What The Future Holds For The BJP In Kerala

The election results from five legislative assemblies on 3 December 2023, combined with the Pran Pratishta ceremony at Ram Janmabhoomi in Ayodhya, have created a positive atmosphere nationally for what is likely to be a third term for the Modi government.

If Prime Minister Narendra Modi secures a third consecutive term, he will equal Jawaharlal Nehru's record. The continuing evolution of the new political paradigm since 2014, already irreversible, would have been further cemented.

Though the results of the upcoming general election seem certain, nothing is a certainty in the realm of politics. Anything can happen. Be that as it may, the positive atmosphere for the return of the BJP is evident from the national mood — even in Kerala, arguably the farthest from the national narrative.

The success of the ‘Sthree Shakti’ rally in Thrissur in January 2024 has only heightened the confidence of the BJP as it hopes to secure its first Lok Sabha seat from Kerala in the upcoming 2024 elections.

The BJP’s prospective candidate in Thrissur, film star Suresh Gopi, is a force unto himself. He presents the best opportunity for the BJP since O Rajagopal’s near-victory over Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram a decade ago.

Will the BJP finally storm the fort, which they have failed to do thus far, in 2024?

Importance Of A Kerala Victory For The BJP

The prospects of the BJP in Kerala has long been a topic of active speculation, considering the state's strong two-front politics.

The BJP and Jan Sangh have never been able to win a single Lok Sabha seat in Kerala and have only ever won a single seat, even in the assembly elections (Nemom in 2016).

This is unlike every other southern state, even more so because neither the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) nor the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) ever accommodated the BJP or the Jan Sangh.

Meanwhile, in neighbouring Tamil Nadu, both Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) have been allies of the BJP, as has Telangana Rashtra Samithi or TRS (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi or BRS) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in undivided Andhra Pradesh.

The presence of a sizable Christian and Muslim population has always made the BJP a bête noire in Kerala politics.

The propaganda advanced by the commentariat of the ‘North-South divide’ in the country, as a result of the BJP’s domination in the Gangetic Plains, is at its height in Kerala.

Securing even a single seat in Kerala would be a crucial counterpoint to such vile and vicious propaganda, and a victory for the BJP, which has long sought to woo the Christian community in the state. A victory in Thrissur by Gopi will inevitably need at least a small fraction of the Christian vote.

The Prime Minister, too, has long taken a special interest in Kerala. Even as chief minister of Gujarat, Modi had sought to expand the party's outreach among the Christians and Ezhavas in the state.

Ever since the rise of the BJP in national politics, its presence has been used by both UDF and LDF as a tool to secure minority votes. The demographic trends in the state, combined with the BJP’s consolidation at the Centre since 2014, have only accelerated this approach.

A short look at the BJP's electoral performance in Kerala is necessary to understand how the prospects stand in 2024.

The BJP In Kerala: A Tale Of ‘Almosts’

The first real breakthrough the BJP had achieved in the state was in the 2004 general elections to the Lok Sabha. Until then, the BJP only used to receive a middling 5-6 per cent of the vote share.

In 2004, with the impression that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was likely to retain power, combined with the polarisation resulting from the Marad massacre, the NDA reached 12.08 per cent vote share in Kerala.

Rajagopal finished second in Thiruvananthapuram, and NDA ally P C Thomas won in Muvattupuzha, a victory that was struck down in 2009 by the Supreme Court.

The NDA for the first time breached the 10 per cent vote share in the state, but its momentum was lost until its resurrection in 2014.

That year's campaign highlight was Rajagopal, who, as said earlier, lost to Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram by a mere 15,000-odd votes. It was the consolidation of the Christian community in the three rural assembly constituencies that played spoilsport for the veteran leader.

The 2016 assembly campaign became a highlight for the BJP in Kerala (still is), with the optimism of 2014 and the creation of ‘Bharath Dharma Jana Sena’ (BDJS), a political venture of the Ezhava-community organisation, the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDPY).

Through this means, the BJP aimed at increasing its popularity among the Other Backward Class (OBC) Ezhava community, which is the largest Hindu community in the state, traditionally backing the CPM.

