Will Growing Disquiet In Nitish Kumar’s Party Set Off Another Political Churn In Bihar?

The inclusion of the name of Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Tejaswi Yadav in a CBI chargesheet on the land-for-jobs scam in the railways when his father, Lalu Yadav, was the railway minister has triggered considerable disquiet within the Janata Dal (United).

A growing number of JD(U) leaders are asking party chairperson and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to drop Tejaswi Yadav from the cabinet (read this). They are concerned that the continuance of Yadav in the post will tarnish the image of the JD(U). 

“The JD(U), and especially our leader Nitishji, is known for upholding probity in public life and for honesty. We are a principled political party and have always claimed zero tolerance for corruption,” a senior JD(U) leader who is also a cabinet minister told Swarajya. 

But the reason for the growing disquiet within the JD(U), a partner in Bihar’s ruling mahagathbandhan that’s led by Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), isn’t just over Tejaswi Yadav’s continuance in office after being named in the CBI chargesheet. 

The actual reason, say JD(U) insiders, is the political future of many senior and mid-ranking JD(U) leaders. Everyone in the JD(U) knows that Nitish Kumar will retire from state politics soon. 

And that will lead to an aggressive RJD virtually taking over the party (the JD(U). JD(U) leaders believe that after Nitish Kumar vacates the Chief Minister’s chair for Tejaswi Yadav by the end of this year, the RJD will call all the shots in Bihar. 

“The RJD has already started wooing our party workers and grassroots-level functionaries and inducting them into the party (the RJD). We will be left completely at the mercy of the RJD after Nitishji vacates the CM’s post. Our political philosophy and principles are completely at odds with the RJD and we will be very uncomfortable with serving under Tejaswi Yadav or playing second fiddle to the RJD,” said another senior JD(U) minister who is considered to be close to Nitish Kumar. 

A few JD(U) leaders have discussed this issue in private with the Chief Minister.

“Though Nitishji has assured us that things will go on pretty much the way they are now, he wasn’t very convincing. We all know in our hearts that it will be very difficult for us to survive politically by maintaining our distinct identity and principles once Tejaswi Yadav becomes the CM,” said the minister. 

That is why a number of JD(U) leaders are exploring the possibility of charting a political course independent of the RJD. 

These JD(U) leaders feel that it will be much better for them to align with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Some of them have told Nitish Kumar that they were more comfortable as allies of the BJP than they are with the RJD now. 

“Bihar is witnessing a slow return to goonda raj and largescale corruption, thanks to the RJD getting back into the government last year. Things will get only worse when the RJD gets complete control after Nitishji steps down in favour of Tejaswi Yadav. It’ll be difficult for us to remain part of the ruling alliance and survive politically then,” said the JD(U) cabinet minister. 

“We will have to sacrifice all our political principles and our distinct political philosophy once the control of the government goes in the hands of the RJD. Right now, Nitishji is being able to keep a check on the RJD. But that won’t be the case once he steps down,” explained the JD(U) leader. 

A senior JD(U) leader who is in touch with the BJP told Swarajya that when the JD(U) was part of the NDA (till August last year), it did not have to compromise on its principles. 

“We (the BJP and JD-U) shared the same principles of probity, honesty and good governance. But Nitishji felt that the BJP was out to destroy our party and that’s why he broke ties with the BJP and returned to the mahagathbandhan. That decision is slowly turning out to be disastrous for our party. Many of us regret returning to the alliance with the RJD,” said a veteran JD(U) leader who had also served as a cabinet minister earlier. 

But a split in the JD(U), say political observers, seems unlikely for the moment.

“Even the JD(U) leaders who are unhappy with the RJD and are uncomfortable in the mahagathbandhan are keeping quiet because they don’t have the numbers on their side. Not as yet anyway,” said political scientist Raj Kishore Singh. 

Realising this, a number of senior JD(U) leaders are trying to prevail upon Nitish Kumar to move away from the mahagathbandhan. 

Nitish Kumar has also been meeting his party MLAs and MPs in groups and individually over the past few days. 

“He (Nitish Kumar) has been asking us to speak our minds on what we perceive is the political future of the JD(U), our prospects in the parliamentary polls next year and our views on the RJD. We are being asked to collect feedback from the grassroots level on the perception of the masses towards our alliance with the RJD and the performance of the government,” said the veteran JD(U) leader. 

This exercise has set off speculation that Nitish Kumar may be contemplating some bold moves. But Nitish Kumar knows that his return to the NDA is a dim possibility since the BJP top leadership has publicly vowed not to take him back into the NDA fold. 

“Nitish Kumar would not like to see the party he has created breaking up. But he realises that many in the party are unhappy with the RJD and apprehensive of their  political future. He knows he will have to do something concrete to address those concerns and apprehensions,” said political scientist Singh, who used to teach at Patna University. 

A lot is being read into Nitish Kumar’s long meeting with his party Rajya Sabha MP Harivansh Narayan Singh, who is also the deputy chairperson of the Upper House, on Tuesday (4 July) evening. Kumar’s ties with Harivansh had gone sour recently.

Matters reached a flashpoint after Harivansh went against his party’s wishes and attended the inauguration of the new Parliament building by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. 

The JD(U) had joined some major opposition parties in their boycott of the inaugural ceremony. Harivansh had argued that as deputy chairperson of the Rajya Sabha, propriety demanded that he attend the ceremony. 

JD(U) president Lalan Singh had lashed out at Harivansh, reminding him that it was Nitish Kumar who had got him elected to the Rajya Sabha and, hence, Harivansh should respect Kumar’s wishes. 

Though Harivansh’s office described his meeting with Nitish Kumar as a “mere courtesy call” and that the meeting lasted only 15 minutes, JD(U) leaders told Swarajya that the two talked for nearly one hour. 

“Tuesday evening’s meeting suggests that Nitish Kumar is trying to keep channels of communication with the BJP’s top leadership open. Harivansh is known to be on very good terms with some of the top-ranking BJP leaders,” said Raj Kishore Singh. 

However, the current churn is only at a nascent stage and a lot will depend on how Kumar’s efforts to bring together other opposition parties pan out. 

What will also matter the most is the electoral prospects of the ani-BJP opposition front.

“If Nitish Kumar feels that the anti-BJP front’s prospects are not good and if the seat-sharing efforts are not meeting with much success, he may make a move to distance himself and his party from the RJD. Or he may remain as part of the mahagathbandhan and bless a breakaway of a majority of his MLAs and MPs from the party who may then align with the BJP,” said Singh. 

There are still a lot of ifs and buts, and a realignment of political forces in Bihar may not happen right away. 

But what is certain is that Tejaswi Yadav being named in the CBI chargesheet has set off a political churn in Bihar, especially within the JD(U). 

Also read: Bihar’s Ruling Alliance Rocked By CBI Chargesheet Naming Deputy Chief Minister Tejaswi Yadav

People Of Bihar, And Nitish Kumar Himself, Are The Losers In State’s Latest Political Drama

This Is Why Nitish Kumar Could Be Staring At A Sad End To His Political Career

Why The BJP Is Unfazed By Nitish Kumar’s Betrayal And Is Confident Of Having The Last Laugh

As Evidence Piles Up Against RJD Leaders In Land-For-Jobs Scam, Nitish Kumar Will Land In A Tough Spot

Explained: The Land-For-Jobs Scam In Railways During Lalu Yadav’s Tenure And Why It Spells Trouble For The Yadavs