New Crime Statistics Highlight Uttar Pradesh Was Safest During The BJP Rule

A research conducted by Hyderabad-based Indian School of Business (ISB) has revealed that Uttar Pradesh was safest under the rule of Bharatiya Janata Party from 1999 to 2003. After that, with the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) retaining power among themselves, the number of heinous crimes have shot up phenomenally.

The research team, headed by ISB Associate Professor of Finance Krishnamurthy Subramaniam, collated copious amounts of data on various violent crimes including murders, attempted murders, kidnappings and abductions, dacoity and robbery, riots and arson, rapes and dowry deaths from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, collectively called the 'Bimaru' states.

In a signed article in The Times Of India, Subramaniam explained that the crime statistics of UP were compared to that of the other ''Bimaru' states because these states are quite similar in socio-political-economic terms and thus serve as useful benchmarks in an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. The crime statistics between 1999 and 2014 for these states were studied.

Subramaniam writes: "A very clear picture emerges from the data. UP has had governments by either BSP or SP since May 2002, which was the last incidence when UP had a state government led by BJP. Total violent crime in UP fell dramatically from 1999 to 2003 at the rate of 16 per cent per annum. This period coincided with the time when BJP was in power in the state".

However, since 2003 when either BSP or SP have been in power, violent crimes in UP increased significantly at the rate of over 7 per cent per annum. In comparison, Bihar which is the closest to UP in its record in crimes, registered increase in violent crimes at 3 per cent per annum. The research also revealed that total violent crime in UP in 2003 was lower than that in Bihar in 2003, and quite close to the levels of violent crimes in MP and Rajasthan in 2003. However, over the period from 2003 to 2014, the number of violent crimes in UP has increased at an alarming rate. None of the other Bimaru states have displayed this alarming increase in the level of violent crime. In fact, in 2014, violent crime in UP was 25 per cent more than in Bihar.

Subramaniam points out that within the category of violent crimes, "two particular mastheads assume critical significance". First, murders, kidnappings and abductions, and second, crimes against women - two categories of crimes that hold more significance. And in both these categories, UP has gained the notorious reputation of being the leader among the Bimaru states since 2003.

Moreover, UP also has achieved the dubious distinction of registering the highest increases in these crimes during the period 2003-14. This is despite the fact that crimes in both these categories registered significant declines during the period 1999-2003. None of the other Bimaru states have recorded such large increases in these crimes.

"Thus", writes Sumramaniam, "it is very clear from the above analysis that consecutive governments led by BSP and SP have exacerbated the lack of law and order in UP". He argues against the defence that politicians belonging to the SP and BSP may come up with -- that most cases are politically motivated.

"However, this line of argument cannot hold water for various reasons. In fact, it is precisely to counter such specious arguments that we have chosen to undertake the comparison among Bimaru states. For this argument to hold water, first, it must be the case that politically motivated cases are lodged only in UP and not in the other states of Bihar, Rajasthan and MP. This can hardly be true," Subramaniam argues.

Subramaniam contends that, in fact, the actual number of violent crimes in UP may be significantly more than the number actually registered due to the fear in that state to report crimes involving politically-connected criminals. "When the level of crime in a particular state is high, the fear among that state's population is also likely to be high, especially when the criminals are known to be politically well-connected. As a result, the percentage of violent crimes that do not get reported or registered is likely to be greater in a state where the level of violent crime itself is higher. Therefore, given the above evidence using the recorded number of violent crimes, it is quite likely that the deterioration in the law and order in UP from 2003 to 2014 is a lot worse than what is captured by the above evidence," asserts Subramaniam.

Subramaniam concludes his article thus: "Whether this evidence constitutes the tip of the iceberg or the iceberg itself, voters in UP must be concerned about law and order deteriorating under both SP and BSP when they decide to cast their vote in the coming months. The right to lead a safe life is an inalienable one that voters in UP must acquire by exercising their franchise carefully".