What If The Modi Sarkar Fell Tomorrow?

Which policy initiative of Modi would be the most difficult to reverse?

Assume for a moment, that by some incredible turns of fate and events, Narendra Modi and his government are out of power tomorrow. A Congress-Nitish-Mulayam-Mamata-everybody alliance comes in their place and is, of course, opposed to most of Modi’s policies. They immediately set about reversing them. Now, in this process, which policy measure, or measures, of Modi, would they find the most difficult to reverse?

Before you start thinking of an answer to that, here are a few simple rules of the game. The policy must be an original Modi idea, and not a continuation of the policies of previous governments. And, the policy must not be restricted to a single ministry.

At first sight, the above question seems to have no value except as an intellectual indulgence. However, it is of help when it comes to analysing Prime Minister Modi’s first year in office.

Modi’s election as PM is regarded amongst the most important events in the history of independent India. One way to judge the importance of an event is to see how far it turns a society or a state or a nation away from the course it was on. Thus, the above ‘thought experiment’, so to speak, is another way of asking, “how far, if at all, has PM Modi been able to take the country on the path of his choice from the one it was previously on? ”. Essentially, what we are trying to determine here is that in his one year in office, how far has the Prime Minister been able to implement his unique vision of India, on India.

Now that that is established, we get back to our game. So, which policy initiative of Modi would be the most difficult to reverse? Make in India, Smart Cities Project, Digital India, Jan Dhan Yojana, Swacch Bharat, or, a pro-active and pre-emptive foreign policy?

Make in India and the Smart Cities are out right away. The new government in our game wouldn’t find it too hard to stall, and then shelve, these two initiatives. This would be because neither of them are near implementation as of now. While much has been written and said about ‘Make in India’, a definite, stage-wise plan for it is, to the best of my knowledge, yet to be released. The Smart Cities Project, on its part, has issues of clarity over division of responsibility. Which task of smart-city building will be under the centre and which under the state has not been explicitly stated. This should be enough for the new government to ask for a ‘review‘ of these projects. And we all know how sarkari reviews go. Besides, in the idyllic, medieval-era image of India which most Congress leaders share , it is hard to see a place for industrial and urban initiatives of the scale of ‘Make in India’ and the Smart Cities Project.

Next, Digital India. Remember Vajpayee’s special focus on highways and the UPA’s successive neglect of them? Digital India would meet the same fate in the scenario that we have laid out. Also, in as far as Digital India means increasing the density and quality of digital communication in India, it is not as creative and unique an idea as some others of Modi are. So, Digital India is out too.

On to Jan Dhan Yojana. A hypothetical Congress-and-all-others government would welcome the programme and not try to reverse it. If anything, they would only rename after it one of the Nehru-Gandhis. Besides, with respect to it, Prime Minister Modi’s achievement is in ensuring that a staggeringly large number of accounts are opened in a short time and not so much in the envisioning of the policy, per se. Hence, Jan Dhan is crossed out as well.

This article is part of our special series on Modi government’s first anniversary in power.

So we are left with Swacch Bharat and his foreign policy. Regardless of what the Congress says, in their current forms, both the programmes are original Modi-ideas. However, by simply dragging its feet on them, the new government of our game can ensure their abandonment. While the Swacch Bharat Abhiyaan and the current foreign policy are effective Modi initiatives, their efficacy comes from the personal leadership, emphasis and stature of the Prime Minister. Neither of them, have been institutionalised. (to be fair, the state can ensure cleanliness and hygiene only up to a point and no further). That one fact alone, would make it easy for a new government to stall both initiatives.

So is there no answer to the question? Will the Congress-and-everybody alliance find no policy of Modi difficult to reverse? Or worse, has the Modi government done nothing worthwhile, out of its own thinking, in one full year in office?

They have. There is, in my view, one policy measure of the Modi government which would be almost impossible for any government to reverse. This year or in 2019 or whenever.

The NITI Aayog and the devolution of power to the states of the Union.

Some facts which are known to the reader demand being repeated here. The Governing Council of NITI includes CMs of all states and Lieutenant-Governors of all Union Territories. This is completely different from the earlier Planning Commission which had no such avenue for state representation. Secondly, 42% of gross central tax revenue will now go to the states. Even on his China visit, the PM inviteed CMs of three or more states to travel with him. Earlier, when the chief ministers of states met with the prime minister, all central government ministers were seated on a dais. Under Modi’s regime everybody, central minister or chief minister, sits around a table. The change is only about who sits where, but it is symbolic of the importance this government is according to the states.

Thus, the set of policies which lead to an enhanced, and co-operative federalism would be the most difficult to reverse for the new government in our game. Today, after almost a year in power, and after NITI and other measures, co-operative federalism in India is no longer driven by the personal leadership of the PM. It has been institutionalised. The fact that states now have more power and say in the running of the country is now inherent in the workings of the Indian state. Earlier, if ever, such a situation would have been an exception. Today, after a year of Modi sarkar, it’s the norm.

Arguably, no other prime minister since Nehru has deferred as much to the federalism of the Indian Union as Modi has (remember that Nehru wrote fortnightly letters to all chief ministers with an almost religious punctuality; even at the height of the ’62 war, he kept up with the practice). And this is not something which Modi started to believe in after becoming the Prime Minister. Even as Gujarat CM, he was known to advocate for a greater say of states in national policy formulation. In doing so, he recognises a simple truth about the Indian state: the central government has no geography of its own. While policies can of course be formulated in Delhi, if they have to stand any chance of implementation, then the co-operation of states is imperative. No state would co-operate effectively with a programme it sees as against its interest. It is imperative thus, to listen to the states even when planning at an all-India level.

What will happen if the Congress-and-everybody government in our game tries to reverse these policies? One, they are too far ahead in execution to be reversed. More importantly, any attempts to do so would be met with vociferous opposition by the states.

Thus, if the Modi government was to be in power for only a year and never return to government after that, it would be its measures for devolving power to the states which would be its lasting and most profound legacy. Any successive government, voluntarily or otherwise, would have to carry forward this one legacy of Modi’s first year in government.