Chandigarh Via Delhi: Hooda’s CM Card Trumps Modi’s PM Card In Sonipat Thanks To BJP’s Bad Candidate Selection

All 10 Lok Sabha seats in Haryana go to polls in the sixth phase tomorrow (12 May). All over the country, 2019 general election is a referendum on Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In Haryana, it is playing out as a semi-final to assembly polls scheduled to be held later this year in October. The credit for masterminding this situation goes to former chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda who convinced his old pals like Ghulam Nabi Azad in the Congress high command to field all Chief Minister hopefuls from the party in this general election - Ashok Tanwar from Sirsa, Kumari Selja from Ambala, Kuldeep Bishnoi’s son Bhavya from Hisar, Kiran Chaudhary’s daughter Shruti from Bhiwani, Capt Ajay Singh Yadav from Gurugram, etc.

Hooda himself has jumped in Lok Sabha election arena after a gap of 15 years, that too from Sonipat instead of his home constituency of Rohtak where his son Deepender, three term MP from the seat, is contesting. Hooda knows very well that these two seats are Congress’ best bet. The rest eight will likely prove to be political graveyards for all other CM hopefuls in the party thanks to Modi wave which is set to take Haryana by storm again, this time more strongly not just because the wave itself is stronger but also because the BJP is in power in the state and has managed to turn 70 per cent non-Jats against 30 per cent Jats thus rigging the arithmetic game at the cost of bhaichara.

Apart from Congress, a new player, who is eyeing the Chief Minister’s chair, is also in the fray - Dushyant Chautala. The 31 year old is contesting from Hisar which he currently represents and which made him the youngest MP in 2014. He and his brother Digvijay along with their father Ajay Singh broke away from family-run party Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) which was being controlled by Ajay’s younger brother Abhay Chautala since Ajay and their father Om Prakash Chautala are in jail serving 10 year term in teacher recruitment scam. Ajay and his two sons launched their own outfit Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) in December last year. In Jind by-poll held in January this year, JJP fielded Digvijay Chautala who performed exceptionally well and came 2nd while the parent INLD faction came distant fifth, fetched 3,000 odd votes and suffered humiliating defeat. The debate has been settled. JJP led by young turks Dushyant and Digvijay is the preferred choice of Chautala clan’s loyal vote base.

Buoyed by Jind’s performance, Dushyant Chautala fielded his younger brother Digvijay from Sonipat, hours after Congress announced Hooda’s candidature. The sole objective behind the move was to defeat Hooda by cutting into Jat votes even if it meant BJP winning the seat.

While both Dushyant Chautala and Bhupinder Hooda are dreaming of going to Chandigarh via Delhi, paving path to CM post by becoming an MP first, truth is they are really fighting for the chair of the leader of opposition. Because in absence of any real anti-incumbency and as long as there is Jat-non Jat divide working in BJP’s favour, both Chautala and Hooda have only so much personal electoral potential to deliver 15 odds seats each for their party in 90-member house.

Nonetheless, in light of these political equations and developments, Sonipat and Hisar Lok Sabha seats have assumed more importance than the rest of the eight seats combined. Swarajya visited both these constituencies to gauge the mood of the electorate and the issues defining their voting choice. Here we will discuss Sonipat.

Read our ground report on Hisar here.

Hooda’s Chaudhar trumps Modi wave, spoils BJP’s Jat-not Jat calculation

Hooda’s candidature from Sonipat was not a done deal. He was waiting and watching if the BJP would repeat its incumbent and highly unpopular MP Ramesh Kaushik. The BJP did. That sealed his decision. In addition, Hooda knew that if he decides to contest, JJP would certainly field Digvijay Chautala with the objective of cutting Jat votes from Jind, Julana and Safidon assembly constituencies which are strongholds of Chautalas. Despite this, Hooda took the plunge. This gamble is likely to pay off.

“It’s an election about local candidates now. Hooda did a lot of work in Sonipat when he was CM. His past performance will fetch him even non-Congress votes as well,” says Rajbir Singh of Thana Kalan village. At the village panchayat hall, villagers are gathering to listen to JJP’s Digvijay Chautala. “Hooda sahb will be MP for five months. He will leave Sonipat and contest from Garhi-Sampla Kiloi come assembly elections in October. I will be your representative for five years,” he tells people.

