Israel Has Humiliated Iran With Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah's Killing — Here's What Is Likely To Happen Next In The Middle East

On Saturday (28 September), Hezbollah — the Iran-backed armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon — confirmed the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, following Israel's announcement that he was killed in a Friday (27 September) airstrike in Beirut.

Nasrallah’s death is a major success for Israel and a significant moment in Middle East history, but the long-term impact remains unclear.

Hezbollah and its Iranian allies have vowed to "continue the holy war against the enemy and in support of Palestine", raising concerns that a broader regional conflict could now be on the horizon. Israel, too, wouldn't go silent after a major success.

Here's what may follow next.

Israel

With Hezbollah's leadership in disarray following the death of its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel may see an opportunity to exploit the instability within the group. The recent chaos in Lebanon, particularly within Hezbollah’s ranks, presents Israel with a chance to weaken the Iran-backed militant organisation further.

Having significantly diminished Hamas's capabilities in the south, Israel now seems poised to shift its focus northward. From southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has been launching rockets and issuing threats of escalation, warning Israel to cease its operations in Gaza following the 7 October massacre of thousands of Jews by Hamas.

Israel appears to be laying the groundwork for a possible invasion of Lebanon, having targeted Hezbollah’s logistics and communications infrastructure over the past 10 days.

In contrast to the 2006 invasion, which saw Israeli forces struggle against Hezbollah, Israel has learned from past mistakes. The 34-day conflict back then, which claimed 121 Israeli soldiers, ended in a stalemate despite heavy losses on both sides.

Now, Israel is battle-hardened from its recent fight with Hamas, equipped with refined intelligence, battle plans, and a strong air defence system.

With these preparations in place, a ground invasion aimed at delivering a decisive blow to Hezbollah seems increasingly likely.

In the coming days, Hezbollah is likely to regroup after the devastating loss of its leader, with a new figure potentially emerging soon. While its war infrastructure has taken a hit, much of it remains operational, and the group may seek to use its remaining capabilities before further damage occurs, making escalation a strong possibility.

Such a move could reinvigorate its ranks and bolster its standing in Lebanon and Iran. It would also help the new leader, whoever it be, to establish his foot. Additionally, it would give the new leader with an opportunity to assert his authority and solidify his role.

Israel's past shows that killing leaders doesn’t always weaken militant groups — Hezbollah grew stronger after the 2008 assassination of its military chief, Imad Mughniyeh.

While Nasrallah's death is a major victory, along with recent strikes on Hezbollah’s infrastructure and leadership, the group is far from finished. 

Over the years, Hezbollah has built an arsenal of around 150,000 rockets and missiles, though its ability to deploy them effectively is now in question, with its leadership decimated and many fighters either killed or injured. However, it's unlikely Hezbollah will remain quiet for long, and a swift response could be expected.

Iran

Iran perceives the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah as a significant humiliation, marking the second severe loss for the Iranian leadership in a few months — Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed in July 2024 during an Israeli attack in Tehran.

In response to Haniyeh's assassination, Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel, but this attack was largely thwarted and served little purpose beyond appeasing domestic supporters. Afterward, Iranian officials quickly de-escalated tensions, with the UN envoy stating that the attacks could be "deemed concluded".

However, the killing of Nasrallah may provoke a much stronger Iranian response. For one, Nasrallah is a more significant figure than Haniyeh. Additionally, with Hamas's power waning, Iran cannot afford to let Hezbollah face a similar fate. A muted response would carry strategic ramifications for Tehran, risking its reputation and potentially undermining its influence in conflicts across the region, including in Yemen.

Iranian leaders, particularly Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have vowed to seek vengeance and announced five days of mourning. This strong emotional and political reaction indicates Iran's intent to escalate. Iran could mobilise its regional proxies for retaliation against Israel.

In the immediate aftermath, Iran is likely to ramp up its military support for Hezbollah, providing it with more advanced weaponry, like precision-guided missiles. With Hezbollah's operational capabilities weakened, Iran might take a more aggressive stance, using its proxy forces to target Israeli interests outside Lebanon.