Karnataka: Siddaramaiah Fancied AHINDA-dominated Kolar Seat But Congress Top Brass Asks Him To Look Elsewhere Over Fears Of Possible Defeat

The Congress High Command has reportedly instructed former chief minister Siddaramaiah to abandon his plan to take the electoral plunge from the Kolar constituency in the upcoming state polls and asked him to enter the fray from his traditional stronghold of Varuna in Mysuru district.

With internal party surveys predicting a rough ride for the former CM in Kolar, the high command wants him to campaign extensively across the state and avoid getting tied down with electioneering activities in his own seat. The party also fears that an informal arrangement will be forged between JD(S) and BJP to ensure that he has a tough fight in Kolar.

The defection of Srinivasa Gowda, the incumbent JD(S) legislator, from the seat to Congress has also queered the pitch for Siddaramaiah as Deve Gowda family has openly declared its intent to teach a lesson to the Congress. Gowda staged an open revolt against JD-S leadership by defying the party whip and voting for a Congress candidate in the 2022 Rajya Sabha polls.

Varthur Prakash, once a close aide of Siddaramaiah, has also declared that he will be ready to take on his former mentor if the ruling BJP decides to field him from the seat.

Prakash has previously won twice from the constituency and on both occasions, he contested as an independent. "If Siddaramaiah has guts he should contest against me from Kolar," Prakash recently told the local media.

Prakash, who wields considerable influence among a section of Kurubas in rural Bengaluru, claimed he would defeat Siddaramaiah by a wide margin.

The strong prospect of internal sabotage also forces the party to ask him to pick a safe seat. The former CM has a long-running feud with former Union Minister and senior Congress leader Muniyappa who holds considerable sway in the Kolar region. Muniyappa holds Siddaramaiah responsible for his defeat in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Muniyappa won 7 successive elections from the Kolar Lok Sabha constituency.

Based on the high command's instructions, Siddaramaiah, who had planned a three-day visit to Kolar to hold rallies from Sunday, cancelled his programme.

Why Siddaramaiah fancies Kolar?

Siddaramaiah projects himself as the undisputed leader of a social coalition in Karnataka broadly termed AHINDA, an acronym for the Kannada words Alpasankhyataru (Minorities), Hindulidavaru (Backward Classes) and Dalitaru (Dalits). He zeroed in on Kolar as a safe bastion, given the constituency comprises a sizeable number of voters from minorities, backward classes including Kuruba and SC/ST communities.

According to estimates by local political observers, 70% of the 2.3 lakh voters in Kolar belong to AHINDA, with nearly 30,000 Kuruba voters, a community to which Siddaramaiah belongs. The constituency also has 40,000 Muslim voters.

However, the polarizing politics of Siddaramaiah, based on aggressive caste rhetoric, could help JD(S) woo Vokkaligas and voters from other communities, who are also sizeable in number, to pose a formidable challenge to the Kuruba leader.

For someone considered a stalwart by his supporters, Siddaramaiah has a mixed electoral track record. He has contested eight elections from Chamundeshwari since 1983 and won five of them. He won twice (in 2008 and 2013) from Varuna before relinquishing the seat to his son, Yathindra.

Redux of 2018?

In the 2018 state assembly elections, Siddaramaiah, who was then the incumbent chief minister, contested from two constituencies - Badami in the Bagalkote district of Kittur Karnataka and Chamundeshwari in the Old Mysuru region. He had vacated Varuna for his son and chosen political successor Yathindra.

While Siddaramaiah scraped through in Badami by a meagre margin of 1696 votes, he suffered a humiliating loss in Chamundeshwari as JD-S veteran G.T. Deve Gowda trounced him by a margin of over 36, 042 votes. The former CM blamed his defeat on the machinations of forces within his party.

In Badami, Siddaramaiah calculated that he would notch a facile victory on the strength of his numerically sizeable Kuruba community and en-masse backing of Muslims, but BJP candidate Sriramulu posed a strong challenge by achieving a counter consolidation of Nayaka Scheduled Tribe community votes and Lingayats.

After his narrow win in Badami, Siddaramaiah did not nurse the constituency claiming that distance from Bengaluru prevented him from discharging his duties as the local legislator.