Shiromani Akali Dal Sits Out Punjab Bypolls — How BJP Stands To Gain

Soon after Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) announced its decision not to contest the Punjab bypolls for four assembly seats, a prominent party leader joined the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on 24 October.

Sardar Sohan Singh Thandal was a minister in the Punjab government when former SAD president, late Parkash Singh Badal, was chief minister of the state.

Thandal is a four-time member of the legislative assembly (MLA), three times from Mahilpur, and, after this constituency was dissolved in the 2008 delimitation, he was elected from Chhabewal in 2012.

However, he lost in Chhabewal twice, in 2017 and 2022, to Congress' Dr Raj Kumar Chhabewal, who again defeated Thandal in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in Hoshiarpur and became a member of parliament (MP).

The BJP has now fielded Thandal in the Chhabewal assembly constituency. Similarly, the party has fielded two other former SAD leaders and a former Congress leader in three other assembly seats.

Sardar Ravikaran Kahlon, who lost to Congress' Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa in the 2022 assembly election on a SAD ticket, is now fielded by the BJP in Dera Baba Nanak.

Another former Punjab minister, who served both in SAD and Congress governments, Manpreet Singh Badal, has been fielded by the BJP in Gidderbaha, which he represented from 1995 to 2012.

In 2017, Badal was elected on a Congress ticket from Bathinda Urban, but here he lost to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in 2022. He then joined the BJP in 2023.

The fourth BJP candidate is a former Congress leader. Sardar Kewal Singh Dhillon won the assembly election from Barnala twice, in 2007 and 2012, on a Congress ticket but then lost to AAP in 2017.

After he was denied a ticket in 2022, he joined the BJP. He then contested the 2022 byelection for the Sangrur parliamentary seat, which was vacated by Bhagwant Mann but came in fourth.

Since SAD is not contesting because the party president Sukhbir Singh Badal did not get temporary relief from the Akal Takht over religious misconduct, its vote bank can shift to the BJP.

With SAD not contesting, the BJP might get those votes, especially when it has fielded three former SAD leaders who might have their support base in the SAD vote bank.

Another reason the BJP might get those votes is that SAD and Congress have always been opposed to each other, making it unlikely that SAD votes will shift to the Congress.

Similarly, since AAP is in power in Punjab, it is facing an anti-incumbency for not fulfilling the promises; so, SAD votes, instead of going to incumbent AAP, are likely to go to the opposition, the BJP.

However, SAD vote share has been on a decline since the party broke the alliance with the BJP. The party could get only 13.42 per cent votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha election and 18.38 per cent votes in the 2022 assembly election.

On the contrary, the BJP's votes are increasing. The BJP got 18.56 per cent votes in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, up from 6.6 per cent votes in the 2022 assembly election. The combined Lok Sabha votes of SAD and BJP are enough to secure victory in a three-cornered fight.

Another notable thing is that the seats where the BJP has fielded former SAD leaders are in rural areas, where the BJP is relatively weaker and, hence, it will need the support of SAD voters.

Only the Barnala seat is urban, where the BJP has fielded the former Congress leader. The seat was vacated by two-time AAP MLA Gurmeet Singh Meet Hayer after winning the Lok Sabha election from Sangrur.

Thus, with SAD's former leaders and their supporters, the BJP might have a real chance of winning one or two seats. In Barnala, the BJP candidate is stronger than the AAP and Congress candidates.

While it is true that the BJP's Punjab unit is made of leaders imported from other parties, including its president, Sunil Jhakhar, a former Congress leader, the strategy seems to be working for the party as its vote share has increased.

If SAD indeed leaves the political space due to its infighting and instability over the Panthic loyalty issue, the BJP is much better placed than AAP and Congress to benefit from it.