UP MLC Elections: Why SP Would Be Especially Worried At The Numbers From Bareilly-Rampur Seat

Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) bulldozer seems to be in no mood to get to a halt soon. After scoring a historic majority in assembly polls, the party has achieved sweeping victories in the recently concluded biennial elections to the Uttar Pradesh’s state legislative council (MLC).

It has won 33 out of 36 seats that were up for grabs. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, both took to Twitter to congratulate the winners. Out of the 36 seats, BJP won nine unopposed — one each from Budaun, Hardoi, Kheri, Mirzapur-Sonbhadra, Banda-Hamirpur, Aligarh, Bulandshahr, and two from Mathura-Etah-Mainpuri.

However, what is of particular interest is BJP’s bumper victory on the Bareilly-Rampur seat. The saffron party won the seat after a period of 24 years as Kunwar Maharaj Singh defeated Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate Mashkoor Ahmed Munna. Considered to be a close confidant of the jailed SP leader Azam Khan, Munna could muster only 401 votes and lost the election to Maharaj by a record 4,227 votes.

In a longstanding happenstance, the previous winners of the Bareilly-Rampur MLC seat have been those propped or supported by Azam Khan, who himself won the Rampur Vidhan Sabha seat in the assembly elections for the tenth time. Interestingly, the previous MLC from the seat Ghanshyam Lodhi, also propped by Azam Khan, jumped ships and switched to the BJP a few months back.

In a clear mandate, Yadavs and Muslims from the area who have traditionally been considered loyal SP voters, voted overwhelmingly for BJP. Maharaj had secured a comfortable lead in the initial stages of counting itself. This is even more astonishing given the fact that SP’s base vote stood at more than 2,100 in number with 1,796 Muslim voters and 311 Yadav voters.

In addition, Kurmi community had 576 voters. Even with 2,683 votes up for easy grab, SP candidate Ahmed Munna could only secure 401 votes suggesting that even the Muslims and Yadavs overwhelmingly rejected the incumbent party.

This comes as a shock to SP which had appointed former MLA Islam Sabir, former district president Shubhalesh Yadav and former minister Bhagwat Saran Gangwaras joint in-charges for the election in order to capitalise on the voters from all three communities.

The Kshetra Panchayat members who in the recent past elected three block pramukhs from SP — Jagmohan Singh Yadav from Bhuta, Kirna Yadav from Fatehganj West, and Bhupendra Kurmi from Shergarh, did not vote for the SP candidate Mashkoor Ahmed Munna in the present MLC elections.

There are also reports of discontent among SP leaders after a petrol pump owned by SP’s Bhojipura MLA Shahjil Islam was demolished. As a result, voters seem to be shifting away from SP and towards the BJP.