"If Chinese Threat Disappears, Then US And India Would Not Be Friendly": Political Scientist Mearsheimer Opens Up On Geopolitical Issues

Political scientist John J Mearsheimer recently in a conversation with The Indian Express, discussed various geopolitical issues including US-India ties, China's rise, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the power dynamics of the Israel lobby in the US.

Mearsheimer, renowned for his work on international relations, highlighted the fundamental nature of states' suspicions of each other in the absence of a higher authority, emphasising the competition for power and security in the international system.

Regarding the potential for an India-China conflict, he suggested that while it's not inevitable, the competition between the two countries could intensify as China grows more powerful, impacting US-India relations.

He stated, "If the Chinese threat were to disappear, then the US and India would not be anywhere near as friendly… Alliances are marriages of convenience… They are designed to deal with specific threats. When those threats go away, the alliances usually disappear."

Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Mearsheimer attributed its cause to NATO expansion, arguing that Western actions provoked Russia.

He opined that Russia is likely to emerge victorious in the conflict, potentially gaining significant Ukrainian territory. Discussing Vladimir Putin's power and Russia's future, he suggested that Putin's position is strong, but uncertainties loom over Russia's leadership post-Putin.

On the Israel-Palestine issue, Mearsheimer highlighted the significant influence of the Israel lobby in US policy, noting President Joe Biden's frustration with Israel's actions despite staunch US support. He dismissed the notion of the lobby's influence being overstated, emphasising the need for a two-state solution to the conflict.

Regarding developments under a hypothetical future Donald Trump administration, Mearsheimer predicted little change in US policy towards Israel but potential shifts in relations with Russia and NATO.

He criticised the demonisation of Russia in American discourse and highlighted the return of great power politics amid the decline of hyper-globalisation.

Mearsheimer concluded by discussing the impact of the Russia-China partnership and the resilience of Russia's military despite sanctions. He highlighted the deepening economic and military ties between Russia and China, suggesting that China would support Russia despite international pressure.