Plan For 2016? Here Are 16 Things The Modi Government Should Pursue In The Next Year
If a five year government tenure in India were a One Day International (ODI) cricket game, and the government were the team batting first, the Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government has just completed the 15 overs mark.
In an era where we usually see aggressive batting in the opening overs, the Modi government has adopted a more conservative style of governance, as most Swarajya writers agreed in their one year reviews of the government.
This is akin to the batting style of the ODIs in late 1990s, when a score of 275-300 would win the batting team more games than not. In that sense, the government is around 75 for the loss of a couple of wickets – perception and media management hiccups. This is neither spectacular nor overly worrying. A comfortable score, which in Indian politics is 273 is still achievable, but of course with no front loading, the government has to be on the ball through the remaining three and half years. In that sense, the year 2016 stands for the ODI equivalent of 15 to 25 overs, the classic consolidation patch, where the base has to become very strong to go hammer and tongs late in the tenure.
The pitch still has no real demons, and the best batsmen are very much at the crease for the government. However, the depth in the batting order is not exemplary with limited performing ministerial talent, and more than a few odd balls are keeping low in the form of newspaper op-eds and television prime time assaults. The government has to work on specific ideas in 2016 while ensuring that all well performing ministers continue to stay happy within the realm of party politics and are firmly behind the Prime Minister. Here are 16 things which the Modi government should aim to achieve in 2016.
Political Ambitions
1. Electoral Momentum
The BJP has suffered two electoral reverses in 2015 in Delhi and Bihar. Both the results have been spectacularly hopeless for the BJP with the party organization torn asunder. 2016 is a year of relative electoral calm for BJP as the party is not a key player in the West Bengal, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu state elections coming up in the year. While it will hope to make small dents in all these states, the party can go all out in Assam, which is the only state where it can potentially win. If BJP can wrest Assam from a Congress led Bihar style mahagathbandhan, the party morale will be at a high going into the 2017 electoral cycle.
2. Isolate Congress
While the central government may have its hands tied in terms of acting against the higher echelons of Congress on corruption front, the party needs to encourage NDA state governments to pursue corruption cases where possible with renewed vigour. BJP needs to paint Congress in a corner on graft and irregularities. Haryana, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra governments definitely have a chance to make an impact here.
3. Alliance Management
Despite its acrimonious battle with Congress, the BJP still continues to be on relatively good terms with most strong regional parties. Some of them are not likely to surrender their state level supremacy anytime soon. While BJP can quietly continue its eastern and southern expansion plans, it is important to actively wean away parties like All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu, Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) in Telangana, and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha from any potential national level alliance backed by Congress. BJP should also evaluate its alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab, which can be a liability for the 2017 state election.
4. Uttar Pradesh (UP) Supremacy
Whoever wins Uttar Pradesh wins India. This political aphorism has stood the test of time in Indian politics. The BJP won 73 seats in UP in 2014 Lok Sabha elections, which will be all but impossible to repeat in 2019 even with another Modi wave. But the state still has to be won and won handsomely. The first step towards that journey will be winning the 2017 UP assembly elections. The party should learn from the win in Maharashtra, and the loss in Bihar, and go with a Chief Minister candidate. The appointment should ideally take place in 2016 so that there is enough time to rejuvenate the cadre in the state and deal with severe anti-incumbency against the non performing MPs.
Economic Reset
5. Goods and Services Tax Rollout
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has time and again asserted that the tax, technology, and the process infrastructure required for rolling out the GST on April 1st, 2016 will be in place. The government should still make an attempt in the Budget 2016 session to get the bill passed. This will be seen as a big reform boost. The GST itself will make services costlier and the goods cheaper. But while the former will happen immediately, the latter will take time – about two years for input efficiencies to kick in and effect of tax redundancies elimination to show up. Consequently, the retail prices will see a jump at the time of implementation. So, rolling out GST in 2017 or beyond could be an act of political suicide.
6. Implement Bankruptcy Code
The government has already moved ahead on this reform aiming to introduce the enabling bill as money bill, thus bypassing the Rajya Sabha approval process. However, the government legal eagles need to ensure there will be no court challenges to this approach.
7. Extend Raghuram Rajan Term
The Modi government has been pilloried – mostly unfairly – on degradation of enabling democratic institutions under its watch. One way to disprove the critics and send a strong message to the investor community would be to extend the term of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan. His term currently ends in September 2016 and at least in the last couple of quarters, there has been reasonable bonhomie between the RBI and the Finance Ministry. In the backdrop of these improved relations, a term extension will be a shot in the arm for the economic sentiment.
8. Strengthen Catalyst Bodies
The government has announced or constituted important institutions to fast track policy making and managing government finances. These institutions are still in infancy and should fully bloom in 2016. NITI Aayog, National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) and Public Debt Management Office (PDMO) can serve as three important pillars for managing government investments, policy making and union-state coordination, and fiscal prudence. Additionally, the government can also fast track the recommendations of Expenditure Management Commission to ensure adequate cost controls are institutionalized for continued current account deficit (CAD) management.
