Goa 2017 Elections - Critical For BJP While AAP Hopes For A Breakthrough

We now approach the quiet period after a hectic election season - the rest of 2016 can at best be described as an intermission. And from here on, the political game is changing in a significant manner.

If one takes a step back, since 2012, the Congress has had a dismal time as the incumbent ruler, and the BJP has made great leaps as the challenger. Within this dynamic, the BJP has done rather well, winning large states such as Maharashtra, Haryana, Assam and Rajasthan in direct fights with Congress, and has also secured Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh in coalitions.

However, the trend of Congress being the incumbent will somewhat end from 2017, when Goa and Punjab go to polls. Punjab is largely a headache for the Akali Dal, but in Goa, BJP will be heading towards a straight fight with the Congress, with the difference of being an incumbent, and not the challenger.

Recent historical context

The BJP’s full majority in 2012 Goa elections set a very interesting precedent. From a party which won 0.4% vote share in 1989, the BJP was able to secure a simple majority for itself in 2012, with a contested vote share of ~50%. The party had also selectively backed several independent minority candidates in South Goa, and also tied up with Maharashtra Gomantak party, a local party with some areas of influence.

The Congress, suffering from defections and corruption charges did little to turnaround this momentum in 2014, when BJP won both the Lok Sabha seats in Goa, with a lead of 33 assembly segments versus 7 for Congress.

BJP may have a long term advantage in Goa

There are two data points which point to long term dominance for the BJP in the state of Goa.

First, it is simply demographics. Goa, since its liberation has been gradually turning more Hindu. It is one of the few states in the union where the proportion of Hindus has been rising over the decades, and was ~66% in 2011, up from 60% in 1961.

Christians, who are the second largest religious group in Goa, have however seen a 13pp decline in the last 50 years, from 38% in 1961 to ~25% in 2011.

Interestingly, the larger increase has been seen in the Muslim population, which has grown from ~2% to over 8%. This displacement is more stark when one looks at the breakdown through the districts, with North Goa being largely Hindu, and South Goa being dominated by Christians and Muslims.

The second advantage BJP appears to have is its relative position versus the Congress in the state. As mentioned earlier, the BJP has made great strides in Goa since 1989, when it was a non-player. In 2012, the BJP’s contested vote share touched almost 50%, and it outstripped Congress by a wide margin. While some declines can be expected, the Congress will need to work hard, both within the leadership and on the ground to actually capture any losses BJP has.

This at the current juncture is not a guarantee, and Congress will need to recover above 40% vote share to have a material chance of winning back the state.

The BJP has had stellar growth in Goa in last 30 years. But the short term situation is fluid.

Much has changed in Goa since the 2014 elections. Manohar Parrikar, the architect of the 2012 victory has shifted his base to New Delhi. Laxmikant Parsekar, a veteran of Goa BJP was made the CM in November 2014, and his performance has been largely forgettable. Nonetheless, prospects of a leadership change this close to elections seems unlikely, and Parsekar is likely to continue till elections are held in Q1 2017.

There are a few unknown factors which can hurt Congress’s challenge

In the lead up to the 2017 elections, the Congress has been maintaining a low profile. Despite calls for infusing fresh blood in the party, its key leaders in the state, like former CM Digambar Kamat (embroiled in a corruption scandal), Party President Luizinho Faleiro and former CM Pratapsingh Rane appear to be firmly in control, thus creating a sense of stagnation. As such, current MLAs, like Mauvin Godinho, have already announced their intention to contest for BJP in the next round of elections, current seat notwithstanding. Further, old hands such as Churchill Alemao and Babush Monserrate, both out of Congress now, have been dealing with legal troubles, but remain influential in seats which can be considered Congress’s backyards in the state. Hence the party has not really been able to bring out the mediocre performance of the BJP government post Parrikar.

AAP is lurching at Congress Party’s vote

The opposition appears to be led by two new parties in the state. First, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is making a bid to grow in Goa, becoming the third state after Delhi and Punjab that Arvind Kejriwal has set his eyes on. A look at the 2014 elections may give us some clue as to why AAP has picked Goa. Apart from being one of the richest state in the union, Goa is also one of the most urbanized states at ~63% in 2011. Constrained by size, AAP came third in 26 assembly segments out of 40 in 2014 elections, and achieved 3.4% vote share. This was a relatively impressive performance in an otherwise forgettable national election for AAP.

Further, with Goa having a large minority population and a Congress infrastructure firmly in decline, AAP has a natural growth base, particularly in South Goa. There have been reports that AAP may tap Rajdeep Sardesai as a potential CM candidate, although Arvind Kejriwal’s rally recently had a mixed response, despite Sardesai being present. Nonetheless, Sardesai’s nomination may appeal to both minorities and the Goud Saraswat Brahmins in the state, a community that incidentally both Manohar Parrikar and Sardesai belong to.

However, one thing that AAP will struggle to capture is large scale anti-incumbency, which unlike Delhi is not present to the same degree in Goa. Hence at the current juncture, one can expect less of an impact from AAP than it made in Delhi.

Goa Forward is an unknown entity

The second key opposition challenge comes in the form of an untested group called Goa forward party. Led by former state election commissioner Prabhakar Timble, the unregisterd outfit claims the support of Congress rebels and independent MLAs, who historically play an important role in Goa. While some talks about aligning with Congress have been initiated, it is difficult to say how much impact Goa Forward will have on the 2017 polls.

Coalitions matter

A key advantage for the BJP at this juncture is its ability to attract allies. As mentioned earlier, MGP is a natural ally in North Goa, and it is also likely that BJP will tie up with Goa Vikas Party, a regional outfit in South Goa led by Francisco Pacheco, who was recently convicted in for six months for assault, leading to his resignation as a minister. While GVP leadership may not be ideal, they may have a captive base of 2-3 seats, like MGP.

At the same time, Congress’ talks with Goa Forward appears to have hit a dead end, with Congress leadership insisting on merger, which appears unlikely. With AAP entering the fray and unlikely to seek large scale tie ups, it appears that opposition is unlikely to be unitary for the BJP, which may give it some advantage.

The national picture – Goa is far more important for BJP than one thinks

After the Assam elections, BJP has maintained an envious record against the Congress in direct fights. While it is unlikely to be etched in stone, ahead of Himachal and Gujarat elections in 2017, BJP goes head to head with Congress in Goa. A loss for BJP will be its first direct loss to Congress since Karnataka elections in 2012, reversing a five year winning streak.

At this juncture, BJP appears to be in a position of relative strength in Goa, but that can easily be reversed, if the opposition turns creative enough.

The author acknowledges significant input received from Nimish Joshi (@nimish_joshi) and Aashish Chandorkar (@c_aashish) in writing of this piece.