China Preparing To Restart Nuclear Weapons Testing? Here's What We Know So Far From The Satellite Images

Recent satellite images suggest that China may be preparing to reactivate the Lop Nur nuclear test facility in the remote Xinjiang Autonomous Region.

These images, first detailed in a New York Times report and later procured by NDTV, show developments that could pave the way for China to conduct comprehensive nuclear tests or possibly subcritical nuclear explosions, which are experiments simulating nuclear blasts using chemical explosives.

Lop Nur, a site of historical significance in China's nuclear programme, was the location of its inaugural nuclear test on 16 October 1964.

The current satellite imagery, scrutinized by experts, shows new constructions, including multiple shafts in hill-features and a new airbase. These developments hint at a potential escalation in China's nuclear testing capabilities.

The New York Times report, based on the analysis of Dr Renny Babiarz, a renowned international geospatial intelligence expert and former Pentagon analyst, underscores the strategic timing of these activities amid sensitive US-China relations.

President Biden has been vocal about stabilizing the increasingly strained ties with China, seeking common ground with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

In response to the NYT report, China has refuted the implications, dismissing them as baseless and accusing the media of exaggerating a 'China nuclear threat'.

Despite this, the satellite images over recent years depict a significant transformation at the Lop Nur facility.

The New York Times notes that what was once a modest site has evolved into a sophisticated complex, equipped with security fences and structures suitable for handling high explosives.

Notably, the satellite images reveal the construction of a new airbase near the site, the development of multiple shafts into hill-features, and a large drilling rig, approximately 90 feet tall.

Babiarz's analysis of the satellite images showed not only the derrick but also a stack of drill pipes and a pit of lubricating fluid, indicating the drilling of a deep borehole, akin to those constructed by the US at its Nevada test site.

Additionally, the images display a mini-township, believed to be a support facility for the Lop Nur operations. This township, known as Malan, houses a rig similar to the one at the Lop Nur site, suggesting it may serve as a training site for shaft drillers.

These developments at Lop Nur are part of China's broader military expansion, particularly in its rocket force, which controls the country's nuclear triad of missiles launched from air, sea, and land.

A report from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey highlights a shift in China's nuclear strategy, indicating a move away from a restrained nuclear posture.

The report notes that China, which had about 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles over a decade ago, is now expected to deploy over 1,000 ballistic missile launchers by 2028, including at least 507 nuclear-capable launchers.

For India, which declared a unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing following its 1998 tests in Pokhran, the potential reactivation of Lop Nur is a matter of regional security concern.

India's nuclear arsenal, considerably smaller than China's, relies on computer simulations for predicting the yields of any nuclear weapons that it designs.

The developments at Lop Nur could have significant implications for regional stability and security.

The global landscape of nuclear weapons testing varies, with the US, USSR/Russia, France, China, and the UK conducting numerous tests over the years.

Pakistan conducted two nuclear tests following India's 1998 Pokhran explosions, and North Korea, the newest member of the nuclear-weapons club, is believed to have conducted six tests.