BJP-Led North East Alliance Looks Set To Increase Its 2019 Tally

The Bharatiya Janata Party-led North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA) looks all set to improve its 2019 performance in the northeastern region. This region has a total of 25 seats in the Lok Sabha. 

The BJP won 14 of these 25 seats on its own in 2019 while its regional partners won four seats. This time, the BJP and its partners are likely to win at least 21 of the 25 seats in the region. 

The BJP won nine of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 while the Congress bagged three, the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) got one and the remaining seat was won by an Independent. 

This time, the BJP is expected to win at least 10 of the 11 seats it is contesting in Assam while all Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) is expected to win at least one seat. Another partner — the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) is expected to win one seat. 

That brings the NEDA’s total tally to 12 in Assam, up from nine in 2019. The Congress, weakened by mass desertions from its ranks and defection of most of its leaders, is unlikely to win a single seat. 

Apart from organisational weakness and a lack of direction and purpose, the delimitation of constituencies has acted as a severe setback for the Congress in Assam. The contours of all the three seats it won in 2019 have changed drastically and now give the BJP a huge advantage. 

While the AIUDF is expected to win Dhubri, the chances of it bagging the Muslim-majority Karimganj, which was a seat reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and has just been delisted, cannot be ruled out. 

However, the Trinamool Congress has announced its intention of fielding a candidate from Karimganj and that will divide the Muslim vote. That can provide an edge to the BJP. And in that case, the BJP’s tally this time can go up to 11, and the NEDA’s tally to 13. 

The UPPL has a bright chance of winning Kokrajhar, which falls in its stronghold Bodoland. An Independent candidate has won Kokrajhar in 2019. 

In neighbouring Meghalaya, NEDA regional partner National People’s Party (NPP) is expected to win at least one, if not both the seats, in the state. 

Meghalaya’s NPP-led ruling alliance, of which the BJP is a constituent, is strongly poised in the Shillong Lok Sabha seat that was bagged by the Congress in 2019. 

But the Congress has suffered a serious erosion in its ranks and a majority of its top leaders have joined the Trinamool Congress, the BJP and other parties. 

The party’s former chief minister, Mukul Sangma, joined the Trinamool along with 11 Congress MLAs (the Congress had 17 MLAs in the state assembly) in November 2021. 

The Congress is demoralised and listless in Meghalaya and its prospects are dim. The NPP, which is expected to field its own candidate from Shillong on behalf of the ruling alliance, is expected to bag the seat without much difficulty. 

Mukul Sangma is expected to contest Tura as the Trinamool candidate this time too. The Tura seat was bagged by the NPP’s Agatha Sangma (NPP president and Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma’s sister) in 2019. 

Mukul Sangma is a strong candidate, but his prospects will be marred by an inevitable division of votes between the Congress and the Trinamool. Negotiations between the Congress and the Trinamool over seat-sharing in Meghalaya and Assam broke down on Sunday (3 March) and both the parties announced they will contest seats on their own. 

Mukul Sangma’s prospects in Tura have, thus, dimmed due to the inevitable division of opposition votes. The NPP’s Agatha Sangma (who is expected to be fielded this time too) will find the going easier. 

The BJP is poised to win both the seats in Arunachal Pradesh — Arunachal East and Arunachal West. 

Union Minister Kiren Rijiju has been renominated from Arunachal West while sitting BJP MP Tapir Gao has been fielded once again from Arunachal East. Both are expected to win by huge margins. 

The ruling Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) which rules Nagaland in alliance with the BJP is expected to win the lone Lok Sabha seat of the state by a handsome margin. 

There is virtually no opposition in Nagaland and though the Congress and some other state parties are expected to field candidates, they stand little chance of causing an upset.

Manipur has two Lok Sabha seats — Manipur Inner and Manipur Outer. The BJP won the Manipur Inner seat, which is dominated by the Meiteis, in 2019. 

The Naga People’s Front (NPF) won the Manipur Outer seat, where Nagas and Kukis form an overwhelming majority of the electorate, in 2019. The BJP candidate, a Kuki, was a close runner-up. 

The BJP stands a good chance of bagging both these seats in Manipur this time. In the Manipur Inner seat, there is virtually no opposition to the BJP and the Meiteis are solidly behind the saffron party. 

The Kukis and Nagas are also expected to vote in large numbers for the BJP, though for different reasons. The NPF is a weak force and so is the Congress. 

Mizoram has one Lok Sabha seat and the ruling party, the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), will easily win the seat. The ZPM trounced the MNF, which won this seat in 2019, in the assembly elections in November last year. 

The ZPM, unlike some other state parties in the North East, has shunned the NEDA. It is strongly backed by the Christian Church and espouses the demand of uniting areas inhabited by the Zo people of Myanmar, Manipur and Mizoram under one administrative umbrella. 

The BJP is strongly poised to repeat its 2019 performance in Tripura by winning both the Lok Sabha seats — Tripura East and Tripura West. 

Former chief minister Biplab Deb, who has been fielded by the BJP from Tripura West, will easily win the seat. Apart from the BJP being in an advantageous position since it is in power in the state, the opposition is divided and dispirited. 

Also, the Narendra Modi government had amassed a lot of goodwill because of many infrastructure and other projects it has initiated in the state, including connectivity through Bangladesh. 

Tribals are in a decisive position in the Tripura East Lok Sabha seat which is reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST). 

The Tipra Motha, formed by Pradyot Manikya Deb Barma, scion of the erstwhile royal family, had captured the imagination of the tribals by espousing the cause for a separate state for tribals. That had posed a threat to the BJP which had won the seat in 2019 by decisively defeating the Congress by a huge margin. 

The rise of the Tipra Motha had posed a threat to the BJP’s dominance in Tripura East. But the agreement signed between the Motha and the Union Government in New Delhi last week to set up a mechanism to consider the demands of the Motha has sealed this seat for the BJP. Tribals are expected to rally behind the BJP once again. 

The lone Lok Sabha seat in Sikkim is widely expected to be bagged by the ruling Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM), which is a constituent of the NDA. 

Thus, the BJP and its allies are poised to win at least 21 of the 25 seats in the North East. And if the stars favour the saffron party and its allies even more, this tally can go up to even 23 with wins of the additional seats in Assam (Karimganj) and Meghalaya (Tura).