Uttar Pradesh Bypolls: A Seat-By-Seat Breakdown Of Each Party's Strategy And Chances

This is a translated and edited excerpt from a longer conversation on the What This Means podcast with political commentator Amit Yadav, on the Uttar Pradesh bypolls. To listen to the full episode on Spotify, click here, and for the app, click here.

Congress' Absence

The setback in Haryana has put the Congress at backfoot in Uttar Pradesh bypolls because they lost their negotiation power with their INDI alliance partner, the Samajwadi Party (SP).

Initially, Congress had demanded five seats of the 10 bypoll seats in UP (now bypolls are happening only on nine seats, leaving Milkipur seat). However, with the Haryana Vidhan Sabha election setback, they were in no position to push for more seats, and while five seats were with the SP previously, the Congress had none of the 10 seats going for bypolls.

Secondly, the SP offered them only two seats.

Congress leaders had already started organising public meetings in the Phulpur seat. But post the Haryana defeat, it became clear that they would not be able to get more seats.

The Nine Bypoll Seats Analysis

1. Katehari (Ambedkar Nagar): This seat was with SP, but it had only won this seat with a very thin margin of votes (7,696).

Last time, the BJP and BSP had fielded a candidate from the Brahmin community each (this would have caused the community votes to split between the two parties). This time the BJP has fielded a candidate from the backward community: Dharmraj Nishad, a three-time MLA and a former minister in the UP government.

Whereas the SP has fielded a Kurmi candidate, the wife of Lok Sabha MP Lalji Verma. This can give the impression on the ground that all leaders are coming from just one family. The BSP has also fielded a candidate from the Kurmi community.

So the BJP can win this seat considering they will also be able to get the votes from the Brahmin and Dalit communities.

2. Phulpur (Prajyagraj): The BJP had won this seat previously with a margin of just 2,732 votes. This seat has high number of Muslim, Yadav, and Kurmi voters. In the Lok Sabha elections, Kurmi votes had shifted to the SP. The BJP had not fielded a Kurmi candidate.

The SP has fielded a Muslim candidate here, Mujtaba Siddiqui, a three time ex-MLA on a BSP ticket. He joined the SP in 2022 ahead of state elections, but lost to BJP's Praveen Patel on this seat. 

This seat will witness a close contest. Though the BJP has an edge on this seat, anything can happen here.

3. Majhawan (Mirzapur): Here SP has fielded a candidate from the Nishad community, and the BJP has gone with its ex-MLA Suchismita Maurya. Though the SP has played it smart by fielding a candidate from a backward community, since the seat was with the NDA, which anyway has a good hold over the seat, it is likely that the BJP will win here.

The BSP has fielded a Brahmin candidate here. The community enjoys a majority here.

On this seat, the SP has an edge and will most likely will win, unless a high division of Muslim votes occurs between the various parties.

5. Ghaziabad (Ghaziabad): This seat was with the BJP. And BJP has an edge here. However, the SP is trying experiment here by fielding a Jatav candidate (similar to what they had done in the Lok Sabha in Ayodhya). 

This experiment may not necessarily win them the seat, but could earn the trust of the Jatav-Dalit community ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.

And since the BJP has gone with a Brahmin candidate here, the BSP has fielded a Baniya candidate. The BSP also had a Baniya MLA, Suresh Bansal, from this seat earlier.

6. Khair (Aligarh): It's a reserved seat for the Scheduled Caste community candidates. This seat was with the BJP, and again, the BJP has an edge and is likely to win this seat.

But the SP has also fielded a good candidate from the caste equation point of view. They have fielded Charu Kain, who comes from the Jatav community, and her husband is from the Jat community. The demography here has a significant Jat population as well.

7. Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar): This seat was won by the RLD in the 2022 state assembly elections, which they fought in alliance with the SP. Now RLD is with the BJP.

The Muslim, Jat, and Gujjar communities dominate this seat, of which the Muslim population is the highest. 

While the BSP, SP and ASP have gone with a Muslim candidate here, the RLD (of the NDA) has gone with a Extremely Backward Class (EBC) candidate, Mithilesh Pal, considering they will already have the support of Jats and Gujjars. The MP from here is already a Gujjar from the ruling alliance.

On this seat, the NDA has an edge.

8. Karhal (Mainpuri): This was SP chief Akhilesh Yadav's seat. It is a Yadav-dominant seat, and the SP has an edge here.

9. Sisamau (Kanpur Nagar): It is a Muslim-dominant seat. The seat was with the SP previously, and it will most likely retain it.

But, if the Muslim voter turnout is low, then BJP has a chance of winning this seat.

Key Takeaways

--The SP, BJP, and BSP have taken the caste equation into consideration for ticket distribution. On most seats, the core strategy of the three parties is the same. SP (considering it has the support of Muslims and Yadavs) has fielded OBC and Dalit candidates; BSP (considering it has the support of Dalits) has fielded Brahmin, Baniya, Muslim, Kurmi candidates; and the BJP/NDA (considering it has support of 'upper castes') has fielded Dalit, OBC candidates.

--Like in Haryana assembly elections, in UP too, the BJP needs to follow the same strategy of keeping the elections local and contesting it without getting ahead of the ground narrative.