This has been major attacking point by Chautala but clearly it’s not working. "That’s what we want. We don’t want him as MP but as CM. The road to Chandigarh this time is via Delhi,” says an elder who has come to listen to Chautala. Two youth in the crowd, Naveen and Anoop Dahiya, say they will vote for BJP because of Modi but agree that Congress will corner most of Jat votes in the village.

In Kharkhauda town, at the BJP office, a group of more than 10 youth is engaged in raucous discussion. All are backing Hooda. “Hooda ne kya nahi karwaya yahan. Saara vikas unki den hai,” says Naresh Gupta. “Congress has advantage because of Hooda otherwise BJP would’ve won easily again,” he adds. Vijay Kawad tells me how bad a candidate Ramesh Kaushik is and how he hasn’t set foot even once in villages in last five years after winning. “Who used to give a damn about Kharkhauda anyway? One acre used to sell for Rs 3 lakh, now it costs Rs 3 crore. That’s the legacy of Hooda,” says an agitated Vipul Dev.

In Barauna village, Jagbir Singh assures me that there is no Jat-non Jat divide on the ground at least in Sonipat in this election as is being projected in the media. ”Situation has certainly turned in Congress favour in Barauna due to Hooda but the vote is for the candidate and not the party. Saara raula Chaudhar ka hogya,” says Surender Singh, a BJP voter.

In Kharkhauda town, it’s not hard to find Jats voting for BJP and non-Jats supporting Hooda. At a baithak where 13 people are playing cards, Avtar Singh is all praise for Modi for nationalistic moves and keeping inflation in check. Naresh Garg lists the work done by Hooda for Sonipat.

“Bezzatti ho jaagi bateu hara diya to (It would be a matter of shame if we defeat our son in law,” says Rakesh Dahiya of Sisana village, one of the largest villages in Kharkhauda assembly constituency. “We don’t have any problem with Modi though. Wo ek number ka aadmi hai,” he hastens to add. His friend Vikas Dahiya tells me that last time votes were divided between Congress and INLD but this time, most are backing Hooda.

Dharambir, an elder, says the vote is not for Congress. “Rahul kaabil nahi hai. Vote to Hooda ki wajah se de rahe hain. Wo halke ki shaan hai (Hooda is our pride),” he says. He used to be a traditional INLD voter but turned to Congress after Hooda showered development works in Sonipat area during his CM tenure. “Modi to theek hai par yo Khattar paani nahi deta (Modi is ok but this Khattar doesn’t give enough water supply for irrigation),” Ramphal Dahiya tells me.

Harijans in the village are with the BJP. “Our people can now get jobs based on merit, without paying bribes or without any connection to political class,” Naveen Kumar says.

At a baithak in the village, Jaisingh Dahiya details how his village benefited from Hooda’s good governance. “From 5-6 hours of power supply, we started getting 14-15 hours of electricity. Water supply for irrigation was best under Hooda. All kacha streets were paved with cement,” he says. For Surender Dahiya, it doesn’t matter if Hooda leaves this seat to contest assembly elections. “That is irrelevant. We are voting for him to strengthen his candidacy for chief ministership,” he says. “Since this BJP government has come to power, they have spread poison in the society by dividing people in Jat-non Jat groups,” Kartar Singh rues.

In Gannaur, where BJP did better than Congress and INLD in 2014, situation is not good for the party. Outside of a hookah tobacco shop, a group of 11 people is engrossed in friendly banter. All are supporting Hooda. “Those few who are voting for BJP are doing so because of Modi. Kaushik has only lost votes for the party,” says Sahil Khokhar. “Kaushik is our family friend. We supported him last time with votes and money. We approached him sometime back for a small favour. He treated us like shit as if we are his enemies,” says a local resident who doesn’t wish to be identified. “We would’ve voted for any other candidate. The BJP could’ve fielded Rajiv Jain, Kavita Jain or Krishna Gahlawat. Then Hooda himself wouldn’t have come here to contest,” says Ashok Sharma. His friend Keshav Verma seconds.

At another baithak in the town, people make allegations about the corrupt deeds of Kaushik and how he misused his position as MP in the last five years to mint money which he then used to buy the party ticket.

