Explained: Why Naga Rebel Chief’s Threat To Resume Armed Insurgency Is An Empty One

Naga rebel chief Thuingaleng Muivah has threatened to “resume violent armed resistance” against the Indian state if the Government of India fails to meet three demands laid down by him. 

Muivah, general secretary of the dominant faction of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) which has been engaged in peace talks with the Union Government since August 1, 1977, issued this threat after two recent rounds of negotiations with the Union Government failed. 

The three conditions, rightly deemed impossible by New Delhi, are recognition for a separate flag and constitution for ‘Nagalim’, and third party intervention to resolve the ‘Naga issue’. 

More than 600 rounds of talks have been held between the NSCN and the Union Government since the rebel outfit signed a ceasefire agreement in 1977. 

On August 3, 2015, the two sides signed a ‘Framework Agreement’ in presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to guide the peace talks towards an amicable settlement. 

But despite progress in all other areas, there has been no movement on the NSCN’s ‘core demand’ of a separate flag and constitution for ‘Nagalim’. ‘Nagalim’, or ‘greater Nagaland’, is the NSCN’s utopian goal of integration of all Naga-inhabited areas of Myanmar and Assam, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh with Nagaland to form a compact political unit, 

“There can be no concessions on these two demands. After having done away with Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir, the Government of India can never agree to enacting a similar provision for any other state. Thus, a separate flag and constitution is out of the question,” a senior officer of the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) who is involved in the talks with the NSCN told Swarajya.  

New Delhi had, while ruling out a separate constitution for Nagaland (Nagalim exists only as a fanciful concept), offered some concessions on a flag. According to those involved in the talks with the NSCN, New Delhi offered an ‘unofficial flag’ that could be hoisted for unofficial cultural and social events. 

Such a flag, however, would not have any official status and could not be flown above the national flag. But the NSCN did not agree and remained steadfast in its demand for a ‘sovereign flag for Nagalim’. 

The talks between the NSCN and the Government of India (GoI) are stuck over these two demands. Patient efforts over the last few years by GoI negotiators to explain to the NSCN leadership that the Constitution of India does not allow any state to have a separate ‘sovereign’ flag or a constitution cut no ice with the latter. 

The NSCN leadership’s argument has been that since the GoI has acknowledged ‘the unique history and situation of Nagalim and the Naga people’, it follows that Nagalim is entitled to its own flag and constitution which are symbols of its uniqueness and distinct status separate from that of other states of India. 

But New Delhi put its foot down and has held that while some concessions like greater financial and administrative autonomy can be negotiated for Nagaland, a separate flag and constitution are simply out of the question. 

Realising that bilateral talks with the GoI cannot make any progress since New Delhi is not open to the two demands (of a separate sovereign flag and constitution), Muivah has issued a third demand: to involve a third party in resolving the conflict. 

The ‘third party’ that Muivah has in mind is the United Nations or a European nation. 

But New Delhi is sure to reject this demand as well. The GoI has pushed back very strongly against suggestions for intervention of any international body or another country in resolving the ‘Kashmir issue’, and it is unlikely to agree to outside intervention in resolving the Naga issue as well. 

A desperate Muivah has now issued the threat of resuming the armed insurgency that had led to loss of hundreds of lives till the 1977 ceasefire. 

But the threat is an empty one for many reasons.

First and foremost is the fact that most of the top leaders of the NSCN are old and infirm and are in no state to return to the jungles to resume insurgency. 

The middle and lower ranks of the Naga insurgent outfit have no experience of living in the jungles and are too used to the ‘good life’ to head to the acute hardships and uncertainties of active insurgency. 

Also, Muivah knows very well that the India of today is starkly different from the India of the 1960s and 1970s when the Naga insurgency was at its peak. 

“India is a strong country today, both economically and militarily. Also, India occupies a prominent place on the global stage and is not a weak state that can be pushed around. India’s response to resumption of insurgency by NSCN will be muscular and robust. The NSCN leadership and its cadres are all in Nagaland, which has a strong presence of the Indian Army, paramilitary and security forces. Muivah cannot hope to slip into Bangladesh or Myanmar with his cadres,” a senior officer of the Intelligence Bureau (IB) which is also involved in talks with the NSCN leadership told Swarajya. 

Also, NSCN is unlikely to find safe havens in Bangladesh or Myanmar with the same ease that it did in the past. China, which had sheltered and provided arms and training to NSCN rebels in the past is quite unlikely to take such an overtly hostile step towards India now. 

The NSCN had, in the past, found sympathetic ears in some western capitals and used to draw moral and material sustenance from its sympathisers, both state and non-state, there. 

“But the world had little tolerance or sympathy for insurgency anymore. India also has a strong global presence today and other countries, especially the western nations, will be wary of taking any step that India will consider hostile. India is no pushover and can, in fact, retaliate strongly against adversaries,” Jonathan Wiles, an expert on conflicts in Asia, told Swarajya. 

Army veteran Major General (retired) Sushant Chauhan, who had served in the Indian Army’s Spear (3) Corps headquartered in Nagaland told Swarajya: “The NSCN has definitely lost its fighting edge. Over the past 47 years (since 1977), its leaders and cadres have lived in relative luxury and have gotten used to the good things in life. They will not go back to the jungles to fight. They have become too used to easy money from extortions and drug trafficking to return to the perils of the life of insurgents”.     

But perhaps, more than anything else, it is the Naga people’s weariness of insurgency and its resultant bloodshed and disruptions that will thwart any plans Muivah has of resuming the ‘violent armed resistance’ that he has threatened.

“The fruits of nearly 50 years of peace are apparent to all Nagas who want development, progress and jobs. No Naga wants resumption of insurgency. All Nagas have integrated completely and are proud Indian citizens. Muivah will find no support for his plans. People want economic advancement, good jobs, good roads and infrastructure, good governance etc. Nagaland is getting all this because peace prevails here. No Naga will endanger all this and support resumption of violence,” emphasised Benjamin Lotha, a retired bureaucrat. 

Muivah’s threat is, thus, an empty one that New Delhi will, in all probability, ignore.