Terror Pattern Shifts In J&K As Jammu Sees Fewer But More High-Profile Attacks

In a shift in the terror pattern in Jammu and Kashmir, Poonch, Rajouri and Jammu districts in the Jammu region have experienced fewer but more brutal and widely-covered terrorist attacks than those in the Valley, since 2021.

Poonch, Rajouri, and Jammu districts belong to Jammu region. They are located south and west of Pir Panjal mountain range, which divides them from districts in the Valley.

In the past three years, a total of 24 security personnel and 75 civilians were killed on both sides of Pir Panjal mountain range in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K).

Out of the 251 incidents initiated by terrorists in J&K since 2021, 15 occurred in Jammu region's three districts, while 236 occurred in the Valley.

The three Jammu districts reported two, ten, and three incidents in 2021, 2022, and 2023 (until May 30), respectively. In contrast, the Valley witnessed a significantly higher number of such incidents, with 129, 100, and seven occurring in the corresponding period.

The Valley saw 60 civilian casualties while Jammu region recorded 15 deaths in the same duration.

Although more terror attacks and casualties have occurred in the Valley than in Jammu, the security establishment has noticed a new trend of high-impact incidents, resulting in maximum damage, happening in the south of the Pir Panjal range in the Jammu region.

Just last month, in May, five soldiers from the army's special forces died in Rajouri in a terror attack and two weeks prior, five soldiers were killed in Poonch when their truck was ambushed by the terrorist.

Nine soldiers, including a JCO, were killed in two separate encounters with terrorists between Bhata Durian and Dehra Ki Gali in October 2021, while in August 2022, a terror attack on a military camp in Rajouri claimed the lives of five soldiers.

High-profile attacks on civilians have also occurred recently, including the deaths of two civilians near an Army camp in Rajouri on 16 December and the killing of seven villagers in an Upper Dangri district attack between 1-2 January.

According to a high-ranking Army official, there is clear evidence that terrorists from the lower mountains of Poonch and Rajouri infiltrate into the UT, carry out high-impact attacks, and then proceed to cross back the Pir Panjal range for the Valley.

“Terrorists seem to be crossing the mother ridge at the LoC into Rajouri and Poonch, carrying out attacks and further crossing the Pir Panjal and entering the Valley,” an Army officer said.

“Fewer but high-impact incidents, especially involving casualties of security personnel and civilians, give the terrorists the publicity they seek,” the army officer added.

“The areas to the south of the Pir Panjal range can be accessed through easier and all-weather infiltration routes. However, since the terrorists lack adequate logistics support in this region, the ones who are eventually chosen to infiltrate here are more hardened and target security forces and civilians,” the officer further said.

The attacks in Jammu tend to have a higher impact, the officer said, because of the "routine nature of small-scale incidents in the Valley… as a result, at times, even fairly bigger incidents (in the Valley) fail to capture public attention which they would have if they had taken place to the south of the Pir Panjal.”

According to sources, a majority of ceasefire violations and terrorist infiltrations through the LoC adjoining three districts in Jammu region occurred in the past five years.

Terrorism is on the rise in these regions due to two main roads passing through it — the Jammu-Srinagar highway and the old Mughal Road. Additionally, the terrain of low altitude forested hills in this area is ideal for terrorists.