Assembly Elections 2018: Did NOTA Defeat The BJP?

Victory has hundred fathers, but defeat demands an equal number of scapegoats as well. Yesterday (11 December), the Congress party trounced the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh – three chief citadels of the Hindi heartland.

In Chhattisgarh, the BJP was reduced to only 15 seats in the 90-member house. The party was initially hoping to sail through with a comfortable majority. In Madhya Pradesh, it put up a valiant fight despite being in power for the last 15 years and won 109 seats compared to the Congress’ 114. Similarly, in Rajasthan, where political pundits had predicted a crushing defeat for the incumbent party, the BJP was able to reach a respectable figure of 73 seats compared to Congress’ 99.

Since the BJP supporters were expecting the contest to end on a 2-1 scoreline at worst, a 0-3 on the board has come as a rude awakening.

This has necessitated some answers as well as blame to go around. What emerged as the easiest target were anonymous voters who, in their infinite wisdom, chose to press the None of the Above (NOTA) option. “NOTA defeated the BJP” is the current consensus among the online electoral analysts. But is it true?

Since the BJP’s defeat in Chhattisgarh was decisive, we will skip this state and focus only on Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, where the contests were tight.

In Rajasthan, the BJP’s vote share stood at 38.8 per cent, only 0.5 percentage points lower than the Congress’. Here, NOTA’s vote share was 1.3 per cent. If we add this to the BJP’s kitty in toto, the BJP gets ahead of the Congress by 0.8 per cent. This appears significant, but the devil is in the details. There were 18 seats in Rajasthan where the margin of loss was less than 3,000 votes. Of these, the BJP lost eight and won 10. Of the 8 seats lost, NOTA votes were more than the margin of the BJP’s loss in seven seats. Let’s introduce the Chohtan assembly result into the mix, too, where though the margin of BJP’s loss was more than 3,000 votes (4,262), NOTA votes were even higher (5,391).

Now, even if we transfer all NOTA votes to the BJP, it wins eight more than its current tally of 73, taking the score to 81. While this brings the Congress tally down to 90, it still remains well ahead.

Though we have assumed all NOTA voters to be potential BJP supporters, it would be farcical to think so. And we haven’t taken into account 10 close contests where the BJP defeated the Congress, and in some of these cases, NOTA votes were higher than the margin of Congress’ loss. But even in the best-case scenario, the BJP gets 81 compared to Congress’ 90. So, NOTA didn’t defeat the party in Rajasthan.

Now, let’s turn to Madhya Pradesh, where the contest was much tighter. Vote shares of the BJP, Congress, and NOTA were 41, 40.9, and 1.4 per cent respectively. Add all NOTA votes to the BJP’s tally and the party seems to take a considerable lead. But, again, let’s go into the details for clarity.

In 31 seats, the margin of victory was less than 3,000 votes. Of these, the BJP won 16 and lost 15. Of the lost seats, only in 10 seats was the margin of BJP’s loss less than NOTA votes.

Here, if we transfer all the NOTA votes to the BJP, it wins 119 seats and the Congress comes down to 104, handing the BJP a clear majority. That’s the best-case scenario for the BJP and certainly not the practical one.

Next, let’s assume that only 50 per cent of the NOTA votes go to the BJP and the rest remain in NOTA: the BJP wins six more seats, taking the tally to 115, with the Congress at 108. In this scenario, the BJP forms the government comfortably.

Now, let’s take an even more practical approach and assume only one-third of the NOTA votes go to the BJP and the rest remain in NOTA: the BJP then wins three more seats, taking the tally to 112, compared to the 111 of the Congress.

Of course, the assumption here is that a fraction of the NOTA votes go only to the BJP and none to the Congress. We have also ignored 16 close contests where the BJP has won and where in many of those, the margin of Congress’ loss is less than NOTA.

After being very generous to the BJP on the NOTA front, it becomes the single-largest party by one seat. Can, then, one conclusively say that NOTA defeated the BJP in Madhya Pradesh? I wouldn’t. And the party must not make a mistake in thinking that way.

To be honest, NOTA isn’t even in the top five reasons for the loss. There was voter fatigue. There was incredible anti-incumbency against local members of legislative assembly. But all of this could have been avoided had the feedback of ground workers in candidate selection was taken seriously. Instead, the chief minister foisted his friends.

Take the case of Vidisha, where the BJP has been winning comfortably in the past elections. It lost this seat by 15,000 votes! Chouhan gave the ticket to his friend Mukesh Tandon and ignored both caste considerations and ground feedback.

Similarly, it was clear in Bijawar to anyone who spent even a couple of hours there that Bablu Bhaiyya was wildly popular but Chouhan instead gave the ticket to an outsider who was facing extreme anti-incumbency. Bablu got the ticket from the Samajwadi Party and defeated the BJP candidate by over 35,000 votes. In seats like Rajnagar, the margin of loss was merely 700 votes. Here, the Thakur candidate of the BJP, who used to lose and was changed this time, had openly revolted. Such examples abound.

So, instead of blaming the NOTA, the party and its supporters would be well-advised to focus their energies on getting the basics right. If today it is not in power in Bhopal, then it has only itself – and its outgoing chief minister – to blame.