A Closer Look At The BJP's Loss In Jharkhand

As per the latest trends, which are more likely to persist, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led Indian National Democratic Inclusive (INDI) Alliance is emerging as the clear winner in the 2024 assembly elections.

The looming loss is a fresh reminder for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to rethink its strategy for Jharkhand.

A key pillar for the BJP was creating awareness about Hindu unity amidst reports of attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh. The “batenge toh katenge” slogan was elevated during election campaigns. It was aimed at alerting Hindus about an impending existential threat.

However, the ground reality in Jharkhand enabled other axes of voter consolidation as well. Jharkhand is a state marked by vast inequalities, and the Members of Legislative Assembly (MLAs) elected on NDA tickets over the last two decades have not done much to address this issue.

Although other parties have also disappointed the electorate, at the aggregate level this resulted in the ordinary voter casting their vote more out of formality than genuine faith in any party. Hence the limited appeal of an emotional slogan like "batenge toh katenge".

Take the North Chotanagpur division for example, which includes Bokaro, Chatra, Dhanbad, Giridih, Hazaribagh, Koderma, and Ramgarh districts. Jairam Mahato, a relatively new face with his Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), has emerged as a significant influence here.

Even though Mahato himself is struggling to win his seat, his narrative of "locals vs. outsiders" has made a substantial impact. A key consequence of his rise as a charismatic leader is that many of his supporters (mostly Mahtos) now see themselves as distinct from the BJP and its ally, the All Jharkhand Students Union Party (AJSUP).

AJSUP leader Sudesh Mahto is now perceived as a 'VIP leader' disconnected from ground realities. Conversely, many—especially the youth—see Jairam Mahato as a younger, more dynamic version of Sudesh Mahto.

The BJP’s reliance on Sudesh Mahto has not paid off. According to the latest trends, the AJSUP is leading in only one of the ten seats it contested. Even Sudesh Mahto himself is trailing by more than 7,400 votes in the Silli constituency.

Another feature of BJP campaign was its focus on demographic changes in Jharkhand. Court cases, memorandums to officials, and leaders continuously raising the issue emphasized the seriousness of the BJP’s stance. In hindsight, it appears that the party was disproportionately relying on this narrative.

While the issue of demographic change cannot be denied, its impact is primarily limited to the Santhal Pargana division, which includes Godda, Deoghar, Dumka, Jamtara, Sahibganj, and Pakur districts.

The problem, however, is that apart from Godda, the NDA lacks a strong cadre presence in the region. There are very few individuals willing to venture into mountainous villages and warn tribal communities about the potential threats of changing demographics.

BJP’s challenger to Hemant Soren, Gamliel Hembram, is one of the few courageous faces, but such efforts remain limited.

In contrast, the INDI Alliance, particularly the JMM, boasts a strong cadre presence in the region. At a time when governments struggle to execute their policies promptly, the JMM’s cadre actively assisted the government in implementing last-minute freebie schemes.

For instance, JMM cadres themselves took charge of filling out Maiyya Samman Yojana forms for women, ensuring that Rs. 1,000 was deposited into their bank accounts every month.

Similar efforts were made for schemes such as electricity bill waivers, free electricity, and loans of up to Rs. 25 lakh. These initiatives kept sentiments in favour of the government high among voters.

Despite these deficiencies and usual scuffle over ticket distribution, BJP seems poised to win more seats than its 2019 tally. It however lacked in measuring its ally's power.

For the INDI Alliance, dominance in the South Chotanagpur division—colloquially called the Ranchi division and comprising Gumla, Khunti, Lohardaga, Ranchi, and Simdega—appears evident.

This region accounts for 60 per cent of the state’s Christian population, with Simdega being a Christian-majority district.

Here, demography played a crucial role. Christians have historically sided overwhelmingly with the Congress and the JMM, and the latest trends are consistent with this pattern.

The BJP’s decision to remain silent on Christian conversions—possibly due to its quiet alliance-building efforts in Kerala—did not yield the desired results.

One positive sign for the BJP is its improving performance in the Kolhan division, which includes East Singhbhum, Seraikela Kharsawan, and West Singhbhum districts. The party had failed to secure any seats in this region during the 2019 elections.

This time, the BJP fielded high-profile candidates like Champai Soren, his son Babulal Soren, Arjun Munda’s wife Meera Munda, and Raghubar Das’s daughter-in-law Purnima Sahu. All four are currently leading in their respective constituencies.