On the main road, near Ganaur railway station, we meet a group of five people, who have had enough of Kaushik. “Hooda gave us sabzi mandi terminal, acquired 500 acre land. That would’ve really helped farmers in the area. Now that project has been stalled for the last five years. Every project started by Hooda has been stopped by this government, “ Jaibhagwan Tyagi says. “All this talk of Jat-Non Jat is nonsense. There are more than 20 non-Jat villages here and most of them voted for BJP overwhelmingly giving Kaushik good leads from Ganaur. That’s not the case this time,” he adds. “Hooda is not campaigning properly due to old age and other constraints. If he goes to every village like his opponents are doing, he would probably win by more than 2-2.5 lakh votes,” says Ram Singh. “Did anyone know this Jat-non Jat divide before BJP came to power in the state?,” an elder asks rhetorically.

In the market, two elders from Saini community feel that BJP has ignored Dalits and lower OBCs who are excluded from its Non-Jat definition. “What is this non-Jat thing? Only Punjabis, Brahmins, Baniyas and other upper castes come under this definition. People like us don’t have a place,” they say. Both will vote for BSP-LSP joint candidate.

In Baroda assembly constituency, we visited Bhainswal Kalan, Baroda town and Ahulana village. Congress performed exceptionally well here in 2014 taking a lead of almost 18,000 votes. This time, this is set to widen further.

“We also want Modi as PM but Hooda’s victory from Sonipat is crucial. Kaushik is a terrible candidate and he is getting votes only due to Modi,” Ajit Singh Malik says. An ex-serviceman, he is thankful to Modi government for implementing OROP due to which his monthly pension has increased by Rs 10,000. “Hooda’s biggest mistake was not filling thousands of government jobs on time. Khattar has done a great job on this front,” he adds.

Rajendra Khasa of Baroda voted for BJP in 2014 but will back Hooda this time. “He is a big leader. PM should be Modi but for CM we want Hooda. We have to make him win for this reason,” he says.

All this is not surprising. But Hooda is gaining even in traditional INLD strongholds like Julana where he has been a detested figure for he ignored the Jind district during his tenure as Chief Minister. In Julana assembly constituency, we visited big villages like Lajwana, Shamlo Kalan and Gatauli. Villagers here told me that since Hooda stands a better chance of defeating the BJP, they will back him. INLD cadres don’t think that their new party JJP stands a chance in Lok Sabha election in Sonipat so some of them are voting for Hooda. BJP is not only losing votes (especially of farmers) due to anti-incumbency of the candidate but also due to that of the state and central government.

If Hooda can make Congress take lead in Julana type seat, it would be hard for Kaushik to recover this loss from either Sonipat or Jind, two areas which BJP is expected to do better than Congress.

Take a look at votes secured by three top contenders in 2014.

Congress party’s Jagbir Singh Malik lost to BJP’s Ramesh Kaushik by a margin of 77,000 votes.

Malik was just a local MLA from Gohana. He was given ticket after the then sitting Congress MP Jitender Malik refused to contest. Additionally, as the data above shows, INLD secured almost as many votes as Congress. It’s candidate Padam Singh Dahiya got considerable votes from Sonipat district as he was a local as well as from Dahiya sub community of Jats which is the biggest Khap in this area.

In 2019, three factors are working in Congress favour.

One, Hooda is the most popular leader in Sonipat who did a lot of development work in the district during his decade long stint as chief minister. His wife is a Dahiya which makes him the local son-in-law of the soil if not the son. In Haryana, the former gets showered with much more love than the latter. CM Khattar didn’t help matters by calling Hooda a “bigdail daamad”, an insult which the Dahiya Khap has taken serious offence to.

Second, Digvijay may be popular JJP face but he is not a local like Padam Singh Dahiya. INLD was strong in three constituencies of Jind district which fall in Sonipat Lok Sabha seat so it always fielded a strong candidate from Sonipat area to get that incremental vote to count as a force to be reckoned with. Thus, unlike in 2014, when INLD got more than 1.5 lakh votes from six assembly constituencies of Sonipat district, JJP will get a lot less.

Third, BJP’s Ramesh Kaushik in last five years has managed to antagonize and alienate voters across castes either with his arrogance or by his absence from the constituency. So, many people who ignored the candidate and voted for Modi in 2014 are in no mood to do that again.

This report is part of Swarajya's 50 Ground Stories Project - an attempt to throw light on issues and constituencies the old media largely refuses to engage. You can support this initiative by sponsoring as little as Rs 2,999. Click here for more details