The BDJS also involved community leaders of non-dominant OBCs, such as the Dheevaras and the Pulaya community, the largest Scheduled Caste (SC) group in Kerala. While the NDA radically increased its vote share from 6.03 per cent in 2011 to 15.10 per cent in 2016, it won only one seat, Nemom.

However, in a short time, tremendous headway was made in the state by the BJP. In the 2015 local body elections too, the BJP had for the first time secured a municipality in the state, winning Palakkad.

The galvanisation of the electorate in 2019 due to the Sabarimala issue was a golden opportunity for the BJP in Kerala. While the overall vote share of the NDA increased to 15.55 per cent, the party fell short in Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta; the latter place is where the Sabarimala Sree Dharma Sastha Temple is situated.

The anti-Hindutva polarisation among minorities gave the Congress party and UDF a stupendous liftoff. The impression that the BJP would be unable to secure victory also boosted its vote among Hindu-dominated areas.

Rahul Gandhi's projection as the prime minister in 2019, successfully cheered on by Malayalam media, ensured that the Congress took full benefit, winning 19 of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the state and securing 47.2 per cent of the vote share, with the combined LDF securing only 35.11 per cent.

The BJP’s performance in the 2021 assembly polls was its worst since 2014, and all the factors that trouble it today were evident in the run-up to the election. There were exaggerated claims of victory by the state president along with rampant factionalism. The campaign by both the UDF and NDA had focused far too much on the Sabarimala issue, which by then had been displaced in the minds of the electorate.

Adding in the LDF’s successful projection of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan as having handled the Covid-19 pandemic successfully, the NDA fell to a vote share of 12.53 per cent and lost its only sitting legislative assembly seat in Nemom.

BJP's Prospects For 2024 & Beyond

Three years on from the 2021 assembly election, the BJP state unit seems to have been reinvigorated.

K Surendran, who has remained state president, has restored some of his public image following the 2021 election results. Moreover, while factionalism in the state unit is still apparent, there have been no public outbursts.

The Prime Minister’s rousing speech in Thrissur, where ‘Modiyude Guarantee’ (Malayalam for 'Modi ki Guarantee') was the highlight of the pitch to the electorate, has enthused the BJP cadre. The victory in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh (not to mention 22 January) has created an air of inevitability about Modi's return to power nationally.

The Christian community’s hesitation in aligning with the BJP is still a threat to their growth prospects, and in Thrissur, where the community has a sizable presence. The BJP’s hope may be to use Gopi’s popularity and Chrisitan outreach in the form of the ‘Sneha Yatra’ to fill any gaps, but the ultimate choices lie not just with the clergy, but also with the laity.

Other than Thrissur, the BJP’s prospects lay primarily in Thiruvananthapuram, but the lack of a strong local candidate to take on Tharoor remains a huge negative.

The prospect of either Nirmala Sitharaman or S Jaishankar contesting is alluring, especially considering that the Finance Minister’s witty and powerful replies are likely to dent Tharoor’s image in the constituency. Her candidature will enthuse the cadre and sway neutral voters. Barring that, the BJP can only hope to finish second in the constituency.

Meanwhile, V Muraleedharan, the Minister of State for External Affairs and Parliamentary Affairs, is likely to contest from Attingal, and will likely finish second. Other than that, it would be prudent for the BJP to try out newer faces in constituencies where it has no real prospects.

The goal of breaching 20 per cent vote share in the state is a realistic aim for 2024. Come 2026, a victory in Thrissur may boost the chance of winning more than one seat in the assembly elections.

The long-term prospects are, however, muddled by the CPM’s continued hold on a section of Hindu votes, which may only be broken by a major change in the state's alliance dynamics.

The real opportunity for the BJP is not to come to power as in Jammu and Kashmir in 2015, but to dictate the Overton window. This was most clear in the July-August months of 2023 when the Kerala Speaker’s remarks about Lord Ganesh (Ganapathy) being a myth led to protests across the state, with even the Nair Service Society and Congress joining in condemning him.

The issue was first raised by the BJP, and may have gone unnoticed in the wider public discourse a decade ago. The BJP may not assume power in Kerala in the near future, but it can, and does, set the agenda.

The writer thanks Aishwarya Ajayan for her inputs.