Learning From Lok Sabha Election Errors, BJP Improves Candidate Selection For Assembly Bypolls In Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan

Poor ticket distribution was considered one of the main reasons for the setback faced by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where the ruling party could not secure a majority on its own.

Now the BJP appears to be on a course-correction mission, as can be understood from the candidates it has declared for the assembly bypolls, especially in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh (UP).

In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP could not hit a hattrick of clean sweeps in Rajasthan; it won 14 of 25 seats. Similarly, in UP, the BJP is down to 33 seats from 62 in 2019.

The losses were attributed to poor ticket distribution. In Rajasthan's Churu, for instance, the BJP denied a ticket to the incumbent member of parliament (MP) Rahul Kaswan. Kaswan joined the Congress and won the election for the third consecutive time.

Similarly, in UP, the Rajput community moved away from the party due to Rajput leaders being denied tickets. The party also lost many seats in the state because sitting MPs facing anti-incumbency were fielded again.

However, ticket distribution appears to be better now, ahead of bypolls. The BJP has taken better care of caste arithmetic and winnability factors than they did before the Lok Sabha election.

Rajasthan

Of the seven seats up for bypolls in Rajasthan, BJP won only one seat of Salumber in the 2023 assembly election. However, in the bypolls, it can win four to five of these seven seats due to good candidate selection.

The Salumber seat in Udaipur district fell vacant after the death of the incumbent BJP member of the legislative assembly (MLA) Amrit Lal Meena. The BJP has now fielded his wife, Shanta Devi Meena, and hopes to win the seat through a sympathy wave.

On the remaining six seats, the BJP has not given tickets to candidates who lost the 2023 assembly election, except in Khinwsar where Revant Ram Danga has got the opportunity once again.

A BJP victory appears possible in Khinwsar because the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) has fielded Nagaur MP Hanuman Beniwal's wife, Kanika Beniwal, a political debutant, instead of his former MLA brother, Narayan Beniwal.

Similarly, the Congress has fielded a relatively unknown Ratan Choudhary. Interestingly, she is the wife of former Indian Police Service (IPS) officer and former BJP leader Sawai Singh Choudhary, who stepped down soon after his wife received the ticket.

There is a three-cornered fight in Chorasi as well. Here, the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) has declared a candidate of its own, breaking the Lok Sabha alliance with the Congress, giving the BJP candidate an edge.

In Ramgarh, the BJP has fielded the runner-up of the 2023 and 2018 assembly elections, Sukhwant Singh. Similarly, in Jhunjhunu, it has fielded Rajendra Singh Bhamboo, who lost the 2018 assembly election.

However, the BJP is unlikely to win these two seats as they are family seats of Congress leaders. The son of Brijendra Ola, who vacated the seat after winning the Lok Sabha election, Amit Ola has been fielded in Jhunjhunu.

The BJP has fielded Rajasthan Minister Kirodi Lal Meena's brother, Jagmohan Meena, in Dausa. Notably, Kirodi Lal had stepped down from the Cabinet due to the BJP's loss in the Dausa Lok Sabha constituency. He will personally work to ensure the BJP wins this seat, so that he can rejoin the Cabinet.

In Deoli-Uniyara, the BJP has fielded former MLA Rajendra Gurjar to take advantage of the presence of the Gurjar population in the constituency. The Congress candidate is Kastoor Chand Meena, the aide of Tonk-Sawai Madhopur MP, Harish Meena, who vacated the seat after winning in the Lok Sabha election.

Uttar Pradesh

In UP, of the nine seats up for bypolls, three had BJP MLAs and four had Samajwadi Party (SP) MLAs. One MLA each from BJP allies Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and NISHAD party had the other two seats.

The BJP has given the Meerapur seat of Muzaffarnagar to RLD to contest and has declared candidates for the remaining eight seats, with a target to win at least six.

The most notable is the fact that four of the nine SP candidates are Muslims, while none of the BJP candidates are Muslims, which shows an acceptance of the fact that Muslims are unlikely to vote for the BJP.

In Muslim-dominated Kundarki, which has elected only a Muslim MLA in the last three decades, the BJP has fielded Ramvir Singh Thakur, a Rajput, to let Muslim votes get divided among SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

Ghaziabad is a strong seat for the BJP, having elected a BJP MLA thrice in the last four elections. Here, the BJP has fielded Mayor Sanjeev Sharma, a Brahmin, against a Jatav SP candidate and BSP's Bania candidate.

The BJP looks to win for the third consecutive time in Aligarh's Khair by giving a ticket to Surendra Diler, the son of former Hathras MP, the late Rajvir Singh Diler. Surendra might get sympathy votes.

Karhal is the seat vacated by SP national president Akhilesh Yadav. Here, the SP has fielded Akhilesh's nephew, Tej Pratap Yadav, while the BJP has fielded Anujesh Yadav, a distant relative of Yadav's, making it a contest within the Mainpuri family.

Former MLA Deepak Patel has been fielded in Phulpur, which will help the BJP get Kurmi votes, which saw an attrition from the BJP in the last two elections. Patel is the son of former Phulpur MP Keshari Devi Patel.

In Katehari of Ambedkar Nagar, the BJP has fielded former BSP MLA Dharam Raj Nishad, who was elected three times consecutively from here. He can help the BJP get Nishad, Dalit, and Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) votes.

In Majhawan of Mirzapur district, the BJP has fielded former MLA Suchismita Maurya, who had won in 2017. While the seat has a majority population of Nishads and Brahmins, it also has a substantial Maurya population.

In Kanpur's Sisamau, where the SP has fielded the wife of convicted MLA Irfan Solanki, Nassem Solanki, the BJP has fielded Suresh Awasthi, who lost to Solanki in 2017 and then in Arya Nagar in 2022. It will help the party win Brahmin votes, which are in substantial numbers, in the constituency.