From MY To BAAP: RJD Under Tejashwi Attempts A Pivot

“Some people say RJD is MY party. RJD is not MY (Muslim-Yadav) party alone. Its base is much bigger and it belongs to people from A to Z. We have to tell them that our party RJD is not only (MY) party but also BAAP party,” Tejashwi Yadav said during his rally in Muzaffarpur, Bihar on 20 February 2024.

The acronym BAAP used by Tejashwi refers to 'Bahujan', 'Agada' (forward), 'Aadhi Aabadi' (women) and poor.

Besides, the allusion to 'MY' and 'BAAP' is also a reference to the Hindi words mai and baap, which mean father and mother.

Timing Is Crucial

Tejashwi’s announcement comes at the time when the future of his party Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is at crossroads. Towards the end of January 2024, Nitish Kumar bailed out his party Janata Dal United (JDU) from the INDI Alliance and the coalition government in Bihar.

The sudden move resulted in forcing Tejashwi Yadav’s resignation from the Deputy Chief Minister post. It also put a dampener on RJD’s strategy for 2024 General and 2025 state elections.

Both RJD and JDU were complementary to each-other’s vote-banks.

Secondly, even as Nitish’s support shifted to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance, Prashant Kishor upped the ante with his Jan Suraaj Yatra.

A drastic change in political equations and a fast-crowding political field, hence, were the immediate challenges before the Tejashwi-led RJD.

The Limits Of MY

According to various estimates, the total population share of Muslims and Yadavs combined in Bihar comes out to be between 30-32 per cent.

Even assuming that all voters of the Muslim and Yadav communities vote for the RJD in Bihar, a 31 per cent vote share is a safe number only in multipolar contests. In a bipolar election, the winning side must cross the 40 per cent mark, at least.

With the Congress vote share declining and with JD(U) out of the alliance, the RJD was practically left to its own means to find the delta vote share needed to secure power.

Tejashwi’s Calculation On BAAP

Amidst these calculations, Tejashwi Yadav decided to launch his 10-day long Jan Vishwas Yatra. Watching how it is unfolding, it appears as a relaunch event of Tejashwi Yadav himself. No other senior RJD leader will accompany Tejashwi on the tour, nor will they appear as guest speakers on the stage.

That is just as well because Tejashwi is looking to fill a vacuum in Bihar politics. Nitish Kumar's credibility is at an all-time low, and BJP has no pan-Bihar, credible face.

Since 2020, Tejashwi has attempted to present himself as an embodiment of change. He has even asked people of Bihar to forget what happened in the past (Jungle Raaj) and start afresh.

Tejashwi also seems aware of the fact that too much emphasis on MY combination has resulted in alienation of other voters in Bihar.

With the Hindutva narrative starting to dilute the caste lines, sticking to MY was always going to be a strategy of diminishing returns.

That is why son of Rabri Devi and Lalu Yadav is now moving from MY to BAAP.