Spurt Of Defections Ahead Of Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023: Straws In Political Winds Or Flight Of Political Migratory Birds?

As Karnataka heads to the election in the next few days, the political parties in the state are bracing up for last-minute defection of sitting legislators and influential leaders from within the ranks.

While it is conventional wisdom that the politicians who sense a whiff of change in the mood of the electorate are the ones ready to take the risk to switch allegiance, en masse defection that happened ahead of some recently concluded polls has shown that it may not be the case.

The last-minute defections ahead of the 2021 assembly elections had little effect on the ruling Trinamool in West Bengal, as the party easily won a third term. A mini exodus from BJP ahead of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections was touted as a pointer to the party's plummeting electoral fortunes. Still, CM Yogi Adityanath-led government returned to power with a decisive mandate.

Speculations are agog in Kannada media and state political circles that a spurt of defections will likely hit the ruling BJP and JD(S), with many incumbent legislators and leaders likely to hop onto the Congress bandwagon. According to some reports in local TV channels, some of the Congress legislators who defected to the BJP and helped it form the government are considering a Ghar Wapasi.

Two sitting BJP MLCs, Baburao Chinchansur and Puttanna, have quit the party ahead of the upcoming elections in Karnataka.

Earlier this week, Chinchansur, a former Congress leader who defected to the saffron party in 2018 and is credited with playing a pivotal role in defeating AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge in Kalaburagi Lok Sabha constituency, appears set to rejoin the Congress.

Chinchansur, a prominent leader of the Koli-Kabbaliga community in the Kalyana Karnataka region, resigned from his post as a member of the Legislative Council on Monday. BJP had nominated Chinchansur for the legislative council seat that became vacant following the resignation of Congress MLC C M Ibrahim on March 31 after he decided to switch over to the JD (S).

Chinchansur was a two-time member of the legislative assembly from the Gurmitkal constituency in Kalaburagi district and also served as Minister in the Siddaramaiah-led Congress government earlier. However, he quit Congress in 2018 after his defeat in the assembly election and joined the BJP. Though local political observers suggest he is now a spent force, Congress is expected to field him again in the seat. Congress sources said Chinchansur is expected to join the party soon.

When reporters sought a reaction from Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, he said Chinchansur had come from the Congress and was returning to the same party. He added that the BJP was strong in Gurmitkal and Chinchansur quitting the party would not impact the party's prospects.

BJP stalwart and former Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa also refused to discuss the issue of Chinchansur's switching of loyalties, as he had already quit. "Just a few days ago, the husband and wife (Chinchansur and his wife) fell at my feet and vowed that they will not go anywhere," Yediyurappa said. ''They might have succumbed to various pressures,'' he added, saying, ''We are ready for anything.''

Earlier this month, another BJP MLC, Puttanna, resigned from the Legislative Council and joined the Congress in the presence of Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee president D.K. Shivakumar, Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly Siddaramaiah, and AICC general secretary Randeep Singh Surjewala.

A three-time JD (S) MLC, Puttanna, representing the Teachers' constituency, was expelled from the party in 2019 for anti-party activities. Puttanna alleged that JD (S) leadership marginalised him to nominate someone else from the Teachers' constituency.

In March 2020, Puttanna joined the BJP, and the party fielded him from the Bengaluru teachers' constituency of the state legislative council. He posted a comfortable victory. However, he decided to switch to Congress.

Congress is expected to field Puttanna from Rajajinagar or Yeshwantpur constituency in Bengaluru. 

At least two BJP ministers -Housing Minister V Somanna and Youth Affairs Minister KC Narayana Gowda are reportedly in talks to join the Congress ahead of the elections, with the BJP trying its best to dissuade them from switching allegiance.

While Somanna joined the party in 2008, Gowda quit the JD(S) to join the BJP in 2019. Gowda was among the three JDS MLAs who switched to the BJP along with 13 Congress MLAs to help Yediyurappa oust JD(S)-Congress alliance headed by HD Kumaraswamy in 2019.

Somanna, who is scouting a ticket for his son Arun Somanna, is believed to be upset over not being given due regard in party affairs despite his seniority.

The possible entry of Gowda into the Congress has, however, triggered protests in Mandya, where workers tore party banners and posters. 

JD (S) hit by several defections.

JD(S) MLA from Arsikere Shivalinge Gowda has already announced that he will join the Congress in the coming days. "I had said I will abide by the decision of leaders in my constituency and well wishers."

Another disgruntled JD (S) legislator A T Ramaswamy from Arkalgud, has also said that he will contest the upcoming Assembly elections but is yet to decide which party he should join.

K Srinivas Gowda. JD (S) MLA from Kolar has declared that he would quit the party and join Congress. Gowda staged an open revolt against JD-S leadership by defying the party whip and voting for a Congress candidate in the 2022 Rajya Sabha polls.

Advantage Congress in Defection Game?

Some political observers suggest that Congress will be the primary beneficiary of defection carnival ahead of the elections. However the party is facing huge resistance from within the ranks against reentry of those switched allegiance to BJP and helped it form the government.

The factions led by Siddaramaiah and D,K Shivakumar are suspicious that the defections are being engineered by the other side to help them in power stakes in the event of the party coming close to power.