Counting Day: Five Things To Watch Out For In Madhya Pradesh

After eighteen years of Bharatiya Janata Party government in the state, led by Shivraj Singh Chouhan, the focus will be on Madhya Pradesh on 3 December.

Barring the fifteen months of Kamal Nath's government, between December 2018 and March 2020, the state has been a BJP bastion. 

Even in 2018, when the BJP lost the elections, the traditional vote of the party held steady. Ironically, the BJP pulled off a greater vote share than its counterpart in the state.

While the final difference in seats between the two parties was five, ten seats were decided by a margin of less than a thousand votes.

Of those ten seats, Congress gained four and retained three, and the BJP gained one and retained two.

Gwalior South seat, for instance, went to the Congress by a margin of merely 121 votes. 

Therefore, a lot is at stake, and given the slim margins, it would be touch and go for both parties. However, five key aspects could swing the assembly election of Madhya Pradesh either way. 

The Numbers In The Malwa Nimar Region 

If Congress were to clock at least 120 seats across the state, they are required to score big in the Malwa Nimar region.

Congress picked up 36 of the 66 seats in 2018, winning 14 of the 22 seats reserved for the tribals. Across the region, the BJP could win only 28 seats but managed only 7 of the 22 seats reserved for the tribals. 

What would worry Congress is the numbers from the recently concluded exit polls that give the BJP almost half of the seats in the region, up from merely one-third in October 2023.

Quite like how the first phase of the Uttar Pradesh elections, across West UP, in the Jat hinterland, was instrumental for the fortunes of the Samajwadi Party, this region will dictate if the Congress is in any contention to form the government in the state.

Put simply, anything less than the halfway mark in Malwa-Nimar region, and Congress will be struggling. 

Is Shivraj Singh Chouhan A Spent Force

Before the election campaign got underway, around June-July, there were murmurs about Chouhan being replaced, given the anti-incumbency and general fatigue amongst the public against him.

After the recent jolt to the BJP in Karnataka, speculations were rife about the Chief Minister being replaced, and the party not being in a position to secure even seventy seats. 

However, barely four months later, all that has changed. The BJP has been clever to run the campaign around the idea of Double Engine Sarkar. 

While Chouhan may not have been the main face of the campaign, he was seen working closely on the ground, across constituencies, cementing prospects of another five years for his party.

Even the opinion polls conducted in October and November gave him an edge over Kamal Nath when it came to the choice of the Chief Minister.

Blame Congress for peaking too early or the BJP for reading the writing on the wall well in time and striking a fine balance between putting forward Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chouhan as the faces of the campaign. 

Mamaji And His Sisters 

In Madhya Pradesh, Congress has the edge when it comes to male voters. However, the BJP has a far bigger lead when it comes to women voters, and that could be the story of this election.

In a state where the margins are too close for comfort, women voters can swing the election single-handedly.

Previously, a similar trend has been witnessed in Uttar Pradesh, where women voters backed Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath for significantly improving the law and order in the state. 

In Madhya Pradesh, the Ladli Behna Yojana has been a game-changer.

The election, eventually, will be decided on the programme Chouhan ushered in the final months before the election.

For female voters, the money credited to their accounts is not only about financial support. 

Many fear that a change in the government in the state could pause or delay any future payments, and, therefore, are hesitant to vote for Congress.

Many are drawing from their experience of the 15 months of Congress government where the farm loan waivers were indefinitely delayed, first by citing the Lok Sabha elections, and then the empty coffers. 

Margin Calls 

In 2018, 10 seats were decided by a margin of less than a thousand votes, 16 seats by a margin of less than 1,500 votes, 25 seats by a margin of less than 2,500 votes, and as many as 46 seats by a margin of less than 5,000 votes.

Congress won 20 of those 46 seats.

What complicates matters further for the Congress is that this time the Samajwadi Party is fighting on 70 seats across the state and could cut through the Congress vote, further adversely affecting the margins.

Interestingly, of these 20 Congress victories, BJP managed 13 in 2013. 

For the BJP to get these seats right, everything, from booth management to women voters, should have worked in their favour on the polling day.

As per the several ground reports from the day, the party did witness a staggering turnout of voters, especially women.

However, if that is enough to carry them through the finishing line will be known on December 3. As per the exit polls, though, it's a strong advantage to the BJP. 

The Last Lap

Something went terribly wrong for the Congress in the last month of the campaign, and the impact is showing in the exit polls, especially in the Gwalior-Chambal region.

Many opinion polls were giving 2-4 seats to the BJP in September, and 4-8 seats in October. However, most exit polls are now giving in excess of 14 seats to the BJP in the region, which is also a Scindia stronghold.

This is where the party has also fielded some of its ministers from the Centre, adding to the caste dynamics. 

The other factor that may have worked against Congress is the OBC outreach.

Clearly, Rahul Gandhi’s Jitni Abadi Utna Haq is not yielding the results he may have hoped for, given the OBCs do not vote as a homogenous group.

In fact, Gandhi’s sloganeering may have only added to their confusion, prompting them to opt for ensured freebies and tangible transfers to their accounts over lofty promises.