Bangladesh Elections: League Back In Power In Dhaka, But Delhi Faces Competition From Beijing For Leverage

Shiekh Hasina’s Awami League has won another paper election — the third in a row — in Bangladesh. As in the last two terms, the Parliament will be filled with either the Awami League or its friendlies, who won due to active support of the League. 

True, over 60 independents won the contest. Many of them defeated Awami ministers and top party functionaries. But, barring some, the majority of those independents were dummies of the League itself. 

In effect, therefore, there will be little, very little trace of opposition in the Parliament. “Shiekh Hasina will decide who forms the Opposition in the next Parliament,” Awami general secretary Obaidul Quader said. He meant a dummy opposition. 

The low 40 per cent polling is proof that the arch-rival Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) didn’t lack public support. The League however ensured that the BNP remains out of the race, as in 2014. Hundreds of their activists are in jail. 

Polling, although, was kept reasonably free and fair, by Bangladesh standards, to earn some legitimacy for the 2024 election. In 2018, the ruling party ‘rigged’ the polls to corner nearly 75 per cent of the votes and 85 per cent of seats. 

The US cited a lack of participation and refused to call the election “free and fair.” However, the Biden administration remained “committed” to Bangladesh for the sake of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and “encouraged” Hasina to take corrective measures. 

To read it correctly, the US has tacitly supported the Hasina government out of geopolitical considerations. Both Beijing and Delhi congratulated Prime Minister Hasina for returning to office for the fourth term. 

In short, all stars aligned in Hasina’s favour. 

Even if the majority in Bangladesh may not agree with her election, the fact remains that Hasina is firmly back in power.

So where does India stand in this contest? In a press conference, Hasina referred to India as a “great friend” that stood by the neighbour at critical moments in history. 

In the popular psyche of Dhaka, it meant Hasina expressing her gratitude to Delhi for retaining power. Considering that the majority of Bangladeshis are historically anti-India, one may argue that Hasina craftily left it to Delhi to pick up the tab for her paper election. 

Going by the recent history, it should not do any visible good to India. That is apart from behind-the-screen collaborations between the security apparatus of the two nations. 

Delhi was not responsible for the ‘rigging’ in 2018. India was keen for a competitive election, but Beijing was happiest to see Hasina establishing a virtual one-party rule like China. 

Common Bangladeshis though blamed India for giving Hasina a free pass. Anti-India sentiments peaked and China made quick advances in establishing its supremacy in Dhaka’s business and politics. 

Trouble began all the way back with the January 2014 election. In end-2013, right before the election, the Indian foreign secretary visited Dhaka and openly pursued political parties to join the contest which proved to be opposition-free. 

That was the time when the Supreme Court banned BNP’s notorious coalition partner, Jamaat-e-Islami, from participating in elections and Hasina discontinued the practice of holding elections under a nominated caretaker govt.  

The caretaker government was introduced in 1996 at the demand of the League-led Opposition. Hasina won that election. In 2014, the BNP was adamant that they would not contest without Jamaat and the poll-time government. 

Jamaat had been a security threat to India and Delhi was keen to see them out. However, the reckless handling of the situation did havoc. Hasina went away with all the benefits. Cut to 2017 and she was openly parlaying with Islamists and China. 

Over the last five years, businesses have taken direct control of policymaking in Bangladesh. The majority of the MPs, important ministers and key advisors to the Prime Minister are businessmen. 

They had pushed Beijing’s interests in policymaking and used their sprawling media empires to promote China’s image vis-à-vis India. There was a visible lack of interest in Dhaka in pushing Indian projects and interests. 

The success stories of bilateral cooperation — ranging from the supply of food and raw materials during covid to the recently concluded petroleum pipeline or ultra-cheap finance for power project — fail to attract due media attention. 

This is a nexus. And, there is no reason to believe that it will support the Indian cause in the next five years.