singh. Ashok’s victory margin was 1,362, thanks to the momentum gained in the second leg of counting.

The development is likely to trigger a ripple effect within the RJD, as Scheduled Castes and Muslims—key groups within its social justice framework—make up one-third of the population in this unreserved seat.

Yadavs and Rajputs were also anticipated to back the RJD, driven by party loyalty and community allegiance, respectively, with Jagada Nand Singh being a prominent Rajput leader.

RJD will have to go deeper into booth-level data to check which community ditched it. If momentum is anything to go by, then Muslims seem to have not turned up for the party.

A similar story is repeated in the Belaganj assembly constituency. Here, the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of Prashant Kishor seemingly played spoilsport by fielding a Muslim candidate named Mohammad Amjad, who bagged 17,285 votes—majorly believed to be Muslim votes.

Muslims’ discontentment against RJD was apparent from the beginning, which is why the party took an 11th-hour decision to include Sahabuddin’s son Osama for campaigning. To add insult to injury, one of the party’s workers got into a scuffle with a person expressing his differences.

Similar incidents took place during Lalu Yadav’s rally too. These incidents only worsened the optics for the party, which was already under criticism for giving an opportunity to Vishwanath Kumar Singh, son of strongman Surendra Yadav.

Yadav won eight elections from this seat—six of them consecutively between 2000 and 2020. His son was contesting, which is another point of discontent among party cadres due to the nepotism angle.

Vishwanath lost by 21,391 votes, while Amjad’s count is around 80 per cent of this tally. Another Muslim candidate, Mohammad Zamin Ali Hasan, secured 3,533 votes on the AIMIM ticket. Political wisdom suggests that if JSP and AIMIM were not there, these votes would have gone to RJD, as would a few thousand Yadav votes cast for Manorama Devi.

JSP worsening RJD’s prospects was evident in Imamganj as well. The election was necessitated by Jitan Ram Manjhi's decision to become a Parliamentarian from Gaya.

His daughter-in-law Deepa Manjhi was given a ticket by Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAM(S))—a constituent of NDA. RJD fielded Roshan Kumar Manjhi—from the same community. Anti-incumbency against HAM(S) was a major issue here.

Even during the Lok Sabha election, people were not happy with Jitan Ram Manjhi and had voted for the RJD candidate. The same was expected in the assembly election as well, but JSP’s candidate selection changed the equation.

JSP candidate Jitendra Paswan, a respected paediatrician, was believed to have Chirag Paswan's backing, attracting substantial Paswan community support. He secured 37,103 votes—the highest for any JSP candidate in this by-election—a significant share of which likely came from disgruntled RJD voters dissatisfied with their party.

The split in votes significantly benefited HAM(S) candidate Deepa Manjhi, who managed to secure a narrow victory with a margin of 5,945 votes.

However, one seat aligned with expectations. In the Tarari assembly constituency, BJP’s Vishal Prashant emerged victorious with a strong margin of 10,612 votes. He defeated Raju Yadav of the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) (Liberation)(CPI(ML)).

Vishal is the son of Narendra Pandey, alias Sunil Pandey—a strongman and believed to be an anti-Naxal crusader in his younger days. Tarari was earlier known as Piro, and Pandey dominated this seat between 2000 and 2015.

In 2015, Sudama Prasad of CPI(ML) broke this streak, maintaining his dominance until he transitioned to Parliament in 2024 by defeating then-Union Power Minister RK Singh to represent Arrah.

In Bihar, Naxalism often morphed into caste warfare, positioning Narendra Pandey—a Bhumihar representing Tarari—as a marked adversary for the Left. Within their ideological framework, he symbolised an oppressive community.

But Pandey is hailed by many as someone who brought a semblance of order caused by Naxal mayhem. Now his son is taking charge.

A morally credible challenger to Pandey’s dominance could be Lieutenant General Shri Krishna Singh, a distinguished recipient of the Param Vishisht Seva Medal (PVSM), Uttam Yudh Seva Medal (UYSM), and Ati Vishisht Seva Medal (AVSM), who was JSP’s first choice for the seat.

However, it was found that his name was not registered in the local voter list, due to which a social worker, Kiran Singh, was fielded.