The Gloves Are Off: Why Modi Cannot Ignore His Hindu-Hindutva Base Voter

One should have seen this coming when, the other day, Narendra Modi likened the Congress 2024 election manifesto to something that could have been drafted by the Muslim League.

Yesterday (21 April), he upped the ante and suggested that the Congress’ wealth redistribution plan will end up benefiting only minorities and illegal migrants.

Speaking at election rallies in Rajasthan, Modi, says a Times of India report, had this to say: “Just look at their manifesto. What they have said is of grave concern and reflects their plan to implement their Maoist vision on the ground. They have said that if Congress gets to form the government, they would conduct a survey of everyone’s assets: how much gold our mothers and sisters have and their value would be computed, including the silver ornaments of our tribal sisters, the assets of government employees, everything. They don’t stop at that. They go on to say that the assets will be equitably redistributed. Is it acceptable to you? Does the government have the right to expropriate your hard-earned assets?”

He went on to link Manmohan Singh’s 2006 statement, that the minorities, especially Muslims, have the first right to the state’s resources, to the latest manifesto and concluded that this wealth distribution will benefit only those who produce more children and “infiltrators”.

Modi’s colourful extrapolation from the Congress party’s manifesto may be a bit too colourful, for the manifesto says only two things about wealth inequality and obtaining information on one’s assets.

After talking about growing inequality in India, the manifesto blandly says: “We will address the growing inequality of wealth and income through suitable changes in policies.”

However, in the very first section titled Equity, the Congress manifesto says upfront: “Congress will conduct a nation-wide Socio-Economic and Caste Census to enumerate the castes and sub-castes and their socio-economic conditions. Based on the data, we will strengthen the agenda for affirmative action.”

Knowing anyone’s socio-economic status will call for obtaining information on what each family owns in terms of assets. Modi just put two and two together and made 22, just as the Congress, using the BJP’s 400-paar slogan, is now claiming that the Constitution will be amended to make it less secular and move us towards a dictatorship.

As always, Rahul Gandhi could be relied upon to provide the opening for Modi to attack. Speaking on 7 April in Hyderabad, Gandhi apparently said that the INDI Alliance, if voted to power, would organise an institutional survey to figure out who owns how much wealth and then seek to redistribute the same (read this report). 

The question is, why did the Prime Minister bring up the question of an intrusive survey on private assets and link it to assumed benefits to Muslims now?

In every state where this formula has worked, the BJP finds it difficult to make gains. If in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar the alliance is between Yadavs and Muslims, in Tamil Nadu it is between the minorities and the non-Brahmin castes. 

In 2024, it is more than obvious that the Muslim vote will consolidate fully behind the INDI Alliance, and the caste census is meant to divide the Hindu vote. The BJP cannot hope to win easily if this happens.

The BJP’s success over the last 10 years since 2014 has been to consolidate the votes of the smaller Hindu castes, and use welfarist policies to target the non-minority vote, especially among women.

Perhaps there is the larger realisation that ultimately a good economic record alone is not enough to give the BJP the ultimate edge in 2024. Hence the need to remind Hindu voters what is at stake. The fear of asset surveys will worry every middle class Hindu. 

The BJP, despite the need to appear inclusive, has to understand one reality. The minorities, especially Muslims, will not accept its bonafides any time in the near future.

It should, therefore, not make the mistake of taking its Hindu-Hindutva base for granted. His speech in Rajasthan may draw condemnation from the “secular-Left-Liberal” lobby, but it is a signal to his base that they are important.

However, the party needs to think beyond just the Ram Mandir and focus strongly on delivering equal rights for Hindus as its main plank. Its growth and consolidation of power depends on the Hindu vote, even if some of this Hindu vote seeks welfarist policies at the bottom end of the pyramid.

My 2018 article in Swarajya deals with this issue of the BJP’s ideological confusion at some length. The BJP cannot become a “secular” party if it is to succeed over the long term. As a Hindu party, it is real; as a “secular” party, it will be a phoney. There are better parties to market the shop-soiled idea of secularism to gullible masses.

In Rajasthan, Modi showed that he understands what is at stake. He has taken the gloves off to reassure his Hindu base. One can only hope that it is not merely an election-eve concession to them.