Nitish Kumar And BJP: Will They, Won’t They? 

The irrepressible Raghuvansh Prasad Singh of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has recently threatened to beat up the Chief Minister of Bihar Nitish Kumar. The exact words used by Singh were ‘Gardaa chhuda denge’. This drew a sharp reaction from the Janata Dal (United) spokesperson Shyam Rajak, and also a warning from the Deputy Chief Minister of Bihar, Tejashwi Yadav.

However, the verbal exchange only serves to underscore the increasing bad blood between the two major partners of the Mahagathbandhan that rules Bihar today (The Congress party being the proverbial third wheel).

The ostensible trigger for Singh’s outburst was the Uttar Pradesh election result. He accused Nitish Kumar of helping the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by desisting from contesting even selected seats in the districts dominated by the latter’s ‘Kurmi’ caste during this year's Vidhan Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh.

It is apparent from a scrutiny of the recent political reportage from Bihar that there is an increasing disquiet within the ranks of the RJD over the Bihar Chief Minister’s growing closeness to the BJP and Narendra Modi. There were also reports that Lalu Prasad Yadav was feeling slighted at having not been seated on the dais during an official function while the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister of Bihar, not only shared the dais but also were all praises for each other.

Kumar’s criticism of ‘demonetisation’ has also been characteristically equivocal while Sushil Modi has taken to exhorting the incumbent Chief Minister to quit the Mahagathbandhan and form an alliance with the BJP instead.

There can be absolutely no doubt that Nitish Kumar is weighing his options very seriously. I have stated here earlier that a three to four per cent swing in favour of the NDA vis-a-vis the Vidhan Sabha election in 2015 has the potential to bring the Mahagathbandhan to its knees. This is something that the Bihar Chief Minister is cognisant of.

Furthermore, there is a small chunk of voters who might vote for the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls at any rate especially if they realise that Nitish Kumar has no chance of becoming the prime minister given the increasingly presidential nature of our general elections.

It makes ample sense for him to ditch the RJD and ally with a BJP that is unlikely to challenge him much given the latter’s significantly reduced strength in the state assembly. The Uttar Pradesh results have underscored the fact that Narendra Modi remains by some distance the most popular leader in the country and hence, most likely to be the Prime Minister after the 2019 general election as well.

At the same time, the biggest drawback as far as the BJP is concerned is that despite its best efforts it has been unable to make a significant push into the southern and eastern regions of the country-two areas where it has traditionally been comparatively weak.

There is also little scope for improvement in the Hindi heartland and western India where its performance peaked in 2014. There is a good chance that the Saffron Party will score big in the North East. At the same time, we must also keep in mind that the entire region sends just about 24 members of Parliament to the Lok Sabha. On top of that, there is a significant level of anti-incumbency against a few BJP governments including those of Rajasthan and Haryana at the state level which is likely to end up hurting the BJP in the general election as well.

In this view of the matter, as on date, despite the BJP’s spectacular show in Uttar Pradesh that has also generated a lot of positive momentum for the BJP going towards 2019, there is a good possibility that the BJP on its own might just fall ever so slightly short of the majority mark. It is here that Nitish Kumar feels that the BJP needs him.

A solid regional satrap like him putting his weight behind the BJP might lead to a domino effect and others like K Chandrashekhar Rao from Telangana or Naveen Patnaik from the Biju Janata Dal might also end up supporting the BJP, thereby scotching the possibility of a nationwide Mahagathbandhan- a prospect that the ruling party dreads.

Hence, if one were to game the scenario from Nitish's perspective, it makes ample sense for himself and the BJP to come together.

For the BJP also it makes some sense to make cautious overtures towards Kumar. The Bihar Chief Minister has occupied this post almost continuously for the past twelve years now. It is also amply clear that given the fact that his son has exhibited no interest or aptitude for politics unlike Lalu’s sons, there is little scope for a succession plan and the BJP has little reason to be wary of him in the medium to long run.

At the age of 70, Nitish is growing by the day, and since he has been occupying the same chair for more than two terms, there is not much left for him to achieve as the Chief Minister of Bihar.

The only scenario in which a gathbandhan between the BJP and the JDU could work is if Nitish were to acknowledge the increased relevance of the BJP at the state level by according to it a greater share of the 40 seats on offer at the state level while accepting a senior ministerial position in the central government.

A shrewd operator like Kumar is also entirely aware of the fact that the Congress party and the other players in a possible Mahagathbandhan are unlikely to back him to be the Prime Minister, even assuming that it manages to best the BJP. In this view of the matter, increasing closeness between the BJP and Kumar makes sound political sense. Whether or not this is good for the BJP’s prospects in Bihar in the long run, is a different matter altogether.