First Iran, Now Afghanistan — Cash-Strapped Pakistan’s Relationship With Neighbours Is Going From Bad To Worse

Pakistan's relationship with its neighbors is steadily worsening.

Yesterday (18 March), it conducted two airstrikes inside Afghanistan's territory, hitting militant hideouts in what Pakistani officials claim as an "intelligence-based anti-terrorist operation".

The strikes, according to Afghanistan's Taliban regime spokesperson Zabiullah Mujahid, killed eight civilians — five women and three children — in two different locations, Paktia and Khost, both close to the border with Pakistan.

Reacting angrily, Mujahid warned saying, "Pakistan shouldn’t blame Afghanistan for the lack of control, incompetence, and problems in its own territory. Such incidents can have very bad consequences which will not be in Pakistan’s control," following which border guards of both nations exchanged heavy fire.

Pakistan claims that the attacks in Afghanistan were in response to a terrorist attack on Saturday (16 March) conducted by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) supported Hafiz Gul Bahadur group in North Waziristan province that killed seven Pakistani soldiers.

Incidentally, the Hafiz Gul Bahadur group was a government contractor and was part of the 'Good Taliban' before being flushed out in 2014 during Operation Zarb-e-Azb.

Exactly two months ago, on 18 January, Pakistan conducted airstrikes inside Iran's Sistan-Balochistan province, killing seven, in retaliation to Iranian missile and drone strikes on 16 January conducted inside Pakistan's Panjgur district of restive Balochistan province.

These incidents suggest that its relationship with its neighbours is going from bad to worse.

The gamble of backing the Afghan Taliban in 2021 over the Ashraf Ghani-led government has failed to pay off. Despite numerous meetings where Pakistani officials urged the Taliban to cease their support for the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan) and BLA (Baloch Liberation Army) militants, these groups continue to find a safe haven in Afghanistan.

This was made even worse when Pakistan expelled more than 1.7 million (17 lakh) Afghan refugees from its territory. Then came the to-and-fro missile and air strikes with Iran in January. After the strikes, both nations' top leaders met to cool down temperatures.

Aware But Indifferent India

Apart from the usual congratulatory exchange between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, India has given the cold shoulder to Pakistan's newly-selected coalition government.

India has maintained that there will be no talks unless Pakistan stops supporting terrorists and radical Islamist elements in India.

On the domestic front, Pakistan's economy narrowly escaped a default last year, partly due to help from the Chinese, Saudis and the Emiratis, and partly due to a smart move — providing artillery ammunition to Ukraine — as a quid-pro-quo with Western governments, particularly the US, for the release of funds from International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Predictably, after his selection, Sharif indicated the need for another bailout package from the IMF.

Internally, former prime minister Imran Khan and his political party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf, who were made to lose by rigging the election by the Pakistan Army, are increasing the heat on the new government, threatening nationwide protests and shutdowns.

With the focus of the new government on handling its internal issues, ie, Imran Khan, continuous terror attacks and fixing its economy, Pakistan's relationship with its neighbours is unlikely to get better.