IIT-Kanpur Scientist Manindra Agrawal Says Possibilities Of Covid-19 Third Wave Are Low

As the festival season has begun in India, the increase in vaccination and a decrease in daily Covid-19 cases showed a ray of hope, with public places bustling across the country. Even though there have been concerns about a third wave, Prof Manindra Agrawal, involved in the "Sutra Model" or the mathematical projection of coronavirus trajectory, said that the possibilities are low.

IIT Kanpur’s Prof Agrawal also stated that even if a Covid-19 third wave comes, the health resources, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, are now quite strong to handle the situation. A study by IIT Kanpur, led by Prof Agrawal, said that steps taken by the Uttar Pradesh state government to combat the pandemic were found to be largely successful.

However, Prof Agrawal had said in late August that if a more virulent mutant than the present ones emerges by September, India may see a third wave of Covid-19 peaking between October and November, but its severity is predicted to be far lower than the second wave, and if no new virulent appears, the situation is unlikely to alter.

His latest comment regarding an unlikely third wave echoed similar statements by some other experts, including veteran virologist T Jacob John, who is the former head of departments of clinical virology and microbiology at Christian Medical College (CMC), Vellore.

John said that unless there is an outbreak of a more deadly and infectious variant, the third wave of Covid-19 across the country seems improbable.

Telangana’s Director of Public Health and Family Welfare, Dr G Srinivasa Rao said on 11 October that the likelihood of a third wave in Telangana in the coming months is remote due to a combination of factors such as widespread natural immunity among the population, vaccination and a drop in severity in the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2.

But recently, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) warned that vengeance tourism could spark the third wave, with instances increasing by more than 40 per cent.

According to a report, Dr Anant Bhan, a researcher at global health, bioethics and health policy said “during the festive season adherence to public health measures is drastically going down. It is likely that there would be more possibility of exposure".

"Schools and colleges are opening, offices are calling employees back and markets are flooded with people, this is a cause for worry. However, vaccination has been the saving grace. It is likely that the third wave will not be as severe. We can expect upward trends but not a significant surge," he said as reported by Hindustan Times.