The Likely Outcome In Tripura: BJP The Single-Largest Party; Successful Debut Of Tipra Motha

Will the Bharatiya Janata Party get another term in Tripura? There is a high probability that they will have the largest share of seats in the 2023 polls. However, there are concerns if they will get the majority in the 60-seat Assembly. 

The alternate is a hung assembly with the BJP and its ally, the IPFT forming one front; a coalition of former arch-rivals, the Indian National Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) on the second; and, the 2021-born Tipra Motha Party (TPM) being the third group. 

Either way, it's more than certain that Motha will have huge leveraging power after this election. They might either be the king or the kingmaker in a hung assembly. And, if BJP gets the majority, TPM will be the principal opposition. 

This means, the political landscape in Tripura is finally aligning with the rest of the northeast region, where the ‘indigenous population’ rule the roost. The Bengali-majority-dominated mainstream should do well to remember that. 

Tribal Assertion 

TPM is demanding a separate state for the 30 per cent indigenous population. The demand, though impractical, is not new. The post-partition influx of Hindu Bengalis marginalised the tribal population in Tripura. 

The uniqueness of Motha lies in unifying the fractured tribal voices, articulated deliberation on gaps between promises and delivery of the past governments and, making a sharp democratic pitch for “our land, our rule”.

Led by the head of the Tripuri royal family, Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma; TPM swept the Tripura Tribal Area Autonomous District Council (ADC) election in 2021. They are now set to dominate the results in 20 tribal seats. 

This has essentially changed the rules of the game in the Tripura election, where ruling parties traditionally got a head start in reserved seats but tribal sentiments and aspirations didn’t get its due regard. 

Left used to treat tribal seats as their preserve. In 2018, the BJP and its coalition partner Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) won 18 of 20 tribal seats. As of 2023, IPFT became toothless before Motha. 

BJP and Congress-CPM coalition, therefore, have to jostle for space in barely 40 seats including 10 seats reserved for the scheduled castes. This is too narrow a space for anyone’s comfort.

The past governments, both in the Centre and the State have to share the blame for it. The Left particularly owes an apology for trivializing tribal sentiments during their 35-year (1978-1988, 1993-2018) rule. 

Historic Neglect

In 1993, the Dasarath Deb-led Left Front government signed a peace agreement with the militia group All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF). Deb was in power during 1993-1998. He was the only tribal Chief Minister in Tripura.  

The agreement promised to set up a ‘Bhasha commission’ for the improvement of the indigenous Kok Borak language. Kok Borak doesn’t have a script of its own. The local ruling class pushes Bengali script, but tribals want to use roman for practical benefit. 

Manik Sarkar government (1998-2018) formed an expert committee in 2004 headed by linguist Pabitra Sarkar. The committee in its report in 2005, nodded in favour of the roman script.  

The report was never adopted, presumably to please the Bengalis. The BJP government too failed to take a stand on the issue. Kok Borak remained an unresolved puzzle. 

The tribals are extremely sensitive to the royal heritage. The royal palace in Agartala was acquired by the state to house the Assembly during the heydays of nationalisation in the early 1970s. The 1993 peace accord promised its restoration. 

The Assembly was shifted in 2011. However, no serious effort was made by CPI(M) to improve the optics. By the time Marxists were dethroned, Tripura was dotted with Karl Marx Bhavans and half-busts of Lenin. Tribal heroes didn’t have much space. 

BJP's rise to power coincided with IPFT’s call for Tipraland. Similar to Tipra Motha, IPFT demanded the ADC areas be converted into a tribal state. 

The demand is practical for two reasons: First, the ADC is not a contiguous area. There is also a significant tribal population outside the ADC area. Second, curving out a tinier strip of land from a tiny state will make no economic sense. 

However, the marginalisation of tribals by Bengalis is a fact. According to a finding by the Northeast Centre for Policy Dialogue, the number of 100 percent tribal villages was down from 123 to 22 between 2001 and 2011. 

If Tripura is poor, tribals are poorer. During the 2018 election, BJP promised to identify the gaps through an expert report on the socio-economic status of tribals. The report could have been handy for development planning. 

According to media reports, the Biplab Kumar Deb government (2018-2022) of BJP set the terms of reference for the ‘Modality Committee,’ proposed to be formed by the Centre, in July 2018. 

The committee was formed. They made some trips to Tripura as well. But the report is still awaited. Deb was replaced in May 2022. The new Chief Minister Manik Saha promised to make it happen if BJP is re-elected. 

More than the alleged failures, it is the over-promising that hurts BJP’s prospects the most. In 2018, BJP made an election promise to grant ‘State Council’ status to the ADC. 

No one had an idea about its feasibility. The promise was made without any blueprint and there were differences within the state BJP about it. The proposal was spiked by the central government post-election and for valid reasons. 

Uncertain Future

Over-promise in the 2018 election, poor optics of the Biplab Deb government and delay by the central leadership of BJP in removing him, should cost BJP some Bengali votes this election. 

Over 10,000 government school teachers lost jobs in Tripura due to serious irregularities (read corruption) in appointment during Left rule. The number is too big for a state of 35 lakh people. The case was sealed before BJP came to power. Now BJP is facing the music for promising jobs to axed teachers. 

The Left-rule was accused of favouritism. Allegations were rife that public goods were distributed only to loyal supporters. It was incumbent on all to pay the levy in various forms. Government employees, small traders etc., were forced to take part in rallies. 

In comparison, the BJP rule was free and fair. The ‘chanda’ (levy) and michhil (rally) culture is gone. The state made huge progress in implementing centrally sponsored social infrastructure projects like Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, without any controversy. 

Most importantly, the central government is on a physical infrastructure-building rush in the state. With an array of highways under construction, the age-old connectivity issue is settled forever. 

More importantly, the road-cum-rail terminal at Sabroom will convert Tripura into a regional gateway to Chittagong port. The terminal will be opened in the next few months. 

It is a pity that despite such rapid changes, the state BJP is waiting for the 2 March results with a lot of trepidation. The blame should go to the Biplab Deb government, which was thick into controversies from the word go. 

Three or four chief secretaries in four years. Revolt within the party and the cabinet. Easing out of a performing and popular health minister, Sudip Roy Barman, who is now working overtime for Congress. The list is endless. 

Having said that it is unclear how the CPI(M)-Congress coalition will work on the ground. Like West Bengal, Tripura too lived in the CPI(M)-Congress binary for a long time. 

A similar coalition between the two didn't work in the 2016 West Bengal election. Grassroot supporters of primarily Congress didn’t transfer votes to their one-time tormentor, CPI(M).