China Continues Its Creeping Invasion Of Bhutan Despite Ongoing Talks Over Boundary; Here Are The Satellite Images

Despite the ongoing boundary discussions between Bhutan and China aimed at officially defining their border, Beijing is reportedly continuing with its unauthorised construction activities in the Jakarlung Valley of North Bhutan.

According to a report by NDTV, the clearest satellite photos of this area to date imply that Thimphu might be left with no choice but to accept the actions taken by the Chinese in this region, which is situated 50 kilometres from Bhutan's Eastern border with Arunachal Pradesh.

Professor Robert Barnett, a Tibetan history specialist at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) at the University of London, was quoted as saying in the NDTV report that Beijing's action in Bhutan was a "case of China making a claim to an area, based on earlier grazing practices by herders, that is very recent and without precedent - and then unilaterally seizing the territory and settling it with villages, military barracks and outposts".

Barnett added that Jakarlung adjoins the Beyul Khenpajong, which is an important cultural and religious area for the Bhutanese.

"So this case represents China making a very recent, doubtful claim about an area that is of great cultural significance to a far less powerful neighbour, knowing that neighbour has few if any options as to its response," he said.

According to NDTV, the images in report from Maxar demonstrate the significant expansion of China's physical footprint in the Jakarlung Valley over a span of two years.

The most recent images, taken on 7 December, reveal the ongoing construction of a minimum of 129 structures, seemingly residential quarters, in one settlement, and at least 62 more in a nearby second enclave.

In contrast, earlier images of the same region from August 2021 confirm that none of these structures were present at that time.

Damien Symon, a prolific writer on Chinese intrusions in both eastern and western Bhutan, highlights the vastness of this development activity.

He points out that these villages are not just isolated settlements, but rather crucial elements of a larger ecosystem that bolsters China's territorial objectives. This, in turn, contributes significantly to the Sinicisation of the Bhutanese terrain, according to Symon.

The recent images have emerged at a time when Bhutan is strengthening its relationship with China, aiming to permanently halt Chinese intrusions into its territory.

Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji made a landmark visit to Beijing in October of this year, marking a first for Bhutan.

In the same month, Prime Minister Lotay Tshering expressed to The Hindu his hopes for a clear boundary establishment, stating, "We hope to see a line being drawn- this side Bhutan and that side China. We don't have that right now."

In his interview with The Hindu, Tshering did not dismiss the possibility of a land exchange agreement between Beijing and Thimphu. This could involve territories in areas like Jakarlung being swapped if China relinquishes its claim to the Doklam plateau situated further south.

King Jigme Khesar Nangyel Wangchuk of Bhutan made an official trip to India in November.

Although the joint statement released didn't explicitly detail the ongoing border discussions, it did indicate that both parties had "held discussions on the entire gamut of bilateral cooperation and regional and global issues of mutual interest."

In 2017, a protracted two-month standoff occurred between India and China in Doklam, triggered by Indian forces obstructing the construction of an illegal Chinese road in the region. Nevertheless, Tshering affirmed that it is in Bhutan's best interest to ensure that both India and China are satisfied with the outcomes of the border discussions.

Regardless of the result, Robert Barnett suggests that ''India may be concerned by the precedent that Jakarlung sets for China's willingness to abrogate treaty obligations when it comes to border disputes".

China signed a formal agreement with Bhutan in 1998 not to alter the status quo in disputed areas.

"In occupying and settling Jakarlung, it violated that agreement," Barnett added.

India's immediate worries about China's expansion into Bhutanese territory also extend to the Amu Chu river valley, situated directly next to the Doklam plateau.

After the Doklam standoff, China has built at least three villages in the valley.

Any additional expansion towards the South by China would cause concern in New Delhi, as it could position China near the Siliguri Corridor, a narrow corridor linking India's Northeast to the rest of the nation.

The Indian Army has repeatedly communicated to the government that China is approaching a red line that it should never be permitted to cross.

The strategy that China employs for territorial expansion, termed "salami-slicing" by India's first Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat, has been a standard tactic. This includes everything from converting shoals in the South China Seas into comprehensive military outposts to advancing across several locations in Eastern Ladakh.

Claude Arpi, the esteemed Tibetologist, explains that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) made advancements in five areas of Eastern Ladakh in May 2020. However, India responded assertively after a few days.

In the context of Bhutan, the Royal Bhutan Army lacks the capability to retaliate against the PLA or Border Defence Force, nor can they halt the establishment of new settlements.

The ongoing discussions could lead to a significant geo-strategic repositioning in the region, which is particularly concerning for New Delhi, which in the past was a primary security guarantor for Bhutan.

''Bhutan is slowly shifting towards the strategic orbit of China and there is not much that India can do, except if a new security agreement is signed between Delhi and Thimphu,'' says Arpi.