Will the BJP unseat BJD in Odisha?

Back to some serious election business!

Good evening, dear reader,

Today's newsletter returns to on the ground electoral insights and analysis. We've got reports on two key areas - South Goa and Ganjam. The latter is where Naveen Patnaik's own assembly constituency is.

Interestingly enough in my parents' generation white polished sugar used to be called 'aska' sugar (sarkkarai). Turns out the reason is an eponymous town (Aska!) in Ganjam where Asia's first white sugar plant was set-up in 1824!

Anmol Jain has compiled insights on both these areas for you. Please keep your feedback coming on this newsletter - all you have to do is to hit reply and you can start a conversation with us!

- Amar Govindarajan

Grab your popcorn for the South Goa battle

My colleague Sharan contends that this election season, the results of South Goa LS seat would be worth watching.

North v. South in Goa: While North Goa has been BJP's bastion, Congress is the dominant force in South Goa - catholic voters being the key.

• Captain Viriato Fernandes, a former Navy man, is INDI Alliance's candidate against BJP's Pallavi Dempo, one of Goa's richest industrialists.

• Out of 20 assemblies in South Goa, BJP holds 12 in the current assembly, whereas Congress and AAP each have two.

• This makes BJP look superior but when combined, INDI Alliance hopes to put up a strong fight.

• Though BJP had won South Goa in 2014, it couldn't retain the seat. Pallavi Dempo seeks to reverse that.

Loose Statements Disease of Congress has spread far and wide - from Sam Pitroda in the US to Captain Viriato in Goa.

• Viriato landed in soup when he stated that the Indian constitution was "forced" on Goa after its liberation from the Portuguese.

• Now, can you really fault the BJP for going hammer and tongs on the issue?

• As expected (except maybe by the Congress), PM Modi to BJP's state leaders were quick to call out the "separatist" statement as an "insult" to the constitution.

• As a result, the other poll issues fronted by Viriato - corruption, guarantees, environment - have been relegated to the back.

An upset vote bank is yet another thorn in Congress' feet. People are unaware and sometimes even suspicious of its guarantees. Ganesh, a fish vendor in Margao says as much.

The bigger problem however is to assuage the upset Catholic voters. But why?

• Sitting MP Francisco Sardinha was denied the Congress ticket.

• Confusion and lack of coordination within INDI Alliance. Leaders of AAP and Goa Forward Party have shown mild interest in campaigning.

• Viriato lacks resources to fight BJP's Pallavi Dempo, a multi-millionaire.

Defections like that of former CM Digambar Kamat and loyalist Aleixo 'Reginaldo' Lourenco are hurting the Congress.

Entry of the Revolutionary Goans Party (RGP) has made it a close three-way contest which is advantage BJP.

All of these things make South Goa election hinge on a narrow margin. One X factor makes this contest even more intriguing - women voters who outnumber men in 18 of 20 assemblies.

Grab your popcorn on June 4 for Goa in this national election with a seemingly foregone conclusion!

Pandian ruling over us would be a disrespect to our forefathers

Jaideep Mazumdar, Swarajya's man in the east, sends a ground report from Odisha's Ganjam, the ‘VIP district’ in Hinjili assembly seat represented by CM Naveen Patnaik since 2000.

As one of the poorest districts in the state, Ganjam is a living example of the ‘poverty amidst plenty’.

• Resource-rich but over-exploited and dipped in corruption, the surrounding Berhampur and Aska seats are also as pauperised as Hinjili.

• The primary woe continues to be water. Rusikulia and Bara rivers shrink to small streams during summers. Come monsoons and devastating floods inflict huge losses.

• Experts blame it on illegal sand mining that is controlled by BJD leaders and fills the party's coffers.

• Home to Asia’s first sugar mill and rich in sugarcane cultivation, it has become a bitter harvest for the cane farmers

Another outcome of this dire situation is young men and women migrating out of the state in search of work.

Swarajya interacted with villagers of Ganjam district to gain a first-hand account of their woes.

• Many houses have only the elderly living in them who do not get care and attention when they need it the most.

• “At this rate Badagada will turn into a ghost village ten years from now. The elderly will die. The children will never return as there is nothing to return to,” Gomasta Nahak, a farmer, paints grim picture.

• Rama Kanta Mohanty (67), Nityanand Sahani (80), Mahendra Jana (52), Nilanchar Sabat (29), Ashok Kumar Jana (68), Balkishan Das (62), Babul Swain (19) - you must read their equally moving accounts here.

Almost unanimously, people blame the Naveen Patnaik government.

• They are even more upset after Patnaik has all but in name ceded control to ex- bureaucrat V Karthikeyan Pandian.

• With CM ailing, Pandian who is a Tamil, runs the show. Odiyas resent this and recall the British rule when Ganjam was part of the Madras Presidency.

• "Our forefathers struggled a lot to take Ganjam out of the Madras Presidency and the overwhelming influence of Tamils that time," says Sripad Naik, a lawyer.

• "We will be disrespecting our forefathers if we allow Pandian to rule over us now."

Is this the anti-incumbency that will finally propel the BJP towards unseating BJD?

That's all from my side for today!

Anmol N Jain