Bangladesh Unrest: Sheikh Hasina’s Future Seems Uncertain With Army Taking Ambivalent Stand

After another round of fierce clashes on the streets of Dhaka and other cities and towns across Bangladesh that left nearly a hundred, including 14 police officers, dead, all eyes are now on the Bangladesh army. 

With the Awami League government now tethering on the brink, a lot will now depend on which way the army, which had ruled the country for many years in the past, leans. 

Army chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman’s statement on Sunday (4 August) that the “Bangladesh Army is a symbol of people’s trust and the army has always stood by the people and will continue to do so for the sake of the people and the state” is being interpreted as vague. 

A formal statement released by the army late on Sunday evening said that “the army will play its role as mandated by the constitution and laws in ensuring the security of the people and protection of the important state infrastructures”. The army has urged people to comply with the indefinite nationwide curfew that was imposed on late Sunday afternoon. 

But many serving senior officers and retired generals have come out in support of the protestors and have called on the government to send the army and the paramilitary Border Guards Bangladesh (BGB) back to the barracks.

The fact that the army has not come out in complete support for the Awami League government is being interpreted in Dhaka as proof of its ambivalence and intention to intervene and take control of the government. 

There are many officers — serving and retired — in the armed and paramilitary forces of Bangladesh who have strong and covert ties with the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (which was banned by the government last week) and even Pakistan. 

A clutch of senior army veterans led by former army chief Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan addressed a hurriedly-convened press conference in Dhaka on Sunday afternoon asking the government to stop deploying armed and paramilitary forces to quell violence in the country (read this).

The veterans appealed to the army to desist from taking any action against protesters. “The patriotic military must not accept any responsibility for the current situation,” said Bhuiyan. 

Bhuiyan and the other general, including former Chief of Army Staff Lt Gen M Nuruddin Khan said they were “deeply concerned, troubled, and saddened by all the egregious killings, tortures, disappearances, and mass arrests that have been tormenting Bangladesh over the past three weeks”. 

This statement is a strong indication of the veterans’ support for the protests. The Awami League, despite being in power since January 2009, has not been able to cleanse the armed forces, police and bureaucracy of pro-Islamist and pro-Pakistani elements. 

It is these elements who are now covertly siding with the protesters and trying to unseat Sheikh Hasina from power. 

Protests Hijacked By Opposition And Islamists

What started off as protests by students against the earlier 56 per cent quota in government jobs has now been completely taken over by the opposition BNP-Jamaat combine with radical Islamist parties also lending muscle to the protests. 

The students’ protests were initially peaceful, but the Awami League government completely mishandled the situation by deploying the ruling party’s students’ wing — the Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) — and its youth wing (Yubo League) to quell the protests. 

That triggered outrage among the protesters who then intensified the protests. And that led to fierce clashes between pro-government activists and protesters. The police sided with BCL and Yubo League activists and fired on protesters, leading to over 200 deaths.

Sensing a good opportunity to stir resentment against the government, the long-suppressed BNP-Jamaat combine fuelled the protests which ought to have died down after the Supreme Court struck down job reservations from 56 per cent to just 7 per cent. 

Another 10 per cent jobs were reserved for people from backward districts and a similar percentage for women while 5 per cent of government jobs were reserved for minorities and 1 per cent for physically challenged. The total reserved quota was thus 56 per cent. 

The Awami League government had,  a few years ago, abolished the quotas after similar protests by students. But in early-June this year, the High Court restored the earlier quotas, leading to protests from students. 

Instead of quickly siding with the students and moving the Supreme Court to strike down the High Court’s order, the government dilly-dallied. That led to the protests gaining momentum. Sheikh Hasina’s comments suggesting that the protesters were progeny of ‘razakars’ (those who collaborated with Pakistan to sabotage the 1971 liberation war) sparked further outrage. 

The Supreme Court, acting on multiple petitions filed by the government and students’ organisations, struck down the High Court order and reduced the quota to 7 per cent (5 per cent for progeny of freedom fighters and the remaining 2 per cent for minorities and physically challenged). 

That should have calmed the students and led to the protests being withdrawn. But since the movement had been completely taken over by the Opposition parties and Islamists, the protesters came up with fresh demands like resignation of the home minister and the police chief for the deaths of protesters and an apology from Prime Minister Hasina for the deaths of students. 

The government, which ought to have quickly invited the protesting students for discussions and offered conciliatory gestures, did nothing. 

The protests started intensifying after namaz on Friday (August 2) and spun out of control over the weekend. It is believed that Islamist clerics gave the call for an uprising against the government during Friday’s namaz in different mosques across the country. 

Outfits like the Islami Shashontantra Andolan (which advocates Islamic rule according to the sharia in Bangladesh) joined the protests openly since Friday. That is evident from the images of grown-up men wearing skull caps and lungis armed with sticks and choppers out on the streets of Dhaka and other places across the country. 

Monday Is D-Day

Sheikh Hasina’s future, and that of her government, now hangs in balance. 

Everything will now depend on how the armed forces respond to a massive protest in Dhaka on Monday (5 August). 

Protesters have called a ‘March to Dhaka’ on Monday in defiance of the nationwide curfew (read this). The protesters have a "one-point demand’ —resignation of Sheikh Hasina from the Prime Minister’s post. 

The Opposition BNP-Jamaat combine and Islamist parties have announced their support for the march and have warned the police against trying to stop protesters from congregating in Dhaka. 

Even though Dhaka Metropolitan Police Commissioner Habibur Rahman announced that the march will be foiled, the police are now on the backfoot. The deaths of 13 policemen on Sunday has demoralised the force considerably. 

A lot will depend on what stand the army and paramilitary forces take. Even though the army has called upon people to adhere to curfew restrictions, it has not spelt out what troops will do to curfew violators. 

If the army and paramilitary forces allow lakhs of protesters to congregate at Dhaka and lay siege to the country’s capital, Sheikh Hasina will be in a very precarious position and may well have to step down. 

The army will then take the reins of power in Bangladesh.