As The Yadav Saga Turns Into A Farce, Where Does That Leave BSP And BJP? 

There are some liberal commentators for whom the latest Great White Hope to take on Narendra Modi’s Jack Jones is Akhilesh Yadav. The Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister has just engineered a Palace Coup and replaced his father as the National President of the party in an emergency session convened on 1 January. Mulayam’s cousin Ramgopal Yadav, who is widely regarded as the Chief Draftsperson of the party Constitution and also a loyal bannerman of the younger Yadav, is of the considered opinion that Mulayam’s ouster and Akhilesh’s coronation has taken place in accordance with the party Constitution. On the other hand, Amar Singh shortened his holiday in London and rushed back to the Capital in order to assist Mulayam and Shivpal as they approached the election Commission to ensure that the Akhilesh faction does not get to use the party symbol-a cycle.

The second Act of the Great Samajwadi Family Circus had begun on the 31st when Akhilesh and Ramgopal were expelled from the party by Mulayam Singh Yadav for having called for the emergency session of the party which was eventually held on New Years’ Day. The expulsion was revoked on the same day. However, that did not stop Akhilesh from going ahead with what he had planned for the subsequent day and upstaging his father in a coup.

The big question that we need to answer is whether Akhilesh is popular enough to win an election on his own steam-sans his father and uncle Shivpal. To my mind, the answer is in the negative because Akhilesh still does not have much of a political base of his own. Secondly, even when he was an untested commodity and the entire heft of Shivpal’s formidable electoral machinery was behind him in 2012, he could poll just about 29.4 per cent of the vote. There is no doubt that as on date, he does enjoy goodwill across caste lines. Having said that, he also has to contend with strong anti-incumbency because whatever may be the opinion of individual voters about him as a person, they are by and large in agreement that he has been less than a roaring success as a Chief Minister.

As we have shown earlier-even a two to three per cent swing in Uttar Pradesh vis-a-vis the last election can lead to the erstwhile victor being consigned to the second position. Even assuming that the Rashtriya Lok Dal and the Congress party were to put their combined but still less than considerable heft behind him, it is almost impossible for the Akhilesh faction of the Samajwadi party to do even slightly better than what the united Samajwadis managed in 2012. One also needs to keep in mind the fact that one of the reasons why Akhilesh is regarded highly across communities is because the impression is that he has not abetted the hooliganism practised by anti-social elements in the Yadav community patronised by his father and brother. There can be no denying that Mulayam-even today-is a pretty formidable leader in his own right and that old timers in the Yadav community are unlikely to regard Akhilesh’s action as being motivated by filial piety-something that he has been at pains to emphasize.

The eminently possible Akhilesh-Congress tie up also seems to be bad news for Mayawati’s Elephant. The Muslim voters who have always regarded her with suspicion (apart from looking down at her because of her caste) are unlikely to vote for her especially keeping in mind the fact that the general impression is that she is not averse to a post poll tie up with the BJP. If the Congress party ties up with Akhilesh Yadav, Muslim voters are sure to gravitate towards that combine. Furthermore, there is also an impression that she has been hit significantly be the note ban and is unlikely to be able to mount much of a challenge to the BJP or to Akhilesh. Her core Jatav Dalit and MBC vote, as reiterated earlier, is just not enough to enable her to win an election in the absence of votes from non-core votebanks. Yet, we would write her off at our peril. There is always the possibility that she might end up being able to convince Muslim voters that she is the only one who can give a fight to Modi’s BJP given that there is total chaos in the Samajwadi Party at the moment.

This leaves the BJP. The ruling party seems to be sitting pretty at the moment and even as we put the finishing touches to this piece, the Prime Minister is addressing a humongous rally in Lucknow. However, the Saffron Party needs to guard against complacency and manage the fallout of demonetisation better than it has done so far at the grassroots. Should it fail to do so, there is always a possibility that the grim tolerance of the people towards Mr. Modi’s ‘masterstroke’ might morph into a raging fury in which case the BJP can abandon its dream of occupying the Secretariat at Pancham Tal in Lucknow. The weak and divided Opposition just does not possess the strength to defeat the BJP. The big question is whether the BJP can capitalise upon this historic opportunity?