As India Mulls Population Control Law, Here Are The Lessons From China’s One Child Policy

The birth rate of China has fallen to its lowest since the formation of the People's Republic of China 70 years ago, recent statistics released by the Chinese government show.

The birth rate was 10.48 per 1,000 in 2019 - the lowest since 1949. This means close to 1,048 babies were born for every 1,00,000 people in China.

This number is lower than US (12), England (11.6) as well as overall global birth rate (18.65). India’s birth rate is 17.81, while that of Japan is eight.

The total fertility rate - the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime - of China is 1.62 - below replacement level of 2.1. Although, due to a high population of people of child-bearing age, the total population of China saw an increase in 2019, from 1.39 billion to 1.4 billion.

What is China’s one-child policy?

A steep decrease in the birth numbers is attributed to China’s one child policy introduced by Deng Xiaoping in 1979.

As per this policy, the Chinese government fined those who violated the norm, and provided financial and employment incentives to those who complied. Reportedly, more coercive measures such as forced abortions and mass sterilisations were also used at times.

The policy was brought out due to the fear that a large growth rate of population would offset any gains made by fast growth.

Side-effects

The Chinese growth rate has slowed down to 6.1 per cent in 2019 (even this is contested). And, the falling birth rate is causing fears of a "demographic timebomb" - a smaller working-age population having to support a bigger, retired population.

It is estimated that the nation’s elderly population could reach 400 million by the end of 2035. By 2050, more than a quarter of the population will be over 65.

Overall, the prospect of China, currently an upper-middle-income country, transitioning to a high-income country are becoming bleaker. China could become old before getting rich.

The slowdown combined with a high dependant population means China may have to divert its resources away from cutting edge scientific research, defence etc to social security provisions.

Today, China is world's second largest economy but its per capita income is still only around one-fourth of that of high-income countries, and close to 27 per cent Chinese are living below the upper-middle-income poverty line of $5.50 a day.

Another challenge that both India and China face is the cultural preference for male child.

As China enforced one-child policy, there was an increase in abandonment of girl children, leaving them in orphanages, sex-selective abortions, and even female infanticide. There was also under-reporting of female births, and they were denied benefits of different government schemes.

Currently, China has 3.4 crore more men than women and by the year end, could have 2.4 crore single men of marrying age unable to find wives.

Lessons for India

In November last year, Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan said that the government is in the process of formulating a population control law. Before this, the government should carefully weigh the pros and cons, and take a hard look at the statistics.

The TFR of the country is already close to 2.3 and steadily decreasing. The number of women of reproductive age is already low and is also declining faster relative to that of men.

The issue of population growth is intertwined with other socio-cultural and political debates. Especially the issues of fast paced illegal immigration and vote bank politics.

It is true that a high population causes undue stress on the resources of a country. However, the government needs to be realistic is assessing the different motivations behind having more children, and policy’s effect on those motivations.

If the reasons relate to religious or cultural values, a legal punishment will not stop it. Instead, the parents may not report the correct number of their children. Similarly, a uniform civil code disallowing more than one wife may simply drive the practice of polygamy underground.

More over, many such mothers and children may officially become eligible for state-assistance under various schemes (as orphans or single mothers), increasing the pressure on state-finances. In a way, while previously the husband was to himself pay for multiple wives, now the polygamy would be state-subsidised.

An example would be UK, where polygamy is illegal and carries a potential prison sentence of up to seven years. However, the law fails to protect a lot of Muslim women, as close to 60 per cent of Muslim women in UK have no civil registration - a number that is reportedly inching close to 80 per cent.

Other reasons behind having more children - poverty, illiteracy, preference for more male children etc are issues that need to be addressed directly.

A population law is likely to only effect those who are relatively well-off and capable of providing resources for their children. On the other hand, those with religious-cultural motivations will find out a way to skirt the law easily.

It is important to disentangle population law with other social-political issues, and address the latter directly, rather than under the discourse of population control.

Understandably, the temptation to mix both is high, since over the years, the population control discourse has garnered broad-based legitimacy from the common people as well as the scholars.

On the other hand, the social-political aspects of population - like illegal immigration - are polarising issues, and concerns regarding these are brushed off as bigoted or xenophobic.