Governance Delivery
9. Agrarian Focus
Given the two poor monsoons since the Modi government took over, the agrarian economy has been under severe pressure. Rural inflation has been consistently higher than the urban one, food and vegetable prices (some commodities) have been sky high, and the rural consumption has been completely flat. This situation cannot be allowed to persist for too long. While the dependence on monsoons cannot be wished away, the government needs to push a single national agricultural market, soil health cards and crop insurance programs at the highest priority. It will make tremendous sense for the PMO to directly monitor some of these programs on a fortnightly basis until the next monsoon cycle.
10. Visible Infrastructure Push
Given the high capital expenditure and government investments in the financial year 2015-16, several new road, rail, power, shipping, and defense projects will take tangible shape in the next year. The government needs to be seen informing the country about these projects which make economic difference, and should also appropriate the credit for implementation. Protocols involving state and local government bodies may necessitate involving other party functionaries in inaugurations and dedications, but there should be a strong BJP presence for everything significant being unveiled.
11. Social Reforms
In the first 19 months, the Modi government has been working mainly on economy and foreign affairs. It is important to initiate flagship reforms in other areas with high priority for police, education and healthcare. These areas have moved relatively slowly under PM Modi, but they touch upon day to day life and drive citizen – government interface and engagement. The government cannot ignore these key areas in the run up to the next electoral cycle.
12. Institutionalized Central Government Schemes
Since May 2014, the government has launched several important programs on social security, financial inclusion, skills development and governance improvement. The party should give every MP an explicit target of 100% constituency awareness and / or coverage for these programs – Jan Dhan Yojana, Atal Pension Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana, Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana, Swachh Bharat, Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana, #iLEDtheWay and MUDRA loans being the top priority.
Communication and Narrative Building
13. Win Digital
BJP tasted the 2014 electoral success on the back of big Digital push. The party charted new territories in terms of voter engagement, feedback loops, and marketing messages. That edge has disappeared over 2015. If digital was important in 2014, it will be indispensable in 2019. Urban elections like the one AAP won in Delhi in 2015 can be entirely swayed over mobiles and Internet in 2019. BJP has to reinvigorate its National Digital Operating Center (NDOC) type command centre to stay ahead on the curve. Though there are signs after the Bihar drubbing that the party is again getting its act together, this should an area of improvement for the party – the government itself seems to be doing fine – on this count.
14. Media Briefings
Over the year 2015, there were not less than a couple of dozen incidents where sections of media misstated or misquoted government officials or BJP functionaries. Every such incident resulted in the media piling on to the government and the party opening gaping perception holes.
Every such incident also led to social media battles and hashtag hysteria. If the government as well as the party can institute a simple media briefing process, some of these situations can be avoided. Many western governments have a daily press briefing and the same system can be easily replicated. These briefings can also be put out on the internet thus ensuring content availability independent of daily news cycles. It is a moot point whether Hanlon’s Razor applies to the media – BJP relations. The party cannot afford to fight pointless daily battles and cannot be seen as perennially negaholic.
15. Dissidence Control
While there is no credible challenge to PM Modi himself, the infighting and dissidence within the party has grown in the second half of 2015. L’affaire Shatrughan Sinha and Kirti Azad may not result in any electoral losses, but these cases suck a lot of management bandwidth in ensuring damage control.
The shrill noises against the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will only continue to rise unless the PM intervenes and stops the backstabbing explicitly. If these battles aren’t nipped in the bud, precious time will be lost in dousing fires. BJP cannot afford to let the tail wag the dog in a crucial year. A consistent policy needs to be devised and implemented to deal with the party dissidents.
16. Anti Anti-Intellectualism
The BJP attracted supporters from a broad range of professional disciplines in the run up to 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Despite this talent pool, the party has not been able to dispel the favorite complaint of its core support base – that it does not invest time, energy and money in pure intellectual pursuits.
Be it driving a cultural or a historical narrative, or course correcting legislation or giving direction to research bodies, the party has failed to establish a credible intellectual command in the last 18 months. This is no different from 1996, 1997, or 1999 – the previous occasions when BJP won power at the Centre. The need to shed the anti-intellectual tag was always important – now it has become urgent too. Across sciences and arts, there is no dearth of individuals who can help create a narrative which can help the government and the party, but the efforts won’t fall in place without a central sponsorship.
PM Modi needs to play his natural game while keeping the governance scoreboard ticking. If the government retreats in a shell – as it did in the second quarter of 2015, there will be a sense of drift and unease. It is important to not leave too much for the end part of the NDA innings, and 2016 is the ideal time to create a launch pad for the slog overs. Playing too cautiously or losing wickets to rash shots is a sure disaster recipe in ODIs. Now is the time for the government to choose calmness over flamboyance, and doughtiness over flair.