Exit Polls: Didi in Bengal, LDF in Kerala, BJP in Assam; But TN May Jolt Amma

The exit polls for the five state assembly elections that concluded today (16 May) have broadly thrown up the likely victors: in West Bengal it will be Mamata Didi all the way; in Assam, the BJP-led coalition is well positioned to grab power after 15 years of Congress rule; Tamil Nadu could produce an upset, where Amma could be dethroned by the DMK-led coalition; and in Kerala, as expected, the LDF is likely to win big. Pondicherry will go the Tamil Nadu way, with DMK heading for victory.

But if the pollsters have got the broad trajectory of voter sentiment right, they have got the range of seat counts so wildly off the map that the predictions look suspicious: in West Bengal, for example, the Axis-MyIndia-India Today poll gives Trinamool as many as 243 seats – reducing the Left-Congress alliance to 45; but C-Voter gives the TMC only a reasonable majority of 167 seats, with the Left-Congress combo getting a decent 110 seats between them. So is Mamata winning hands down or just about comfortably? Another poll gave her 178.

Ditto for Assam, where three polls – Axis-MyIndia, ABP Ananda and Chanakya - gave the BJP-AGP-Bodo combo seats in the 80-90 range, well beyond the halfway mark of 63. But C-Voter gives the BJP+ grouping only 57 – which opens up the possibility of a hung assembly.

The Kerala vote seems less doubtful, with all polls giving the LDF a clear sweep, in the range of 78-101 seats. The halfway mark is 70, and the only surprise element will be whether the BJP will finally make an entry into the assembly or not. Most polls give it 1-3 seats. But the BJP’s entry may have helped the Left get a bigger victory than earlier expected, by shifting the anti-BJP vote more sharply towards the Left.

In Tamil Nadu, two polls gave diametrically opposite results: while one expects the DMK-Congress front to win with a range of 124-140 seats, C-Voter gave the exact opposite picture – 139 for AIADMK, and just 78 for DMK. A third poll – NewsNation – made the fight a bit closer, giving the DMK front the edge with 114-118 seats, barely at the halfway mark, and giving the AIADMK 95-99. In this scenario, Vijayakanth’s DMDK-led front may become important.

The remaining fronts will actually get crumbs. The only thing that seems certain is that Tamil Nadu’s polarised electorate has continued to prefer the two main Dravidian parties. They are the Tweedledum and Tweedledee between whom the voters choose. The rest are just bit or support players.

The certainties are thus Mamata Didi in Bengal and the LDF in Kerala. The DMK-AIADMK fight in Tamil Nadu may go to the wire, and while the BJP-led front is ahead in Assam, one should not rule out a surprise swing that makes its pole position a bit short of real victory.

We have to wait till 19 May to know the final results, but one thing is clear: the pollsters are still clueless in two of the four big states that went to the polls.