Pakistan Defence Ministry Says India's Refusal To Talk May Trigger An All-Out War; Another Ploy To Postpone Assembly Elections?

An all-out war is a possibility between India and Pakistan unless India begins to start talking with Pakistan, a report presented by Pakistan's Defence Ministry in the Supreme Court of Pakistan implied.

The Defence Ministry of Pakistan was presenting a report to Pakistan's Supreme Court listing reasons for delaying the assembly elections in the Punjab province of Pakistan.

The Shahbaz-Sharid led Pakistan government is concerned that if the elections were to be held now, the political party headed by Imran Khan, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI), could potentially win the elections.

"Pakistan is threatened not only by insecurity due to external aggression but also by internal instability. Both are interlinked. Internal chaos invites external aggression, therefore, India would continue with 'strategic coercion', including through terrorism in Pakistan, and exploit any opportunity at operational and tactic levels for limited military action to an all-out war," the report says.

It is worth noting that successive Indian governments had tried to resolve outstanding issues with Pakistan through dialogue but failed. The Modi government, however, is the first government that has taken a clear stance to not talk with Pakistan until it stops supporting terrorism.

This is the 'strategic coercion', the Pakistan defence ministry report is apparently talking about about.

The same report has also pulled in the Indian External Intelligence Agency, Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) as well, explaining another reason to delay assembly elections in Punjab province.

“R&AW has identified fault lines to hurt the federation of Pakistan especially by fanning ethnic issues, water disputes, and the resource capture and monopoly of Punjab and as terrorists say in Balochistan, the colonisation by Punjab".

“Therefore, holding of general elections of Punjab Assembly would fuel the situation,” the ministry said and adds that the terrorist threat might increase in the immediate future and decrease only around October 2023".

The report also points out the increased activities by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the freedom fighting Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) movement.

"The terrorist threat has also increased as compared to 2018 and 2021, as the environment in Afghanistan had worsened after August 2021 and with the withdrawal of US forces, 1,500 terrorists had been released from jails and the latest military equipment was available to the TTP fighter, which had made the threat more potent," the report says.

"In 2021-22, Pakistan opted for reconciliation with the TTP to minimise terrorism, but the strategy failed and led to an increase in terrorism incidents in KP, Balochistan and Punjab," the report adds.

The report further says, "besides, the TTP was re-grouping in Afghanistan, posing a greater threat to Pakistan adding that Afghanistan continued to offer ungovernable spaces to terrorist groups".