Chhattisgarh 2018: Sun Sets On BJP’s 15 Year-Rule, Trends Indicate Comfortable Majority For Congress

01.15 PM IST: With trends showing comfortable majority for Congress, Swarajya wraps up its Live coverage of the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections 2018

After 15 years of BJP rule, Congress is headed towards clear victory in 2018 Chhattisgarh Assembly elections. The ECI website suggests that Congress is leading in 58 seats with a vote share of 43.8 per cent. Bharatiya Janata Party leads in 17 seats with vote share of 31.9 per cent. Ajit Jogi's Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (J) comes third with 5 seats and a vote share of 8.8 per cent. Surprisingly, NOTA managed to get more vote share (2.4 per cent) than BSP (1.6 per cent) and CPI (0.5 per cent).

A close contest between sitting chief minister Raman Singh and Atal Bihari Vajpayee's niece Karuna Shukla in Rajnandgaon is in progress. However, the majority garnered by the Congress is unlikely to change hereafter.

12.45 PM IST: BJP is leading in 20 seats while Congress has stronghold in 60. Mayawati-Jogi duo hover around 10

While Congress seems to capture a comfortable majority, Raman Singh is leading by 145 votes in his constituency  Rajnandgaon. In the past, he had won this seat by a margin of more than 35,000.

12.10 PM IST: Despite seemingly poor prospects, BJP is not losing hope in Chhattisgarh

BJP slips further to 18 seats. Congress climbs up to lead in 63 seats. BJP MP from Durg, Saroj Pandey, says it is too soon to conclude after just first round of counting.

11.55 AM IST: Raman Singh is now leading Rajnandgaon. He was trailing earlier.

Trends in Chattisgarh predict a defeat for the longest-serving BJP Chief Minister Dr Raman Singh, also known as 'Chaur wale baba', where he earned the title for distributing cheaper rice for the larger section of the poor.

Raman Singh is now leading Rajnandgaon  (NDTV tracker). He was trailing earlier.

While Ajith Jogi and his wife Renu Jodi (Both JCC) lead in Marwahi and Kota respectively, Jogi's daughter-in-law Richa Jogi (BSP) is trailing in Akaltara constituencies,

11.40 AM IST: Vote Shares - Google ( via ECI Nielsen)

• Congress - 63.3 %
• BJP 25.6%
• JCC (Janata Congress Chattisgarh) 6.7%
• BSP 1.1%
• CPI 1.1%

11.35 AM IST: Several Cabinet ministers trailing

Key ministers including Kedar Kashyap, Mahesh Gagda and Brijmohan Agarwal are trailing their respective constituencies. Exit polls had earlier predicted a neck to neck contest between Congress and BJP

11.20 AM IST: Key candidates and their status.

Raman Singh (BJP): Leading in Rajnandgaon

Ajit Jogi (JCC): Leading in Marwahi

Dharamlal Kaushik (BJP): Leading in Bilha

TS Singh Deo (Congress): Leading in Ambikapur

Bhupesh Baghel (Congress): Leading in Patan

11.05 AM IST: Numbers are stabilising. Congress leads in 53 seats while BJP remains shrunk to 26 seats

Congress has fought back in the state as it seems to be claiming the vote share of the large chunk of backward community population in the state. There was 76.35 per cent turnout in polls held in two phases on 12 and 20 November, which is lesser than the 76.35 per cent recorded in the previous polls in 2013.

10.50 AM IST: Congress in 53 seats while BJP remains shrunk to 26 seats

BJP has strongholds in southern districts Jagdalpur, Narayanpur and Dongargarh, however, Congress is leading in all three seats as of now.

10.35 AM IST: BJP is leading in 26 seats, while Congress maintains stronghold in 52 seats

According to ECI trends former Chattisgarh CM Ajit Jogi is trailing at third position at Marwahi - ANI. Sitting Chief Minister Raman Singh trailing in his constituency Rajnandgaon. Congress leads in 17 out of 20 seats in Raipur division. Food minister Punnulal Mohile leads in Muneli (SC) constituency.

10.15 AM IST: BJP’s continues to slide down. Congress leads on 55 seats while BJP is at 21

Regional party alliance led by Janata Congress and CPI are leading on 6 seats while Gondwana Ganatantra Party is leading one seat. Four ministers of ruling BJP government are trailing including the current CM Raman Singh while Ajit Jogi leads at his Marwahi (ST) seat. Amitesh Shukla (Congress) leads in Rajim constituency, as reported by TOI.

09.55 AM IST: BJP’s fortunes seem to be shrinking. Congress leads on 54 seats while BJP slides down to 22

Raman Singh led BJP government may not repeat its last success this time. The gap widens between BJP and Congress. Mayawati-Jogi alliance leads on 5 seats.

09.40 AM IST: BJP leads on 28 seats while Congress at 40

Congress leads on 40 and BJP leads on 28, according to NDTV. Congress leading in Raigarh, Bilaspur, Ambikapur, Mahasamund and four out of five seats in Raipur.

09.22 AM IST: BJP leads on 29 seats while Congress at 24

While MP seems to be slipping out of BJP’s hand, it maintains an edge of 4 seats in Chhattisgarh. The Mayawati-Jogi duo has been able to lead on 4 seats.

08.55 AM IST: Last time BJP won 10 more seats than Congress and could cross the halfway mark. This time it faces a tougher fight.

The BJP and Congress had almost a similar vote share during the assembly elections of 2013, but BJP managed to get 10 more seats and thus crossed the half way mark. During the 2014 parliamentary elections, the BJP increased its vote share to nearly 50 percent but the Congress also managed to maintain it around 39-40 percent.

BJP is leading on 20 seats while Congress at 16. Others have been able to lead on 3 seats.

08.40 AM IST: Counting has already began, 40 out of 90 seats leads are here. BJP has the marginal lead

Out of the 40 seats, BJP is leading on 20 while Congress is close behind at 18. Others have managed 2 seats as of now.

08.00 AM IST: Chhattisgarh has seen 3 consecutive terms of the BJP under the leadership of Raman Singh. The 2013 elections saw a minor difference in the vote share between the two major parties but it translated into 10 more seats for the BJP.

The BJP recorded a much better performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in the state with a vote share of 49.7 per cent but the Congress also managed to almost retain its vote share at 39 per cent. The 2018 contest is interesting because the BSP and Congress rebel and the first Chief Minister of the state, Ajit Jogi have come together to contest the election. The alliance leaders could prove to be the King makers in the eventuality that the contest goes down to the wire. It is also going to reveal critical insights into how the battle for 2019 shapes up.

Issues at the forefront:

· 15 years of anti-incumbency for the BJP

· The Jogi factor