Just Short Of Majority But Congress In Pole Position To Form Next Government In MP

With Election commission declaring the results for all but one constituency in the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections, the Congress party will finish with a tally of 114 seats, tantalisingly close to the majority mark of 116. The Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) will have 109 members in the new assembly.

The role of four elected Independents becomes decisive in the formation of the next government. The good news for Congress is that four independent are Congress rebels owing personal allegiance to one of three party heavyweights - Digvijay Singh, Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia.

Congress is in pole position to form the next government if it is able to persuade the four rebels to return to the party fold. The party can seek additional comfort by gaining the support of two elected members of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the lone candidate of its erstwhile ally, the Samajwadi Party. With support of 120 elected members, Congress will inch towards a simple working majority in the new state assembly.

A brief profile of the four Independents

1. Pradeep Amratlal Jaiswal (Gudda), Waraseoni assembly constituency in Balaghat

A rebel Congress candidate Pradeep Jaiswal was a three-time MLA who jumped into the fray as independent candidate after he was refused ticket by his party from Waraseoni assembly constituency in Balaghat district.

Interestingly, Congress denied him a ticket and instead fielded Sanjay Singh Masani, the brother-in-law of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan. In what was seen as an embarrassment to Chouhan, Masani joined the Congress in the run up to the election.

Jaiswal was defeated by BJP Candidate Dr Yogish Nirmal in 2013 assembly polls. However this time around Jaiswal, fighting as an independent, prevailed over Dr Nirmal.

Jaiswal is a local strongman who runs several businesses and has declared assets totalling Rs 30 crore.

Sitting BJP legislator Dr Nirmal, a grassroot swayamsevak known as doctor sahib, enjoyed enormous goodwill in the constituency for his personal integrity and spartan lifestyle but faced a strong undercurrent as he was seen as “ineffective” in patronage dispensation.

2.  Vikram Singh Rana, Susner assembly seat in Malwa

Vikram Singh Rana aka Guddu Baiya is a Congress rebel. He had contested the 2008 assembly election as a Congress candidate but lost to the BJP’s Santhosh Joshi. After his hope of getting a ticket from the Congress were dashed as the party decided to field Mahendra Singh Bhairu, Rana plunged in to the field as an Independent and defeated his nearest contender by over 25,000 votes.

Susner seat is dominated by the Sondhiya Rajput community who wield considerable clout in determining the outcome.

Rana is a loyal follower of former Congress general secretary and CM Digvijay Singh.

3. Kedar Chidabhai Dawar, Bhagwanpura

Kedar Dawar decided to contest elections as an independent candidate after Congress denied him a ticket. Kedar Dawar, won by 9,716 votes, defeating BJP's Jamna Singh Solanki.

Bhagwanpura constituency, a part of Khargone district is reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST)

4. Surendra Singh Naval Singh

Thakur Surendra Singh Naval Singh alias Shera Bhaiya defeated state education minister Archana Chitnis by over 5000 votes.

Shera Bhaiyya is a local popular strongman in Burhanpur, a city which falls in the Nimar region of the state.