Counting Day: Keep Your Eye On These 10 Seats In Madhya Pradesh

While the exit polls may have awarded the state of Madhya Pradesh to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), victory can only be presumed in the last round of counting.

Given how close the vote share between the BJP and Congress is, close fights cannot be ruled out, especially if a few pollsters are proven wrong, and the BJP only manages up to 120 seats in the final tally.

Chances are that the final vote share difference between the two parties could be less than 1.5 percentage points. That is where these 15 seats become important, going by how slim the margins were (less than 3,000 votes). 

It is important to note that all these 15 seats were won by the Congress in 2018, but more importantly, 10 of these seats were gains. Put simply, these ten seats took away the election from the BJP. 

Gwalior South 

Congress won this seat by 121 votes in 2018. In 2023, the Congress and the BJP are in a direct battle, and as per the early exit poll surveys, the BJP is leading. Narayan Singh Kushwah is in a direct battle with Praveen Pathak of the Congress, who would be looking to defend his seat. AAP and BSP are also fighting on this seat. 

Damoh 

Congress wrestled this seat from the BJP, which won it in 2008 and 2013, by merely 798 votes. The early surveys are giving the seat to the BJP. Jayant Malaiya of the BJP will take on Ajay Kumar Tandon of the Congress. However, the presence of AAP, BSP, and SP could cut through Congress’ vote share in the assembly. BSP had over 5,400 votes on this seat in 2018 and stood third. 

Gunnaor 

All it took was 1,984 votes for the Congress to rob this seat of the BJP, that too when the latter had held it for a decade. In 2023, the early surveys are giving the seat to Congress in a tight contest. From the Congress, Jeevan Lal Siddharth will take on Rajesh Kumar Verma of the BJP. BSP and SP are also contenders for this seat. BSP stood third on this seat in 2018, with over 32,000 votes, making up for 20 per cent of the vote share. 

Jabalpur Uttar

BJP, as per the early surveys, is expected to win this seat, one they won in both 2008 and 2013, and lost by merely 578 seats in 2018. While a direct contest is expected between the two parties, the BSP could come into play if the margins are similar to those in 2018. 

Congress is expected to win this seat, one they won in 2018 by 826 votes. The party had won the seat in 2008 as well. Narayan Singh Panwar of the BJP is taking on Purushottam Dangi of the Congress. BJP could not gain back this seat even in the 2020 bypolls. 

Mandhata 

While the BJP wrestled this seat back in the by-polls of 2020, Congres won this seat in 2018 with a little over 1,200 votes. In an expected tight contest, the early surveys are not giving the seat to any one party. Quite like in 2018, this seat will be decided on slim margins in 2023, it appears. Uttam Rajnarayan Singh Purni of the Congress will take on Narayan Patel of the BJP. 

Nepanagar 

Another seat that BJP wrestled back in 2020 by-polls after losing it to the Congress in 2018, by 1,264 votes. The early surveys are giving the seat to the BJP. Gendu Bai of the Congress will take on Manju Rajendra Dadu of the BJP. BSP is also fighting on this seat. BSP stood 4th in this seat with around 2,900 votes in 2018. 

Jobat 

BJP lost this seat in 2018 by a little over 2,056 votes, and is expected to not make a comeback in 2023. Expected to be a direct contest, BJP would not have the voter-cutting BSP or SP to better its prospects on this seat. In 2018, BSP had 2,600-odd votes on this seat. 

Sanwer 

Another close seat was won by the Congress in 2018, by around 2,900 votes, only to lose it later in the by-polls to the BJP in 2020. The early surveys give the BJP an edge on this seat. Tulsiram Silawat of the BJP will take on Reena Bourasi Didi of the Congress. BSP stood third in this seat in 2018 with around 2,800 votes. 

Tarana 

Congress gained this seat from the BJP with over 2,200 votes in 2018. As per early surveys, Congress was leading in this seat, but BJP looks favourite to make a comeback. The BSP is also fighting on this seat, and given they won 1,300 votes in 2018, they could prove to be instrumental to the prospects of either party. 

The author would like to thank Venu Gopal Narayanan for the electoral data.